EASC 160gm 1st Edition Lecture 15 Outline of Last Lecture I. Globalization effect on environmentII. CO2 emissionsIII. Major IssuesIV. AirV. WaterVI. Other Outline of Current Lecture I. Perspectives of ChinaII. ReasonsIII. Why a threat?IV. Soft PowerCurrent Lecture- China is big- Theory states that states all seek balance of power does not seem to apply to how China’s neigbhors are reacting to China’s riseo Not concerned about an invasion by Chinao Neighbors spend less of GDP on defense over past 2 decades, about 50% lesso Felt militarily threatened one would think numbers rise but they don’t- Some analysts  Asian states aren’t building up defenses because they plan to rely on the US defense umbrellao US deployments in Asia have plummeted in the past 3 decadeso US is not building up defense eithero Supports Asia’s peaceful rise- Aside from question of North Korea and Taiwan military tensions in East Asia seem to focus on several island issueso These are still being handled through administrative confrontation not militaryo Diplomatic problems not military problemsConvinced, not convinced?If China isn’t perceived by its neighbors as a threat, why don’t we feel all warm and fuzzy about it?- If not a military threat why do we still feel threatened?- Taiwan is a domestic issueUS ChinaGDP 15 trillion 7 trillionMilitary 4.7% 2%- Not a big deal- US perceptions vs. others- Numbers show that we shouldn’t feel threatened1. If China is not a regular threat why do many analysts in US with political influence insist that it is a threat?- Economic leverage, issue of debt: but this is two sided not one sided- Economically interconnected- Defending democracy? China claims to want a peaceful coexistence- Taking our jobs- Limited resources, environmental degradation- Influence in Africa- Strategic Resources2. Reasonsa. Unipolar US led world, China threatens our dominanceb. US likes having an enemyi. Good for economic interestsii. Money into defense sectors, these sectors need to justify their existencec. China is big and growingi. Resources are scarceii. But China can’t do anything about itiii. No matter what policies, China in this sense will still be considered a threatd. Is communism a threat to the American way of life?i. Issue with Tibetii. Threat to American values3. How are we to understand all the disputes over small piles of rocks in the sea? (island disputes)a. Daioyutai: Taiwanese boatsb. Spratly Islands: 1998 battle between Vietnam and China left 70 deadc. Historical resentments or strategic resources?d. Identity politics over strategye. Also oil4. Ugly outbursts of nationalism?a. Georgetown basketball gameb. Carre Four, Francec. Flipping over Japanese carsd. Redirection of attention away from policy issuese. People are doing this spontaneously, reflection of pridef. Relationship between popular sentiment about government and governmenti. Government uses this as manipulation and controlii. Most damagingiii. Citizens feel pride and feel that their leaders don’t feel the same amount of pride that they do1. Beijing Olympics: leaders did not go to events5. Why a threat?a. Claims Taiwanb. Hunger for resources from economic growthc. Might promote aggressive nationalism to bolster image with citizens in times of stress6. Big 7a. Xi Jinping: reform oriented, everybody in the circle is against itb. Leader for the next 10 years7. Soft powera. 2007: Hu Jintao said China needs to invest in soft powerb. Everything seems to be in place for promotion of soft poweri. There are good slogans1. Peaceful Rise, Harmonious Society, “low profile, do not take lead” Chinese model of developmentii. Numbers look good1. 8.9 billion in global media investment2. 240,000 foreign students in Chinese universities3. Participation in multilateral organizations: ASEAN, SCO, China-Africa Cooperation Forum4. Confucian institutes are funding Chinese language and cultural studies around the worldc. BUT everything is government by the statei. Apparent in CCTVii. Publicity events1. World Expo Shanghai, 70 million visitors2. Beijing Olympicsa. Who was the audience?b. 1.7 million volunteers worked to enable a smooth Olympicsc. for foreigners or themselves?3. Welcoming Worldiii. Troubles along the way1. Tibet protests2. Air pollution8. Contrast to American imperialisma. Zheng He’s voyages were peaceful missions unlike Columbusb. Problem with soft power is that a country cannot really control image even in choreographed eventsi. Olympics  Tibet protests following the torch around the worldc. Distinction between Chinese foreign media is becoming increasingly uncleari. Media is more and more in the hands of the citizens1. Shifang Sichuan2. Wukan protest3. Ai Wei Wei gangam style: example of breaking down of bordersd. Problem China has with its international image is mainly a reflection of the problems China is confronting domestically9. Central question then becomes what is the Chinese government’s legitimacy with their own people based on?a. Domestic issues  national issuesb. Socialism? Not anymorei. Used to be identity, support of revolutions, pushing socialist image, this was when they were our enemyc. Economic development? Yesi. Making people’s lives betterd. Risksi. Not a situation without risk ii. Doesn’t necessarily put workers in a good position1. Full of danger and exploitation but things do get better2. Government doesn’t always listen to its peopleiii. What if economy slows?iv. Unevenness growsv. People's lives stop getting better or don’t get better  GDP slows  economy has to restructure  deals with bad loans and corruption  legitimacy might be loste. Alternative to Western imperialismi. Better jobs?ii. Appealing to leaders who are not willing to change their political system but want to develop their economic modeliii. Not judgmental of political systemsiv. Aide based on developmental