20 Multiple Choices 1 5 points x 20 30 points 10 Short Answer Questions 2 points x 5 20 points 50 points Review for Exam II CTE 3809 Trend Analysis and Forecasting Spring 2013 Ch 4 Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt Megatrends Naisbitt was a futurist and consultant he published Megatrends in 1982 He coined the term megatrend to refer to major shifts in society that have a definite impact on individual lifestyles and is also considered a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society His method for research focused on scanning a variety of media sources for both editorial and advertising content to identify patterns which he would then analyze to determine what those patterns reveal In his book Megatrends Naisbitt identified 10 megatrends including o The move toward an information based economy o o o o The dual compensations of high tech and high touch products The shift to a global economy The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks The shift from an either or to a multiple option society Faith Popcorn Cofounded the marketing consultancy firm Brain Reserve in 1974 and is known for her books The Popcorn Report Clicking and Evolution Her forecasting methodology involves Scanning a continuous stream of periodicals o o Monitoring pop culture o o Shopping stores across the country and abroad Interviewing consumers about a variety of product categories Argued that trends are predictive because they start small and gradually gather momentum Mentioned that the best way to pick up on early indications of new trends is to understand the evolution of current trends o Trends go through different chartable stages and by the time a trend phases itself out it will have gone through many transformations Said that a lifestyle trends take about ten years to work through the culture and reach all market levels Lifestyle trends reorganize consumer priorities and influence decisions in every aspect of life Cocooning Term coined by Faith Popcorn Stay at home syndrome building in 1981 cocooning Popcorn made the connection between people s stressful work lives and hectic social lives and their wish for a tranquil haven at home Had repercussions in multiple industries e g home renovation master bedroom suite larger baths casual comfortable basic fashion bed linens housewares car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic Brain Reserve Methodology 1 Method to interpret the signals Brainstorming and interviewing experts Range of forecasts Forces shaping the future Counter trends Another term coined by Faith Popcorn Trends that contrast with another prevailing set of trends both of which offer opportunities for businesses because of the contradictory aspects of human behavior for every trend there are counter trends Some concepts can click with one or more trends and be contradicted by others Example a person may watch his diet and exercise strenuously and reward himself with a pint of premium ice cream Stan Davis Has a PhD in social sciences and by the early 1980s he had become a futurist writer speaker and consultant on changes in society and their impact on business Coined the term mass customization Applied the idea of life cycle to the economy to predict the end of the current information economy Said that increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier Tangible attributes less important than intangible values Mass customization By Stan Davis 1987 The process of delivering a unique personalized or customized product using mass production techniques and at a cost competitive with mass production o Using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services a process that has been used by apparel manufacturers and retailers since the mid 1990s Chris Anderson Editor in chief of Wired Magazine The trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people 2 Anderson using his skills as a journalist interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern Gave his insight a catchy name the long tail to catch people s attention Anderson 2006 o o In the 21st century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice Sales on Y axis and stocks ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis showed a demand curve o The curve never reached zero No matter how large the inventory everything sold at least some of the time creating the long tail of the demand curve This graph encompassed both the commercial hits and the noncommercial non hits and consumers from mainstream to niches to a market of one Decades Time frame Techniques for gathering signals Gaining access to proprietary data from high profile Internet based companies stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting pattern Interviewing Experts Internet business CEOs Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and Methods to interpret the signals Applies to online marketing Range of the forecasts Environmental scanning Media scan A method of systematically tracking and analyzing trends using media sources Research Strategy 1 of Environmental Scanning Collecting bits and pieces from a broad spectrum of sources seeing hints and glimpses of possible futures and hearing about new directions then linking these signals shaped into a vision of what the future may be and logically supported before being dubbed a trend Interviewing Research Strategy 2 of Environmental Scanning Ask people ask experts Focus group interview In depth interview In depth interview Focus group interview A research technique in which a researcher interviews a single consumer at a time in a lengthy dialogue aimed at discovering the meaning products or brands have for that consumer One of the most popular techniques in consumer research Consist of a small number of consumers who are brought together to talk about topics of interest to the researcher in a group interview setting Used to understand both consumer behavior in general and consumer responses to specific Forecasters may use focus group interviews to explore consumers exercise behavior to develop a products or brands new product 3 Delphi method Delphi method anonymous Identify the experts Introduce an issue for debate Round one obtain initial response from experts Summarize the responses Report on round one