Notes for Exam 1 Chapter 1 The Fashion Forecasting Process Information is a business asset that can be managed like any other The most valuable currencies in today s competitive climate are information and Forecasting is the process that translates information into a form that allows learning to learning take place Forecasters o Look for the new the fresh the innovative o Interpret signals using judgment and creativity o Analyze the whys behind emerging trends o Predict trend movement Forecasting is both a science and an art Developing a forecast LOOK TO THE PAST LOOK TO THE FUTUR E DEVELOP THE FORECAS T EVALUAT E THE FORECAS T Developing a forecast 1 Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts 2 Determine the causes of change in the past 3 Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior 4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future analysis 5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques 6 Determine reasons for significant deviations from expectations 7 Revise the forecast when necessary Fashion forecasting begins about 18 months prior to a retailing season First stage in forecasting is color forecasting A Model of the Forecasting Process Forecasting and the Bottom Line o Forecasting creates competitive advantage by Anticipating trends Aligning product with consumer preferences Facilitating the timely arrival of products in the market Fine tuning marketing Taking advantage of new opportunities Re Positioning products Developing a Forecast o Forecasts should identify The source of inspiration or information The pattern of change Direction of change Tempo of change Visualization Forecasting Long Term Short Term Forecasting o Long Term Forecasting five years or more a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization s direction and development Economic cycles Lifestyle trends Social trends Consumer preferences Trends in the arts o Short Term Forecasting about one year ahead involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the market place Color trends Structures and textures of fabric Patterns and prints Silhouette and details Forecasting Textiles Apparel Trend Style Design o A trend is a general direction or movement of fashion o A style is the characteristic or distinctive appearance of a garment the combination of features that makes it different from other garments o A design is a particular or individual interpretation version or treatment of a style Fashion Fad Classic o A fashion style is accepted and diffused among people at a moderate rate it is slowly accepted in the beginning rapidly rises reaches its peak and gradually declines o A fad is a short lived style that affects a limited part of the population o A classic is a style widely accepted and stays in fashion for an extended period of time Defining Fashion o As an object the specific products that change over time because of individual s collective of preferences o As a process of change the stages that an object goes through as it is introduced and collectively accepted adopted by individuals o Forecasts should identify A style that is popular in the present A set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience o Social and Psychological Response Through a process of negotiation between elements of the fashion industry and between the fashion industry and the consumer ambiguous styles become accepted as fashion Fashion is product and behavior Goals satisfied by fashion Imitation fitting in Differentiation standing out o Popular Culture Trivial Transient Extreme Frivolous o Factors that Change Fashion Charm of novelty Pull of historic continuity Responsiveness to the spirit of the times o Transfer of Meaning Designers marketers and the press transfer meaning to a consumer good and increase its visibility The consumer fetches the meaning out of the marketplace in the form of goods and constructs his or her own personal world Fashion is a reflection of the times in which they are created and worn o Gender Differences Occupational Clothing Men Uniformity in design Lack of decorative elements Lack of the social distinctiveness Women Personal Conspicuousness A relatively weaker social position Use fashion to vent need for individual prominence Discovering the Zeitgeist Spirit of the Times o Fashion is a reflection of the times in which they are created and worn o Style interpretations Apparel Cuisine Sports Architecture Automobiles Toys Avocations Pastimes Interiors o Nystrom s Framework 1928 Dominating Events Dominating Ideals Dominating Social Groups Dominating Attitude Dominating Technology Nystrom is a famous social psychologist who proposed this theory in 1928 People used to say fashion was influenced by fine art or other elements of culture but now fashion is much more important than before Fashion can now influence fine art so it s not just one direction anymore o Naisbitt 1982 Megatrends Time Frame Decades The techniques for gathering signals content analysis of 6 000 local The methods to interpret the signals check the shifting space devoted to newspapers each month an issue The range of the forecasts a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society Forecasting as a Career o Environmental Scanning for Collaborative Forecasting The Wall Street Journal The New York Times Advertising Age WWD for women s wear or DNR for men s wear Fashion and lifestyle magazines for coverage of popular culture fashion leaders and trends Any profession requires using the right side of thinking as shown below Chapter 2 Introducing Innovation Doneger Group o Doneger Creative Services David Wolfe Creative Director o Old is Better We are living in a postmodern era gender boundaries are blurred ethnicity is accepted not much class distinction o Traditional fashion models were white tall and thin Diffusion of Innovation o What is innovation A new color or color range A new fiber fabric or fabric property The modification of a silhouette or detail A new way to wear an accessory A new mood expressed in a distinctive style A new definition of appropriateness Diffusion of Innovation Rogers 1962 Consumer Adoption Process Rogers 1983 Consumer Adoption Process Influence Two Step Flow Influence Two Step Flow o Fashion leaders are very important for fashion forecasters o So people were divided into two groups fashion leaders and fashion followers The sources of