Chapter 4 Cultural Indicators Study Guide Exam 2 Kim s Model of the Forecasting Process Forecasting o Long term Forecasting five years or more a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization s direction and development Anticipates the future by linking Breakthroughs in science technology and medicine Demographic trends Examines the likely result on the economy political system and environment o Short term Forecasting about one year ahead involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the marketplace John Naisbitt 1982 Megatrends o John Naisbitt coined the term megatrend to refer to major shifts in society that have a definite impact on individual lifestyles o He identified ten megatrends o Time Frame Decades long term forecasting o The techniques for gathering signals Content analysis of 6 000 local newspapers each month o The methods to interpret the signals Check the shifting space devoted to an issue o The range of the forecasts A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society o Saw a move toward and information based economy dual compensations of high tech and high touch products a shift to a global economy a shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks and a shift from an either or to a multiple option society Faith Popcorn Faith is known for her book Clicking 1997 and The Popcorn Report 1991 o She cofounded the company Brain Reserve Marketing consultancy in 1974 o Her forecasting methodology involves scanning a continuous stream of periodicals monitoring pop culture shopping stores across the country and abroad and interviewing consumers about a variety of product categories o She argued that trends are predictive because they start small and gradually gather momentum o Said cultural trends arise from three sources high culture fine and performance arts low culture activities pursued locally by special interest groups outside mainstream awareness and pop culture o Popcorn says that trends go through different chartable stages o Credited as recognizing the trend for cocooning Cocooning a stay at home syndrome she saw building in 1981 had repercussions in multiple industries e g home renovation larger baths home gyms man rooms and kitchens for home entertaining she made the connection between people s stressful work lives and their wish for a tranquil heaven at home for fashion this meant that consumers were staying home and demanding casual no frills basic fashion Time Frame o Decades The techniques for gathering signals o Scanning 350 magazines trade journals newspapers and newsletters o Monitors top television shows first run movies Broadway plays best selling books and hit music o Shops stores in America and abroad for new products o Interviews 4 000 consumers each year about 20 different product categories The methodology results in what Popcorn calls a brailing of the culture and that leads to the identification of trends the forces shaping the future o 17 Trends identified in her book Clicking Cocooning Safe homelike environment Fashion o Polar fleece o Internet and catalog fashions Clanning The tendency for people to group together around a shared common interest Hanging out with people that share values and beliefs or interest Fashion o School uniforms o University related apparel Fantasy Adventure Pleasure Revenge Small Indulgences Anchoring Ergonomics Female Think 99 Lives Cashing Out Being Alive Down Ageing Village Consumer Icon Toppling Save Our Society o Counter Trends trends that contrast with another prevailing set of trends both of which offer opportunities for businesses because of the contradictory aspects of human behavior For every trend there are counter trends or flip sides Examples Fitness premium ice cream Cocooning Adventure Travel Stan Davis Understanding a Blurred World o Increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time o Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier o Tangible attributes less important than intangible values o Constant acceleration leads to a blur o Stan Davis says that in this new environment executives may feel they re losing their balance but they re experiencing the blur To see clearly executives will need to adjust to constant acceleration o Time Frame Decades Dominance is shifting from the information economy to biotechnology o The techniques for gathering signals Reading Discussion Thinking up ideas that are powerful and playful o Mass Customization Term coined by Davis in 1987 The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Mass customization is a hybrid of mass production and customization and is defined as the mass production of individually customized goods and services Permits customer involvement in both the design process and the manufacturing Example Converse or Nike allowing you to customize your own shoe online processes Chris Anderson The Long Tail o The history of culture can be written in hits award winning movies music stars A list celebrities music stars but Anderson says this has changed he believes there will still be hits but that niches will represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice o Time frame Decades o Techniques for gathering signals Interviewing Experts such as Internet business CEOs Gaining access to proprietary data from high profile Internet based companies o Methods to interpret the signals Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting pattern o Range of the forecasts Applies to online marketing o The trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people o Anderson using his skills as a journalist Interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern Looked for additional examples Gave his insight a catchy name the long tail to catch people s attention o In the 21st century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace of infinite choice o How do these ideas about the economy of the 21st century apply to fashion Handmade vintage or limited production fashion items such as customized T shirts jewelry and other personalized products fit nicely into the long tail of demand not right for the mainstream but wit a strong