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UNC-Chapel Hill GEOG 111 - Elements of a Forecast cont'd and Solar/Terrestrial Radiation

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GEOG 111 1st Edition Lecture 2 Outline of Last Lecture I. Background: developing a forecastII. Elements of a forecastOutline of Current Lecture I. Elements of a forecast (cont’d)II. Forecast skilla. Accuracyb. Factors involvedIII. Specificity of a forecastIV. Solar and Terrestrial RadiationCurrent LectureI. Elements of a forecasti. Wind speed1. Pertain to open landscapes (commonly around an airport) where buildings, trees, etc. can’t slow the wind downii. Wind direction- the direction the winds are blowing fromiii. What are some situations in which it would be useful to know the wind direction and why? 1. Air travel- planes always land in the wind and take off into the wind because they get more lift 2. Hurricane/severe thunderstormsII. Forecast skilla. Accuracy depends on the length of the forecast and the time of yeari. At the point where climatology and weather models cross… rely only on climatologyii. Weather models’ skills decrease with time1. Weather models should be trusted 3-5 days into the future but after that it’s better to rely on climatologyThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.iii. Models have difficulty with summer thunderstorms because they only cover large-scale areas and don’t pick up on little occurrences b. What factors are involvedi. The nature of the forecast outlet1. Proximity to forecast locationa. Local outlets will be more accurateb. For example: The Raleigh National Weather Service will be moreaccurate than Accuweather2. The size of the region3. How well they know climatology and recognize its patternsa. For example: Greg Fishel at WRAL has been in the area since 1980III. Specificity of a forecast a. Low- generalized; gives probability of precipitation and temperatureb. Moderate- high/lowc. High- much more detail; recognizes humidity, wind, trends and puts in context to locationIV. Solar and Terrestrial RadiationI. Radiation is energy that comes in a wide variety of forms (the electromagnetic spectrum)a. Discriminated on the basis of wave lengthi. Wavelength is the distance from one peak to anotherb. Short end- powerful gamma rays that can go through solid materialsc. Long end- microwaves and radio waves that have long wavelengths and are far less


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UNC-Chapel Hill GEOG 111 - Elements of a Forecast cont'd and Solar/Terrestrial Radiation

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