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Study Guide for Exam 130 questions, 20 multiple choice – each worth 1 point, 10 short answer questions – each 2 pointsDefinitions are not the only thing that is important. She wants us to know descriptions of the theories she put on the study guide. Chapter 1 – The Fashion Forecasting ProcessInformation is a business asset that can be managed like any other. In order to be competitive, information is important, which is why it is considered an asset. There is a lot of information out there. It is raw data. So, it should be processed to add meaning to it. The most valuable currencies in today’s competitive climate are information and learning. Forecasting is the process that translates information into a form that allows learning to take place.Forecasting DefinedForecasters• Look for the new, the fresh, the innovative• Interpret signals using judgment and creativity• Analyze the whys behind emerging trends• Predict trend movementMany people are involved in forecasting: marketers, buyers, product developers, etc.Developing a Forecast Look to the past  Look to the future  Develop the forecast  Evaluate the forecastKnow these more detailed steps in developing a forecast:1. Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts2. Determine the causes of change in the past3. Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior4. Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future analysis5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques6. Determine reasons for significant deviations from expectations7. Revise the forecast when necessaryA Model of the Forecasting Process – know thisUsually start from Environment scanning (research current and long-term trends and then analyze the changes in economics, demographics, politics, culture, and technology). Next is Market (research consumer behaviors and wants, be aware of the competition, and analyze sales records to help predict future trends). Next is Product (come up with the actual product and future products (innovation, remodels, etc.)). Next is Research Steps (be aware and consciously observe what is happening around you (including changes), gather and analyze data, interpret meaning, and synthesize (gather everything and come up with the product). Forecasting should not be too broad; it should be for your own target market. So, your forecast should be as specific as possible. Forecasting and the Bottom LineForecasting creates competitive advantage by: • Anticipating trends• Aligning product with consumer preferences• Facilitating the timely arrival of products in the market• (Re)Positioning products• Fine-tuning marketing• Taking advantage of new opportunitiesWhy forecast? Timeliness is very important. Making sure that the product comes out at the right place at the right time is key for success. Developing a ForecastForecasts should identify:• The source of inspiration or information• The pattern of change• Direction of change• Tempo of changeVisualization and ForecastingVisualization helps forecasters understand and communicate the movement of fashion and project future directions. Visualize your ideas to make them clear to yourself and to make them easier to communicate to other people. Three of the most familiar patterns are fashion curves, the pendulum swing, and the fashion cycle. Fashion Curves: Fashion trends are usually classified by duration and penetration, visualized as curves with time on the bottom axis and consumer adoption rates on the vertical axis. In this way it is easy to show the difference between the shortest trends, fads, and the longest trends, classics. Another way of visualizing is through a Diffusion Curve:Pendulum Swing: periodic movement of fashion between extremes. For example, fluctuations between long and short hemlines, fitted and oversized silhouettes, and dressed up and casual looks. These swings may take decades or occur in just one fashion season. Fashion cycles: fashion ideas that return periodically to popularity - have a fixed, regular periodicity. Recurring patterns are called long-wave phenomenon. Bell-shaped curve: Introduction  growth  maturity  decline • Introductory: new style is introduced and begins to gain acceptance; supply of the new style is limited • Growth: competition begins to increase as the style is exposed to more and more consumers and gains popularity• Maturity: longest period in a fashion life cycle; competition becomes more intense so prices begin to drop to appeal to mass market• Decline: styles are going out of fashion and losing their popularity Long-term and Short-term Forecasting – know difference Long-term Forecasting (five years or more): a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization’s direction and development.Short-term Forecasting (about one year ahead): involves periodic monitoring of the long-term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the market place.Forecasting: Textiles and ApparelIt all starts with the fiber companies, then the yarn producers (who forecast structures and textures of fabrics – short-term forecasting), then weavers and knitters (who forecast patterns and prints of fabrics – short-term forecasting), then apparel designers and manufacturers (who forecast the design concept, as in the silhouette and details – short-term forecasting), and lastly the retailers (who test styles and forecast sales – short-term forecasting). Long-term forecasting deals more with economic cycles, lifestyle trends, social trends, consumer preferences, and trends in the arts.Typically, forecasting begins 2 years ahead. Color forecasting is typically done 20-24 months ahead of the target-selling season. Textile development is typically done 12-24 months prior to the target-selling season. International fabric fairs show new trends in fabrics one year ahead of the target-selling season. Side note: every industry needs a color forecaster, not just apparel. Trend, Style, and Design – know difference between these:A trend is a general direction or movement of fashion; a transitory increase or decrease over time. A style is the characteristic or distinctive appearance of a garment – the combination of features that makes it different from other garments.A design is a particular or individual interpretation, version, or treatment of a style; a unique combination of silhouette,


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FSU CTE 3809 - Study Guide for Exam 1

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