Review for Exam II CTE 3809 Chapter 4 Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt Published the book Megatrends in 1982 The book identified 10 megatrends that include The move toward an information based economy The dual compensation of high tech and high touch products high touch products have soft contours and cozy handmade or artsy attributes The shift to a global economy The shift away from a hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks The shift from an either or to a multiple option society Time Frame Decades The technique for gathering signals Data were gathered by continually monitoring 6 000 local newspapers each month to pinpoint trace and evaluate the important issues and trends the idea was that trends and ideas began in cities and local communities rather than urban centers The methods to interpret the signals Check the shifting space devoted to an issue The range of the forecasts A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society awareness Faith Popcorn Cofounder of the marketing consultancy BrainReserve and credited as the trendspotter who recognized the trend for cocooning The popcorn Report 1991 is her first book Her cultural trends arise from three sources 1 High Culture fine and performance arts 2 Low Culture activities pursued locally by special interest groups outside mainstream 3 Pop Culture movies television music and celebrity Cocooning A stay at home syndrome Safe homelike environment The fashion trend was polar fleece from internet and catalog fashions It had repercussions in multiple industries home renovations master bedroom suites larger baths casual comfortable basic fashion bed linens housewares car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic Her book clicking in 1997 17 trends on the clear connection between a trend and a business concept Time frame Decades The techniques for gathering signals Scans 350 magazines trade journals newspapers and newsletters Monitors top television shows first run movies Broadway plays best selling books and hit music Shops stores in America and abroad for new products Interviews 4 000 consumers each year about 20 different product categories The methods to interpret the signals Brainstorming interviewing experts The range of the forecasts The forces shaping the future Trends Cocooning Clanning Fantasy Adventure Pleasure Revenge Small Indulgences Anchoring Ergonomic 99 Lives Cashing Out Being Alive Down Ageing Village Consumer Icon Toppling Save Our Society Clanning The tendency for people to group together around a shared common interest Hanging out with people that share values and beliefs or interest Fashion was school uniforms and university related apparel Counter Trends flip sides The contradictory aspect or working with trends mirrors the sometimes contradictory aspects of human behavior Fitness Premium Ice Cream watching your diet and then rewarding with premium ice cream Cocooning Adventure Travel Stan Davis Understanding a Blurred world Considering the fundamental of the universe time speed and mass in relationship to the economy and business Increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier Tangible attributes less important than intangible values Time Frame Decades Dominance is shifting from the information economy to biotechnology The techniques for gathering signals Reading Discussion Ideas that are powerful and playful Mass Customization Coined by David in 1987 The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Chris Anderson Time frame Decades Techniques for gathering signals Interviewing experts Internet business CEOs Gaining access to proprietary data from high profile Internet based companies Methods to interpret the signals Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting patter Range of the forecasts Applies to online marketing The Long Trail The trick trend spotting is to ask the right people As a journalist he used his skill to Interview both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern Looked for additional examples Gave his insight a catchy name The Long Trail to catch people s attention In the 21st Century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice Media Scan Observation of friends family and media habits magazines movies music books television Environmental Scanning Research Strategy 1 Media Scan Research Strategy 2 Interviewing ask people experts Research Strategy 3 Observation Interviewing Focus group interview In depth interview Delphi method anonymous Identify the experts Introduce an issue for debate Round one obtain initial response from experts Report on round one initiate round two Report on round two initiate round three Summarize the responses In depth Interview Is conducted one on one in an attempt to gain a deep understanding of a consumer s relationship to a product or product category Focus Group Interview One of the most popular techniques in consumer research Consist of a small number of consumers who are brought together to talk about topics of interest to the researcher in a group interview setting Used to understand both consumer behavior in general and consumer responses to specific product or brands Forecasters may use focus group interviews to explore consumers exercise behavior to develop a new product The moderator plays a key role because they need to make the participants feel free to discuss their feelings opinions and experiences Delphi Method A method of polling used to elicit expert input using a process that combines brainstorming and debate to generate ideas clarify complex issues and reach consensus Scenario Writing Nystrom Framework 1928 spirit of the times Dominating Events Dominating Ideals Dominating Social Groups Dominating Attitude Dominating Technology Cohorts Consumers who share preferences and demographic characteristics Identify an issue or decision that will influence future business decisions Identify forces and trends in the environment that influence the issue 1 2 3 Rank these influences in terms of their importance and the degree of uncertainty associated with each 4 Locate any quantitative data that can be used to support scenario writing Ex demographic data consumer