CTE3809 Exam 2 Study Guide Chapter Four Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt Megatrends newspapers each month an issue direction for society o Time frame Decades o The technique for gathering signals Content analysis of 6 000 local o The methods to interpret the signals Check the shifting space devoted to o The range of the forecasts A critical restructuring that defines a new o The move toward an information based economy o The dual compensations of high tech and high touch products o The shift to a global economy o The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks o The shift from an either or to a multiple option society Faith Popcorn o Brain Reserve Marketing consultancy in 1974 o The Popcorn Report 1991 o Cocooning Cocooning o A stay at home syndrome building in 1981 had repercussions in multiple industries e g home renovation master bedroom suite larger baths casual comfortable basic fashion bed linens housewares car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic o Safe homelike environment o Fashion Polar fleece Internet catalog fashions Counter trends o Trends that contrast with another prevailing set of trends both of which offer opportunities for businesses because of the contradictory aspects of human behavior Stan Davis o Mass Customization o Coined by Davis in 1987 o The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Mass customization o The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services o A process that has been used by apparel manufacturers and retailers since the mid 1990s to provide consumers with design input and custom fit o Stan Davis Future Perfect Chris Anderson o The Long Tail o Time frame Decades o Techniques for gathering signals companies o Methods to interpret the signals Interviewing Experts Internet business CEOs Gaining access to proprietary data from high profile Internet based Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting pattern o Range of the forecasts Applies to online marketing o The trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people o Anderson using his skills as a journalist Interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern Looked for additional examples Gave his insight a catchy name the long tail to catch people s attention Anderson 2006 o In the 21st century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice o Enables the forecaster to find signals of change and signpoints to the future Environmental scanning in today s media o Research strategy 1 Media scan o Research strategy 2 Interviewing o Research Strategy 3 Observation Media scan o Scanning media for clues to change by paying special attention to the following signals of the future Innovative and novel products New and unusual businesses Unusual travel destinations New rediscovered or redesigned leisure related activities New shopping locations store designs and services for customers Shifts in the workplace and the way people do their jobs Stories about people and their unique adjustments to life s challenges Stories about neighborhoods with an interesting mix of people shopping or ethnic cultures Interviewing o Ask people o Ask experts o Focus group interview o In depth interview o Delphi method anonymous Identify the experts Introduce an issue for debate Round one obtain initial response from experts Summarize the responses Report on round one initiate round two Report on round two initiate round three In depth interview o A research technique in which a researcher interviews a single consumer at a time in a lengthy dialogue aimed at discovering the meaning products or brands have for that consumer Focus group interview interview setting o Take the dynamic of the dinner party conversation into a more formal o Moderator uses a predesigned set of questions to guide the discussion to topics of interest to the research sponsor Delphi method o Identify the experts o Introduce an issue for debate o Round one obtain initial response from experts o Summarize the responses o Report on round one initiate round two o Report on round two initiate round three Scenario writing o A technique used by futurist consisting of a series of stories or summaries that describe the evolution from the present situation to one or more possible futures Identify an issue or decision that will influence future business decisions Identify forces and trends in the environment that influence the issue 1 2 3 Rank these influences in terms of their importance and the degree of uncertainty associated with each 4 Locate any quantitative data that can be used to support scenario writing for example demographic data consumer statistics and economic indicators 5 Decide on some indicators and signposts to watch Surprise Free Scenario Current conditions continue Best Case Scenario An optimistic view Worst Case Scenario A pessimistic view Observation o A group of consumer behavior researchers set out to illustrate the power of observation o Also use photography and interviews Kim s Model of the Forecasting Chapter Five Color Forecasting Color forecaster o Combine knowledge of color theories with understanding of human behavior and acute observational skills o Produce a color forecast 18 to 24 months in advance of the season o Provide input for the designer s decisions Color Association of the United States CAUS o Based in Manhattan a not for profit trade association formed in 1915 to provide color forecasting to members including corporations and designers concerned with apparel interiors and furnishings paint and automobiles o Founded in 1915 The Textile Color Card Association of America o First forecasted women s wear in 1917 men s wear in the 1960s home furnishing in the 1970s children s wear and active wear in the 1980s o The women s committee meets 2 times each year and select 25 42 colors bring color boards for a specific market o Members receive The forecast for one product category each season as a deck of silk screened color cards a monthly newsletter invitation to seminars consultation access to research materials Color Marketing Group CMG o International nonprofit association based in Washington D C o Formed in 1962 o Provides advanced color information for industries