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USC IR 369 - Lecture 10

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MAD (mutual assured destruction)Renewed tensions in 1983In 1983, flight 007 strayed off course on routine commercial flight from NY to alaska to Seoul KoreaFlew over Soviet territory (when it wasn’t supposed to) and was shot downConspiracy theoriesBreakdown in relations between superpowersNATO operation Able Archer 83—and “The Day After”The soviets did the equivalent of what the US had done in the Cuban missile crisis: They placed all of their forward bases on alert.The Soviets apparently believed that a Western attackA KGB (soviet secret please) agent really working for the US (a “double agent”), Oleg Gordievsky, passed on a message about the soviet anxiety to contacts of ReaganTold them that the Soviets thought the US would attack first (people in Moscow were just as afraid as the people in the US of an attack); couldn’t believe soviets thought the US was “evil”Gordiesvskys report had a BIG affect on Reagan and future speeches (Ivan and Ania speech) about soviet relations“the day after” (early 1980s)depicted what would have in Missouri if there was an attackkids had to go to therapy in school afterMissouri is picked because ideas that there was a base there with nuclear weaponsWatched clip: saw explosions (actual test footage) and after effects of radiation (AH!)Had huge impact on Ronald Reagan (former actor) who had seen an advanced screeningTime to change the way the US dealt with sovietsMikhail Gorbachev (in his 50s was a baby by soviet standards) and Reagan started to deal with Gorbachev who seemed to have good intentions (risky): Man of the Year in Time MagazineBorn in 1931 and was inspired by the 60sFirm believer in communism; didn’t hope to turn soviets into democrat but he thought that he could find a positive form of communismSoviets were spending 30-40% of GDP on defense (Gorachev realized rightly that this couldn’t continue); standard of living was that of a developing country even thought it was an economic super power. Now 3-4% seems like a large amount for defense (euro countries spend less than 2% of GDP on defense)Realized that to cut back on defense, soviets would need US help, luckily Reagan had just changed his way of thinking towards soviets at the same tiem Gorbachev came into officeReagan wanted to meet and they hit it off personally (Reagan had never met a Russian up to this point)The four Gorbachev-Reagan summits1.Geneva Nov 1985Introductory meeting (talking for 5 hours, really hit it off)Chemobyl accident, worse than HiroshimaEmphasized need to reduce nuclear arsenals in both countries2. Reykjavik, Oct 1986 (Iceland considered to be neutral)Discussed eliminating all nuclear weapons3. Washington Dec 1987signed intermidiate-Range Nuclear forces (INF)Gorbechev was named man of the year in Time mag, he was a rockstar in the US. Huge success.4. Moscow, May 1988no more “evil empire”; he was photographed holding a babyReagans turn around was not popular with his own cabinetDidn’t believe Gorbechev was for real, Bush admin thought everyone working for Reagan had mush for brains and that they were too optimistic about Soviets and they hadn’t taken into account they still had a huge nuclear arsinal; Bush admin “Thank god the Grown-ups are back in charge”Once Bush admin takes over, Gorbechev started getting frustrated because Bush didn’t trust Gorbechev and the soviets like Reagan had grown toGeorge HW Bush, 41st president (1 term president)Born 1924Father was NY bankerRepublican congressman 1966Ambassador to the UN 1971-2Envoy to China, 1974-5US mission China to regain relations after relations were cut when they became communistDirector of CIA, 1976-7Great deal of difference between HW Bush and W bush; had great foreign policy backgroundFirst gulf war, Old Bush called everyone to get on board and war lasted couple hoursSecond gulf war, young bush launched war and spent 4 years trying to get everyone on boardGeorge W. Bush had only left the country twice before presidencyBush came into power highly critical of Reagan admin, basically fired all Reagan people in office.Solidarity movementSolidarity was helped greatly by pope john paul 2nd (who was polish)Semi free electionsIn USSR in march 1989 created “congress of people deputies” 80% of seats given to Communists. Chink by chink improvement by GorbechevIn Poland in June 1989, solidarity won 99/100 seats parliamentary seats it was allowed to contextGorbechev loses controlTheoretically at the height of his authority Gorb began to realize that he had let a genie out of a bottleHis reform measures, which originally seemed breath-taking only emboldened the people of the USSR to demand moreBorder OpeningsSummer 1989 Hungary decides to allow Hungarians to cross into Austria begins taking down border fortificationsLecture 10← MAD (mutual assured destruction)← Renewed tensions in 1983- In 1983, flight 007 strayed off course on routine commercial flight from NY to alaska to Seoul KoreaoFlew over Soviet territory (when it wasn’t supposed to) and was shot downoConspiracy theoriesoBreakdown in relations between superpowers← NATO operation Able Archer 83—and “The Day After”- The soviets did the equivalent of what the US had done in the Cuban missile crisis: They placed all of their forward bases on alert.- The Soviets apparently believed that a Western attack - A KGB (soviet secret please) agent really working for the US (a “double agent”), Oleg Gordievsky, passed on a message about the soviet anxiety to contacts of ReaganoTold them that the Soviets thought the US would attack first (people in Moscow were just as afraid as the people in the US of an attack); couldn’t believe soviets thought the US was “evil”oGordiesvskys report had a BIG affect on Reagan and future speeches (Ivan and Ania speech) about soviet relations- “the day after” (early 1980s)odepicted what would have in Missouri if there was an attackokids had to go to therapy in school afteroMissouri is picked because ideas that there was a base there with nuclear weaponsoWatched clip: saw explosions (actual test footage) and after effects of radiation (AH!)oHad huge impact on Ronald Reagan (former actor) who had seen an advanced screeningoTime to change the way the US dealt with soviets← Mikhail Gorbachev (in his 50s was a baby by soviet standards) and Reagan started to deal with Gorbachev who seemed to have good intentions (risky): Man of the Year in Time Magazine- Born in 1931 and


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