Review for Exam II CTE 3809 Trend Analysis and Forecasting Spring 2015 20 Multiple Choices 1 point x 20 20 points 10 Short Answer Questions 2 points x 10 20 points 40 points Ch 4 Cultural Indicators a trend so fundamental that it indicates a critical restructuring John Naisbitt Megatrends of culture shifts in lifestyles changes in generational cohorts or mirror cycles in the economy Faith Popcorn created BrainReserve a marketing consultancy founded in 1974 first book The Popcorn Report 1991 second book Clicking 1997 identifies 17 specific trends clicking the clear connection between a trend and a business concept o Cultural trends arise from 3 sources 1 High culture fine and performance area 2 Low culture activities pursued locally by special interest groups outside mainstream awareness 3 Pop culture movies tv music celebs Cocooning stay at home syndrome trend based on connection between people s stressful work lives and hectic social lives and their wish for tranquil haven at home Counter trends developed by Faith Popcorn for every trend there is a flip side Ex watching diet and exercising then rewarding with ice cream Stan Davis coined mass customization in 1987 the process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Chris Anderson created The Long Tail of the Demand Curve data sales on vertical axis stock ranked by popularity on horizontal axis Environmental scanning a method of systematically tracking and analyzing trends using media sources 1 Allows any executive to monitor cultural indicators that alter the business environment and change consumers purchasing behavior A part of the long term forecasting process Media scan collecting bits and pieces from a broad spectrum of sources Interviewing ask people and experts cultural and lifestyle changes seen just by conversing In depth interview one on one interation attempt to gain deep understanding of a consumer s relationship to a product or product category advantages flexibility honesty comfort Focus group interview more formal moderator uses predesigned set of questions to guide discussion one or more people can dominate not made for consensus Delphi method Goal of method to encourage debate by making interaction independent of personality eliminates bias and anger from debate situation Scenario writing evolution from present situation to one or more possible futures Nystrom s Framework Spirit of the Times way to evaluate and organize cultural indicators Observation involvement in concrete activities in natural settings as a way to understand people s behaviors attitudes and beliefs Kim s model of the forecasting process 2011 the environment is scanned to search for current and near future trends in the economic political social and culture arenas the info is then analyzed interpreted and synthesized Ch 5 Color Forecasting Color forecaster help companies decide on the right color story to sell the product track color evolution 2 sense spirit of times combine knowledge of color theories with understanding of human behavior and acute observational skills produce color forecast 18 24 months in advance of season Color Association of the United States CAUS founded in 1915 based in manhattan a non profit trade association that provides color forecasting to members including corporations and designers concerned with apparel interiors furnishings paint automobiles Color Marketing Group CMG formed in 1962 based in Washington DC focus is on color as a marketing tool 8 weeks prior to workshops members mail in color samples and individual color direction forecast Goal of workshops is to indicate color direction not specific hues The most important aesthetic criterion for preference of many forms including An element of design used in building and maintaining brand identity Identify target markets Color in marketing apparel Color preferences Universal view most colors are consistent in preferences and meaning across the world Individual differences color preferences linked with personality Cultural ethnic influence black white red evoke similar responses around the world next 2 are yellow and green then blue results from combo of natural environment and indigenous culture Color cycles 2 phenomenas o Periodic shifts in color preferences o Patterns of repetition in popularity of colors Long wave cycles recurrences of color themes traced through centuries cycles through all phases 3 Pendulum swings identified by Everett Brown Evolution of a color family seasonal continuity individual colors will move in and out frequently but it s more important to track color groups rather than specific colors Color family yellow green o avocado and olive late 1960s 1970s o Defined as bad taste by 80s o Reemerged as kiwi lime 1995 o wasabi 2000 Color research fashion color changes every 2 years growing cross pollination between industries and product categories regarding color evolution Key calendar dates o Seasonal runway shows o Textile trade shows o Premiere Vision Color direction inclination or tendency towards change in o Color temp warmer cooler o Value lighter darker 4 o Intensity clearer grayer o Importance of hue in out a new color is directional when it s trend setting or trend defining Premiere Vision international textile industry fair held twice a year in paris Fabric mills make presentations concerning coming season show organizers offer their own forecast European color and season consultants display Color palette the 8 10 colors selected during the initial design phase that signal the personality of the collection Move from trendy to mainstream Tint white added to color Shade black added to color Tone grayed color concentrated intense strong color deep rich dark color subdued neutralized with black white gray or color s complement clear basic colors on wheel Hue refers to the color each color system designates a set of basic colors Intensity strength or purity of the color Clearer grayer Aka saturation Value lightness darkness of a color Color specifications code Combine exact notations to specify an individual color use number and letter Delivered with a set of color cards fabric swatches and yarn samples Munsell Color System 1 600 colors by hue value and chroma intensity Pantone Color System 1 225 colors by name and color code Munsell color system Munsell book of color 1600 colors chips arranged equally by hue value and chroma Pantone color system 5 1225 colors by name and color code Develops