Review for Exam I CTE 3809 Trend Analysis and Forecasting Ch 1 The Fashion Forecasting Process Forecasting The process of anticipating future developments by watching for signals of change in current situations and events and applying the forecasting frameworks to predict possible outcomes Translates information into a form that allows learning to take Should identify the source of information pattern of change direction of change and Developing a forecast tempo of change 1 Look to the past 2 Look to the Future 3 Develop the forecast 4 Evaluate the forecast Classic Fad Fashion Classic A style widely accepted and stays in fashion for an extended period of time an item or style that is introduced gains visibility generates multiple purchases or replacement purchases and reaches a plateau level of widespread acceptance that persists over a long time period an item or style that delivers at least the core attributes desirable to the consumer while avoiding extremes in styling Fad short lived style that affects a limited part of the population a trend of short duration that is introduced gains rapid visibility and acceptance among a relatively small contingent of consumers and fades quickly because it is not supported by corresponding lifestyle changes Fashion accepted and diffused among people at a moderate rate it is slowly accepted in the beginning rapidly rises reaches its peak and gradually declines Kim s model of the forecasting process 2011 Trend Identifiable similarities across information sources related to styles details or other aspects of appearance characterized by a building awareness of this new look and an accelerating demand among consumers Diffusion curve A visualization of diffusion of innovation as a bell curve showing the progressive participation of consumers beginning with innovators and early adopters proceeding to majority adoption and concluding with laggards NUMBER OF ADOPTERS FAD FASHION CLASSIC TIME DIFFUSION CURVE Pendulum swing Refers to the periodic movement of fashion between extremes Long term forecasting 5 years or more A forecasting timeline sufficient for decisions related to repositioning or extending product lines igniting new businesses riving brand images or planning new retail concepts A way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization s direction and development Short term forecasting About one year ahead The process that allows the segment of the textile apparel pipeline to coordinate seasonal goods around looks that can be communicated to the customer through the press and stores Involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the market place The phase in forecasting when a trend or phenomenon is dissected to achieve a more complete understanding of its components A group of consumers who share preferences and demographic characteristics the basic unit of consumer research Generational cohorts share the same age location in history and a collective mindset A trend so fundamental that it indicates a critical recruiting of culture The characteristic or distinctive appearance of a garment the combination of features that makes it different from other garments A particular or individual interpretation version or treatment of a style Trend analysis Cohorts Megatrends Style Design Engine of fashion Goals satisfied by fashion Imitation Fitting in Differentiation standing out IMITATION DIFFERENTIATION ENGINE OF FASHION Target market An approach that focuses on attracting a specific potential purchaser one who s lifestyle preferences and aspirations predispose her to see a match with the offer Zeitgeist Generally translated as the spirit of the times Fashion is a re election of the times in which they are created and worn Nystrom s framework In 1928 Nystrom attempted to list factors that guide and influence the character and direction of fashion the list provides a framework for observing the formation of the Zeitgeist Dominating events ideals social groups attitude and technology Ch 2 Introducing Innovation Diffusion of innovation consumers participating in each stage adoption The process in which innovations spread within a social system including the kind of Innovation is something new submitted to the public s attention for approval and Rogers consumer adoption process model 1962 1983 Number of Adopters 13 5 2 5 EARLY ADOPTER Or MAJORITY INNOVATOR Time OPINION LEADER Fashion Leaders LATE ADOPTER LAGGARD Fashion Followers Innovator Opinion leader Late adopter Laggard Innovator people who adopt new product innovations relatively earlier than others in their social group young educated affluent consumer less price sensitive interested in particular product category Opinion leader Individuals who are influential on the attitudes and decision making of people in their social circle Late adopter People who adopt the ideas after the majority has Laggard the last people to adopt an idea Fashion leader Fashion follower products also known as opinion leaders Fashion leader people whom others look for advice about clothes or other aesthetic Fashion follower people considered a part of the majority late adopters and laggards The perception that an innovation is more satisfactory than items that already exist in the Relative advantage same class of products Characteristic of an innovator An estimate of harmony between the innovation and the values and norms of potential Characteristic of an innovator A gauge of the difficulty faced by a consumer in understanding and using the innovation Characteristic of an innovator The imagined potential consequences of purchasing something new and novel Characteristic of an innovator In the consumer adoption process the degree of visibility afforded an innovation Characteristic of an innovator Compatibility adopters Complexity Perceived risk Observability Trialability In the consumer adoption process an evaluation of the ease of testing out the innovation before making a decision Characteristic of an innovator Robertson s consumer adoption process model 1971 Rogers 1962 Awareness Interest Evaluation Trial Adoption Rogers 1983 Knowledge Persuasion Decision Implementation Confirmation Robertson 1971 Problem Perception Awareness Comprehension Attitude Legitimation Trial Adoption Dissonance Word of mouth The way trends spread among personal networks when one person visually or verbally recommends a