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USC IR 369 - Discussion: Midterm Review

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Reykjavik summit (Reagan and Gorbachev)http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB203/index.htmStanding directly outside summit are 100s of reporters, if someone leaves summit early “Disaster at summit!”, so they have ways to kill timeIts all about the press release; more so than their internal discussionsIf they changed one word, “laboratory”; there might not be nuclear weapons todayDocument 15: by the end of 1996, strategic offensive arms between US and Soviet union be completed eliminatedHow does this fall apart?NegotiationsRedlines: instructions to NOT give up certain thing; you can give up X, you can give up Y, but NEVER give up ZSoviet redline=STI only allowed to be in laboratories (it became very apparent, which made the whole deal fall apart)Mutually incompatible redline=good negotiation class activity to give this, so you CANNOT reach an agreementDocument 16 (the Russian version)Document 20IF one bullet to the head of the leader can change an entire country; country is not very secure. The case with Gorbachev and Soviet UnionPresident ReaganSee a sharp shift between 1st term and 2nd term; Ivan and Ania speech (two people that like each other wont kill each other; new idea to rid of nuclear weapons)Not good at details, early stages of Alzheimer’s, but amazing communicatorCrucial moment: Gorbachev told Reagan, you’re serious you cannot confine it to a laboratory and Reagan slid a paper to advisor asking if he was right, advisor said YES. How would NO have changed thingsMisunderstanding that lead to the opening of the wallSchabowki (council of ministers) announced travel was allowed from West to east and east to west unclearly and reporters started announcing on TV that the borders were open and at this point they couldn’t stop itBorder guards were caught by surprise of Schakowsky’s wordsIf you were a journalist in this room and had 3 min to announce to the world what had happened; how would you report it?!Schabowki intended to say that they had loosened up travel restrictions, but the public was leaps ahead of the govt. The public saw what was happening in Hungary, people just walking across the borders. So when government just wanted to make it easier to get visas, people were ready to open the wall.Didn’t even tell border guards, nobody informed Soviet union or GorbachevNobody wakes up Soviet leadership because in Moscow they’re asleep; so the underlings just went with it. Gorbachev finds out in the morningAll lead to fall of soviet union in 1991Re-closed some of the borders that night, used force to do soPunctuated equilibriumTerm by Steven J. Gould=evolutionary biologistGould saw HUGE, sudden changes, rather than a little bit of evolution everydayLong periods where things stay the same, then sudden big changes=punctuated equilibriumThis concept has been applied to social sciences such as IRMoments of accelerated changeApplied to 1989 : Punctuation =November 10th, 1989 fall of Berlin wall and immediate change from Cold war world orderProfessor Sarotte’s BookWhy was Thatcher so adamant about German reunification??Thatcher is consistent; great virtue of Thatcher is her consistency that is rare among political leadersShe had deep-rooted anxiety about Germany that she never lost; she was very attached to the cold war order because she was the most successful politician in it.Political misstep=she didn’t realize how far along it was; she thought she could stop it but she couldn’t (France realized they could NOT stop it, so he gets ahead of the process, and decides if German reunifies then they want a common currency)She ran into A LOT of surprises in researching her bookFamous cake incident: Thatcher and Kohl rising stars in their parties and could NOT stand each other. He ended the meeting early saying there was an emergency, then he walked to café and ordered a cakeMIDTERMNO current news item2 Short IDS (you will have a choice)1 essay4 readingsPinder and UsherwoodMarshHer BookReykjavik FileThemesThings that went right in cold war EuropeEuropean integrationPeaceful end to Cold War2nd half of 20th century was successful period in European politicsDiscussion/Midterm review 01/11/2011 19:13:00← Reykjavik summit (Reagan and Gorbachev) ←← http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB203/index.htm- Standing directly outside summit are 100s of reporters, if someone leaves summit early “Disaster at summit!”, so they have ways to killtime- Its all about the press release; more so than their internal discussions- If they changed one word, “laboratory”; there might not be nuclear weapons today- Document 15: by the end of 1996, strategic offensive arms betweenUS and Soviet union be completed eliminatedoHow does this fall apart? - NegotiationsoRedlines: instructions to NOT give up certain thing; you can give up X, you can give up Y, but NEVER give up ZoSoviet redline=STI only allowed to be in laboratories (it became very apparent, which made the whole deal fall apart)oMutually incompatible redline=good negotiation class activity to give this, so you CANNOT reach an agreement- Document 16 (the Russian version) - Document 20IF one bullet to the head of the leader can change an entire country; country is not very secure. The case with Gorbachev and Soviet Union- President ReaganoSee a sharp shift between 1st term and 2nd term; Ivan and Aniaspeech (two people that like each other wont kill each other; new idea to rid of nuclear weapons)oNot good at details, early stages of Alzheimer’s, but amazing communicator- Crucial moment: Gorbachev told Reagan, you’re serious you cannot confine it to a laboratory and Reagan slid a paper to advisor asking if he was right, advisor said YES. How would NO have changed things← Misunderstanding that lead to the opening of the wall- Schabowki (council of ministers) announced travel was allowed from West to east and east to west unclearly and reporters started announcing on TV that the borders were open and at this point they couldn’t stop it- Border guards were caught by surprise of Schakowsky’s words- If you were a journalist in this room and had 3 min to announce to the world what had happened; how would you report it?!- Schabowki intended to say that they had loosened up travel restrictions, but the public was leaps ahead of the govt. The public saw what was happening in Hungary, people just walking across theborders. So when government just wanted to make it easier to get visas,


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