GEOG 111 1st Edition Lecture 2 Outline of Last Lecture I Background developing a forecast II Elements of a forecast Outline of Current Lecture I Elements of a forecast cont d II Forecast skill a Accuracy b Factors involved III Specificity of a forecast IV Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Current Lecture I Elements of a forecast II i Wind speed 1 Pertain to open landscapes commonly around an airport where buildings trees etc can t slow the wind down ii Wind direction the direction the winds are blowing from iii What are some situations in which it would be useful to know the wind direction and why 1 Air travel planes always land in the wind and take off into the wind because they get more lift 2 Hurricane severe thunderstorms Forecast skill a Accuracy depends on the length of the forecast and the time of year i At the point where climatology and weather models cross rely only on climatology ii Weather models skills decrease with time 1 Weather models should be trusted 3 5 days into the future but after that it s better to rely on climatology These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute III IV I iii Models have difficulty with summer thunderstorms because they only cover large scale areas and don t pick up on little occurrences b What factors are involved i The nature of the forecast outlet 1 Proximity to forecast location a Local outlets will be more accurate b For example The Raleigh National Weather Service will be more accurate than Accuweather 2 The size of the region 3 How well they know climatology and recognize its patterns a For example Greg Fishel at WRAL has been in the area since 1980 Specificity of a forecast a Low generalized gives probability of precipitation and temperature b Moderate high low c High much more detail recognizes humidity wind trends and puts in context to location Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Radiation is energy that comes in a wide variety of forms the electromagnetic spectrum a Discriminated on the basis of wave length i Wavelength is the distance from one peak to another b Short end powerful gamma rays that can go through solid materials c Long end microwaves and radio waves that have long wavelengths and are far less powerful
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