GEOG 111 1st Edition Lecture 1 Outline of Last Lecture n/aOutline of Current Lecture I. Background: developing a forecastII. Elements of a forecastCurrent LectureI. Background: developing a forecasta. Forecasters utilize 3 resources in making a forecast:i. Weather models- computers that use physics to simulate atmospheric conditions of the futureii. Climatologies- tell what conditions you would normally expect1. Usually a good starting point for weather forecasters and may indicate that a weather model needs to be tunediii. Forecaster knowledge- something to keep in mind when reading forecasts1. Pattern recognition- experienced forecasters in an area can recognize patterns and question modelsII. Elements of a forecasta. Temperaturei. High- maximum temperature (during daylight hours/mid-late afternoon)ii. Low- minimum temperature (typically 5-8 in the morning while the sun is rising)iii. Heat index- provides a measure of what it actually feels like outside by accounting for the humidityb. Precipitationi. Probability of precipitation- chances of measurable (100th of an inch) precipitation at a given pointii. Wording within a forecast: 20% = slight chance, 30-50% chance, 60-90% likely, 100% definitelyiii. Amounts of precipitation- <0.10” (min) to 1.00-2.00” (max)c. Weather typesi. Listed in terms of increasing intensity: “light rain”, “rain”, “rain may be heavy at times” (>1” rain)ii. Showers- alternating between precipitation and no precipitationThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.1. Most common in the summeriii. Thunderstorms- accompanied by strong winds and evident thunderd. Windi. Wind speed1. Taken in open areas (commonly around an airport) where buildings, trees, etc. can’t slow the wind downii. Wind direction- the direction the winds are blowing
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