GEOG 111 1st Edition Lecture 10 Outline of Last Lecture I Temperature Trends II Complexities of climate change Outline of Current Lecture I Complexities of climate change cont d II Threats of climate change III Indirect effects of climate change IV How should we handle uncertainty Current Lecture I Complexities of Climate Change cont d a By adding greenhouse gases atmosphere is warmed especially the surface i Encourages more convection air transports heat upward because heated air becomes more buoyant ii More clouds 1 Lower cumulus clouds effectively block shortwave radiation from reaching the surface b Greenhouse effect is pushing the climate towards a limit If the climate reaches that limit it will change over a very short amount of time c Global circulation models takes the atmosphere and divides it into blocks i Simultaneously tries to predict what changes will occur in each of those blocks over a specified period of time ii May take weeks or a month to run a single model iii Shortcomings of the models 1 Incomplete understanding of the earth atmosphere system 2 Computer memory and processing speeds are getting much faster but are still limited a Best device we have for predicting the future but particulars are not always guaranteed look for commonalities d Other controls of greenhouse gas climate change i Particulate matter and aerosols 1 Reflect short wave radiation slight cooling effect 2 Increases brightness or cloud albedo of clouds ii Air quality is increasing even in areas that are rapidly growing 1 Less particulate matter in the air but causing more solar radiation in the air 2 Due to laws and air quality standards II Threats of climate change a Plant animal extinctions These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute b More evaporation because the water is warmer more water in the atmosphere clouds but also more droughts especially in marginal areas dwindling food supply especially in developing countries c More water vapor in atmosphere creates potential for more heavy rain and flash flooding i Warmer conditions more convection thunderstorms where smaller areas get more rain and broader areas less rain d All in all more hydro climatic variability e Global warming is concentrated in high latitudes i Melting ice caps sea level rises thermal expansion of water costal flooding f Indirect effects i Rapid melting of Greenland ice sheet would significantly influence slow the Gulf Stream 1 Could put western Europe in an ice age because of salinity differences melted freshwater meeting salt water ii Permafrost melt and methane release 1 Stability of soil decreases iii Acidification of oceans 1 Portion of CO2 goes into oceans which slowly lowers pH 2 Marine organisms suffer and die off even from small changes g How should we handle inherent uncertainty on climate change i Over time global average seal level is continuing to rise 1 Could possibly reach a 3 increase 2 Would be catastrophic for costal areas ii Depends on amount of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere
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