CTE3809 EXAM II ReviewChapter 4 – Cultural IndicatorsJohn Naisbitt (1982): “Megatrends”Megatrend: A trend so fundamental that it indicates a critical restructuring of culture. It involves shifts in lifestyles, reflect changes in generational cohorts, or mirror cycles in the economy. Trends of this magnitude may be felt over the period of a decade, from the first time that they surface to the time that they influence purchasing decisions on a mass scale. Example: A move toward an information based economy, dual compensations of high-tech and high-touch products.• The move toward an information-based economy. • The dual compensations of “high tech” and “high touch” products.• The shift to a global economy.• The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks.• The shift from an either/or to a multiple-option society.--Trends and ideas begin in cities and local communities rather than in urban centers like NYC and Washington, D.C.--Methods would not work today, because most newspapers are part of larger media organizations; the matter in which content is chosen is not determined locally, so not in a way that would be ideal to identify trends in an areaTIME FRAME: DecadesTHE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS: Content analysis of 6,000 local newspapers each monthTHE METHODS TO INTERPRET SIGNALS: Check the shifting space devoted to an issueTHE RANGE OF THE FORECASTS: A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society“Information-based economy” started in 1950s; “with important things in culture, not single year that the trend started” (ex: Fine Art started in 1910)Faith PopcornAbout Popcorn:• Created “BrainReserve” (a marketing consultancy); founded in 1974• The Popcorn Report (1991) Faith Popcorn’s first book• Clicking (1997) Popcorn’s second book; identifies 17 specific trends; “Clicking” means the clear connection between a trend and a business concept• Identified/saw “cocooning” concept begin to form“Popcorn says that a trend takes about 10 years to work through the culture and reach all market levels; lifestyle trends that recognize consumer priorities and influence decisions in every aspect of life”TIME FRAME: DecadesTHE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS of trend changes:--Scanning 350 magazines, trade journals, newspapers, and newsletters.--Monitoring top television shows, first-run movies, Broadway plays, best-selling books, and hit music.--Shopping stores in America and abroad for new products.--Interviewing 4,000 consumers each year about 20 different product categories.Clicking: Cultural trends arise from 3 sources:1. High Culture (fine and performance area)2. Low Culture (activities pursued locally by special interest groups, outside mainstream awareness)3. Pop Culture (movies, TV, music, & celebrity)Cocooning• “Cocooning” (a stay-at-home syndrome building in 1981) had repercussions in multiple industries (e.g., home renovation, master bedroom suite, larger baths, casual, comfortable basic apparel/fashion, bed linens, housewares, car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic.) • trend formed based on connection between people’s stressful work lives and hectic social lives and their wish for a tranquil haven at homeCounter-trends• A Faith Popcorn concept/trend• For every trend, there is a counter-trend (or “flip sides”). This mirrors the sometimes-contradictory aspects of human behavior: the same person may watch his diet, exercise strenuously, and reward himself with a pint of premium ice-cream. Money can be made on a trend and on its flip-side if business executives are canny enough to see the “click” (connections).• Example: Cocooning + Adventure travelStan Davis: Understanding a Blurred World In new environment, executives may feel as if they are losing their balance, but Davis says that they are experiencing “blur”; to see clearly, they need to adjust to constant acceleration• Increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time (getting products to stores in weeks, instead of months or years)• Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier.• Tangible attributes less important than intangible values.o Intangible components include: The traditional concept of services The new concepts of services linked to products (such as computer simulation that allows customers to try products before buying) Information from databases to media buzz and insiders’ viewpoints on websites Emotions such as brand loyalty, status expressed in logos and labels, and identification with celebrities• Coined “mass customization” by Davis in 1987 TIME FRAME: Decades Dominance is shifting from the information economy to biotechnologyTHE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS: Reading, Discussion, and Ideas that are powerful and playful)Mass customization• Coined by Stan Davis in 1987• The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services• http://www.zazzle.com/createChris Anderson: The Long Tail of the Demand CurveTIME FRAME: DecadesTHE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS: Interviewing Experts & Internet business CEOs; Gaining access to proprietary data from high-profile Internet-based companiesTHE METHODS TO INTERPRET SIGNALS: Plotted the data—sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis—and hypothesized about resulting patternTHE RANGE OF THE FORECASTS: Applies to online marketing & bloggers; E-Bay; Etsy• “The trick to trend-spotting is to ask the right people.”• Anderson, using his skills as a journalist: o Interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related researcho Examined data and discovered a repeating patterno Looked for additional exampleso Gave his insight a catchy name—“the long tail” to catch people’s attention (Anderson, 2006)• In the 21st century, hits will still happen but niches represent the new, emerging marketplace—a marketplace of infinite choice (example: putting lesser-known albums in juke box will still create profit because storage costs very little and people will choose it; sales aggregated to make a significant profit; page 130)• Curve shows few items selling a lot and many items selling far fewer copies (for the juke box example); curve never reaches zero• No matter how large the inventory, something will sell at least some of
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