CTE 3809 EXAM 1 Ch 1 The Fashion Forecasting Process Forecasting The process that translates information into a form that allows learning to take place Anticipates future developments by watching for signals of change in current situations and events and applying the forecasting frameworks to predict possible outcomes Developing a forecast Look to the past look to the future develop the forecast evaluate the forecast by Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts 1 2 Determine the causes of change in the past 3 Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior 4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future analysis 5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques 6 Determine reasons for significant deviations from expectations 7 Revise the forecast when necessary Forecasts should identify The source of inspiration or information The pattern of change Direction of change Tempo of change Classic Fad Fashion A style widely accepted and stays in fashion for an extended period of time An item or style that is introduced gains visibility generates multiple purchases or replacement purchases and reaches a plateau level of widespread acceptance that persists over a long time period An item or style that delivers at least the core attributes desirable to the consumer while avoiding extremes in styling A short lived style that affects a limited part of the population A trend of short duration that is introduced gains rapid visibility and acceptance among a relatively small contingent of consumers and fades quickly because it is not supported by corresponding lifestyle changes Style is accepted and diffused among people at moderate rate it is slowly accepted in the beginning rapidly rises reaches its peak and gradually declines Kim s model of the forecasting process Trend General direction or movement of fashion Identifiable similarities across information related to styles details or other aspects of appearance characterized by a building awareness of this new look and an accelerating demand among consumers Diffusion Curve A visualization of diffusion of innovation as a bell curve showing the progressive participation of consumers beginning with innovators and early adopters proceeding to majority adoption and concluding with laggards NUMBER OF ADOPTERS FASHION CLASSIC FAD TIME DIFFUSION CURVE Pendulum Swing Periodic movement of fashion between extremes Long term forecasting 5 years and development A way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organizations s direction A forecasting timeline sufficient for decisions related to repositioning or extending product lines igniting new businesses riving brand images or planning new retail concepts Short term forecasting 1 year ahead Involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the market place The process that allows segment of the textile apparel pipeline to coordinate seasonal goods around looks that can be communicated to the customer through the press and stores Trend analysis from a variety of sources understanding of its components Preliminary stage of product development During this stage ideas for products are collected The phase in forecasting when a trend or phenomenon is dissected to achieve a more complete A group of consumers who share preferences and demographic characteristics the basic unit of Cohorts consumer research Megatrends Style Design A trend so fundamental that it can indicates a critical restructuring of culture The characteristic or distinctive appearance of a garment the combination of features that makes it different from other garments A particular or individual interpretation version or treatment of a style Engine of fashion Goals satisfied by fashion Differentiation Vs Imitation Differentiation Standing out Imitations Fitting in Target Market A slice of the population more likely than others to adopt an innovation at a particular time in the diffusion process or be attracted to the tangible and intangible attributes of a product company image or service An approach that focuses on attracting a specific purchaser one who s lifestyle preferences and aspirations predispose them to see a match with the offer Translated as Spirit of the times Fashion is a reflection of the times in which they are created and worn Style interactions Apparel Cuisine Sports Architecture Interiors Automobiles Toys Zeitgeist Avocations and Pastimes Nystrom s framework In 1928 Nystrom attempted to list factors that guide and influence the character and direction of fashion the list provides a framework for observing the formation of the zeitgeist Dominating events ideals social groups attitude and technology Ch 2 Introducing Innovation Diffusion of innovation consumers participating in each stage The process in which innovations spread within a social system including the kind of Innovation is something new submitted to the public s attention for approval and adoption A new color or color range A new fiber fabric or fabric property The modification of a silhouette or detail A new way to wear an accessory A new mood expressed in a distinctive style A new definition of appropriateness Roger s consumer adoption process model know 3 theories of each 1962 1983 Awareness the stage at which a consumer first realizes that an innovation has been proposed Evaluation The time required to evaluate the information and form an attitude toward the Interest the period when the consumer seeks information about the innovation innovation Trial The testing of the innovation before adoption Adoption or rejection of the innovation Knowledge A stage similar to awareness at which a consumer first learns of an innovation Persuasion The period when a consumer forms a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward the innovation Decision The activities leading up to adoption or rejection Confirmation The stage after adoption when a consumer seeks validation that the decision was Implementation Actually using the innovation correct Innovator Opinion Leader circle Late adopter goes on sale Laggard want it People who adopt new product innovations relatively earlier than others in their social group Young educated affluent consumer less price sensitive personality trait of innovativeness very interested in the particular product category Individuals who are influential on the attitudes and decision making of people in