CTE3809 Exam 2 Study Guide 10 12 2014 Chapter 4 Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt megatrends o Time frame decades o The technique for gathering signals content analysis of 6 000 local newspapers each month o The methods to interpret the signals check the shifting space devoted to an issue o The range of the forecasts a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society Faith Popcorn o Brain Reserve Marketing consultancy in 1974 o The Popcorn Report 1991 o Cocooning a stay at home syndrome building in 1981 had repercussions in multiple industries e g home renovation master bedroom suite larger baths casual comfortable basic fashion bed linens housewares car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic o Clicking brailing of the culture The clear connection between a trend and a business concept concept Time frame decades The clear connection between a trend and a business The technique for gathering signals Scans 350 magazines trade journals newspapers and newsletters Monitors top television shows first run movies Broadway plays best selling books and hit music Shops stores in America and abroad for new products Interviews 4 000 consumers each year about 20 different product categories The methods to interpret the signals Brainstorming interviewing experts The range of the forecasts The forces shaping the future 17 trends Cocooning fleece internet catalog fashions safe homelike environment polar Clanning hanging out with people that share values and beliefs or interest school uniforms university related apparel 99 lives Cashing Out Fantasy Adventure Being Alive Pleasure Revenge Down Ageing Small Indulgences Village Consumer Anchoring Icon Toppling Ergonomics Save Our Society Female Think Counter trends Fitness Premium Ice Cream Cocooning Adventure Travel Stan Davis o Understanding a Blurred World Increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance Tangible attributes less important than intangible as a barrier values Long term forecasting Time frame decades Dominance is shifting the information economy to biotechnology The techniques for gathering signals reading discussion ideas that are powerful and playful o Mass Customization Coined by Davis in 1987 The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Chris Anderson o The Long Tail of the Demand Curve Time frame Decades Techniques for gathering signals Interviewing Experts Internet business CEOs Gaining access to proprietary data from high profile Internet based companies Methods to interpret the signals Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting pattern Range of the forecasts Applies to online marketing The trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people Environmental Scanning o Research Strategy 1 Media Scan o Research Strategy 2 Interviewing ask people experts Focus group interview Delphi method In depth interview anonymous Identify the experts Introduce an issue for debate Round one obtain initial response from experts Summarize the responses Report on round one initiate round two Report on round two initiate round three o Research Strategy 3 Observation Scenario Writing o Nystrom s Framework Spirit of the Times Dominating events Dominating ideals Dominating social groups Dominating attitude Dominating technology o Cohorts Consumers who share preferences and demographic characteristics o Identify an issue or decision that will influence future business decisions the issue o Identify forces and trends in the environment that influence o Rank these influences in terms of their importance and the degree of uncertainty associated with each o Locate any quantitative data that can be used to support scenario writing for example demographic data consumer statistics and economic indicators o Decide on some indicators and signposts to watch o Surprise Free Scenario Current conditions continue o Best Case Scenario an optimistic view o Worst Case Scenario a pessimistic view Kim s Model of the Forecasting Process Chapter 5 Color Forecasting Color Forecasters o Combine knowledge of color theories with understanding of human behavior and acute observational skills o Produce a color forecast 18 to 24 months in advance of the season o Provide input for the designer s decisions o Immerse in color every day and all year o Track color evolution o Sense spirit of the times o Help manufacturers and retailers keep product lines fresh while not getting so fashion forward that consumers reject the products Color Association of the United States CAUS o Founded in 1915 The Textile Color Card Association of America o First forecasted women s wear in 1917 men s wear in the 1960s home furnishing in the 1970s children s wear and active wear in the 1980s o The women s committee meets 2 times each year and select 25 42 colors bring color boards for a specific market o Members receive the forecast for one product category each season as a deck of silk screened color cards a monthly newsletter invitation to seminars consultation access to research materials Color Marketing Group CMG o International nonprofit association based in Washington D C o Formed in 1962 o The panel meets in the winter and summer to develop apparel palettes Eight weeks prior to the workshops members mail in color samples and individual color direction forecast o Members participate in expert panels and workshops receive four color palettes a year a monthly news letters access to the color library Color In Marketing o the most important aesthetic criterion for preference of many aesthetic forms including apparel Eckman Damhorst Kadolph 1990 o an element of design used in building and maintaining brand identity o identify target markets The Popularity of a Color Depends on o Color preference Universal view Cultural ethnic influence Individual differences o Color symbolism Cultural differences o Color cycles Long wave cycles Pendulum swings Evolution of a color family Two types Periodic shifts in color preferences Patterns of repetition in popular colors Both depend on the mechanism of boredom people get tired of what they have and seek something new o Environment Politics Economics Culture Technology o Consumer segmentation Evolution of a Color Family o Yellow Green Avocado and olive late 1960s 1970s Defined as bad taste by the 1980s Reemerged as kiwi and