Unformatted text preview:

Review for Exam IICTE 3809 Trend Analysis and Forecasting (Spring 2013)* 20 Multiple Choices (1.5 points x 20 = 30 points) + 10 Short Answer Questions (2 points x 5 = 20 points) = 50 pointsCh 4. Cultural IndicatorsJohn Naisbitt: Megatrends Naisbitt was a futurist and consultant, he published Megatrends in 1982. He coined the term “megatrend” to refer to major shifts in society that have a definite impact on individual lifestyles, and is also considered a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society. His method for research focused on scanning a variety of media sources for both editorial and advertising content to identify patterns, which he would then analyze to determine what those patterns reveal. In his book Megatrends Naisbitt identified 10 megatrends including:o The move toward an information-based economy. o The dual compensations of “high tech” and “high touch” products.o The shift to a global economy.o The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks. o The shift from an either/or to a multiple-option society. Faith Popcorn Cofounded the marketing consultancy firm Brain Reserve in 1974 and is known for her books The Popcorn Report, Clicking, and Evolution.  Her forecasting methodology involves:o Scanning a continuous stream of periodicalso Monitoring pop cultureo Shopping stores across the country and abroado Interviewing consumers about a variety of product categories Argued that trends are predictive because they start small and gradually gather momentum Mentioned that the best way to pick up on early indications of new trends is to understand the evolution of current trendso Trends go through different chartable stages, and by the time a trend phases itself out, it will have gone through many transformations Said that a lifestyle trends take about ten years to work through the culture and reach all market levels. Lifestyle trends reorganize consumer priorities and influence decisions in every aspect of life.Cocooning Term coined by Faith Popcorn Stay-at-home syndrome building in 1981 (cocooning). Popcorn made the connection between people’s stressful work lives and hectic social lives and their wish for a tranquil haven at home. Had repercussions in multiple industries (e.g., home renovation, master bedroom suite, larger baths, casual, comfortable basic fashion, bed linens, housewares, car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic.)  Brain Reserve Methodology 1Counter-trends Another term coined by Faith Popcorn Trends that contrast with another prevailing set of trends, both of which offer opportunities for businesses because of the contradictory aspects of human behavior ( for every trend, there are counter-trends) Some concepts can click with one or more trends and be contradicted by others Example: a person may watch his diet and exercise strenuously, and reward himself with a pint of premium ice creamStan Davis Has a PhD in social sciences and by the early 1980s he had become a futurist writer, speaker, and consultant on changes in society and their impact on business Coined the term “mass customization”  Applied the idea of life cycle to the economy to predict the end of the current information economy Said that increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time. Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier. Tangible attributes less important than intangible values. Mass customization By Stan Davis 1987 The process of delivering a unique, personalized, or customized product using mass-production techniques and at a cost competitive with mass production o Using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services- a process that has been used by apparel manufacturers and retailers since the mid 1990s Chris Anderson Editor-in-chief of Wired Magazine2<<< Method to interpret the signals: Brainstorming and interviewing experts.<<< Range of forecasts:Forces shaping the future The trick to trend-spotting is to ask the right people.” Anderson, using his skills as a journalist: interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern Gave his insight a catchy name—“the long tail” to catch people’s attention (Anderson, 2006)o In the 21st century, hits will still happen but niches represent the new, emerging marketplace—a marketplace of infinite choiceo Sales on Y axis and stocks ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis-showed a demand curveo The curve never reached zero. No matter how large the inventory, everything sold at least some of the time-creating the long tail of the demand curve. This graph encompassed both the commercial (hits) and the noncommercial (non-hits) and consumers from mainstream to niches to a market of one.  Time frame: Decades Techniques for gathering signals :Interviewing Experts  Internet business CEOs Gaining access to proprietary data from high-profile Internet-based companies Methods to interpret the signals: Plotted the data—sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis— and hypothesized about resulting pattern Range of the forecasts : Applies to online marketingEnvironmental scanning A method of systematically tracking and analyzing trends using media sourcesMedia scan Research Strategy 1 of Environmental Scanning Collecting bits and pieces from a broad spectrum of sources, seeing hints and glimpses of possible futures, and hearing about new directions, then linking these signals, shaped into a vision of what the future may be, and logically supported before being dubbed a trend. Interviewing Research Strategy 2 of Environmental Scanning Ask people, ask experts Focus group interview In-depth interviewIn-depth interview A research technique in which a researcher interviews a single consumer at a time in a lengthy dialogue aimed at discovering the meaning products or brands have for that consumerFocus group interview One of the most popular techniques in consumer research Consist of a small number of consumers who are brought together to talk about topics of interest to the researcher in a group interview setting Used to understand both consumer behavior in general and consumer responses to specific products or brands


View Full Document

FSU CTE 3809 - Exam 2

Documents in this Course
Exam 2

Exam 2

12 pages

Exam 2

Exam 2

12 pages

Test 1

Test 1

5 pages

Test 1

Test 1

5 pages

Exam 1

Exam 1

10 pages

Exam 2

Exam 2

13 pages

Load more
Download Exam 2
Our administrator received your request to download this document. We will send you the file to your email shortly.
Loading Unlocking...
Login

Join to view Exam 2 and access 3M+ class-specific study document.

or
We will never post anything without your permission.
Don't have an account?
Sign Up

Join to view Exam 2 2 2 and access 3M+ class-specific study document.

or

By creating an account you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use

Already a member?