Trend Analysis Exam 2 CHAPTER 4 John Naisbitt Used newspapers to find hints of developing trends over time Wrote Megatrends a new direction for society monitored 6000 newspapers each month to analyze changes in people s behavior connected with changes in society The ten megatrends over the years have been demonstrated in Internet growth other computer based changes a more flexible approach to career development lifestyle choices Long term general forecasts are never completely accurate Faith Popcorn Cofounder of the marketing consultancy BrainReserve recognized cocooning cocooning connection between people s stressful work lives and hectic social lives their wish for a tranquil haven at home Counter trends flip sides contradictory nature of working with trends Some concepts may click with trends some may not Stan Davis Wrote on changes in society and their impact on business coined the term mass customization Mass customization process of using mass production techniques to create deliver customized goods services Reasons for changes in society Shortening of the product development cycle so that trends can reach stores quicker Connectivity online access eliminate distance as a barrier Chris Anderson Believe new niches will represent the new emerging marketplace of infinite choice for consumers long tail economy Digital world is cheaper than traditional retail stores eBay Consumer s can have the product WHEN they want it Predicts there will be 3 D printers available in homes in the future that will allow for virtual retailed self manufactured products Environmental scanning a method of systematically tracking analyzing trends using media sources Media scan if you see hear or read about something it is a signal of a trend media scanning is done to observe changes in society that will give clues for upcoming trends Interviewing forecaster may conduct interviews to understand the shift in social rules or a change in lifestyle among different cohort groups In depth interviewing contrast to a group interview it is a one on one conversation to gain a deeper understanding of a consumer s relationship to a product or product category Focus group interview talking to people to find signals of trends recognize social changes in conversation with different people Popcorn talking to people in the airport Interviewer uses a predesigned set of questions to guide the discussion Delphi Method The goal is to encourage debate by making the interaction independent of personality Identify the experts introduce an issue for debate obtain initial response from experts summarize the responses and summarize arguments group consensus Scenario writing forecasters look at data identify trends and see how the trends will play out in the future They consider alternative futures scenarios which is most likely to happen to determine long term trends and forecasting This encourages executives to think more creatively about long range planning Framework to evaluate cultural indicators and important research strategies Environmental scanning Interviewing Observation All necessary to make predictions to the textile and apparel industries and to specific target audiences Observation 1980s consumer behavior researchers traveled around to observe the naturalistic settings of people in society They did this to better understand the meaning of everyday happenings and the relationship between people and their possessions A forecaster is constantly aware of the potential for discovery in any and all daily activities They are always observing and exploring new offerings in the marketplace Kim s Model of the Forecasting Process CHAPTER 5 Color forecaster color professionals that analyze factors to propose a direction for colors in the future ROLE OF A FORECASTER Researching fashion developments using environmental scanning Matching newness in fashion to the marketplace to synthesize an actionable Identifying visual and symbolic core concepts forecast for a client Today trend merchandising and color forecasting are an integral part of product development for both hard soft goods The two leading professional color organizations in America Color Association of the U S CAUS Uses textile industry specialists to select fashion shades that could be popular in the future and build volume sales Specialized forecasts include man made fibers men and women s apparel home furnishings interior environmental colors children s clothing and active wear Color Marketing Group CMG provide advanced color information for industries from apparel to automobiles from health care to corporate identity Members from every range of job titles meet a few times a year which results in a panel reaching a determination of the next color palette Take into consideration the lead time required for fiber yarn and fabric producers and apparel manufacturers to produce their products as well as the time required for retailers to order merchandise and have it in their stores at the right time Hue refers to the actual color Intensity refers to the strength or purity of the color saturation Value refers to the lightness or darkness of the color Color specifications used to identify a color in a color system by providing its value and intensity Product developers do color specifications to resolve problems and challenges when determining a color Color systems provides guidelines for harmonious color groupings express the color qualities by using a letter code or a notation using a number Munsell Color System includes a color atlas with about 1600 chips arranged in equal steps of hue value and intensity and a notation for each Pantone Color System includes a color atlas with 1225 colors that are identified by name and color code Offers carefully graded color samples of different hues and variations in their value and intensity The power of color as a marketing tool applies across every product category T shirt pillow lipstick car The attitude towards the chosen colors for a season depends on want the consumer is interested in at that particular point in time Marketing specific colors at the right time is key to meeting customer s wants needs Providing the right colors in marketing techniques will also help in catching the eye of consumer s For example changing the color and the name of a color for a product boosts the marketing appeal and encourages a shopper to refresh his her wardrobe Color preferences The Luscher Color Test links color preference to somebody s