John Naisbit Mega Trends The move toward an information based economy The dual compensations of high tech and high touch products The shift to a global economy The shift away from hierarchal structures in favor of informal networks The shift from an either or to a multiple option society Time frame Decades The techniques for gathering signals Content analysis of 6 000 local The methods to interpret the signals Check the shifting space devoted to The range of the forecasts A critical restructuring that defines a new newspapers each months an issue direction for society Faith Popcorn Co founder of the Brain Reserve Author of The Popcorn Report Clicking and Evolution Forecast methodology involves scanning a continuous stream of periodicals monitoring pop culture shopping stores across the country and abroad Argued that trends are predictive because they start small and gradually gather momentum Cocooning Name given to the trend that sees individuals socializing less and retreating into their home more Fashions polar fleece internet catalog fashions Commercially significant trend that would lead to among other things stay at home electronic shopping The creation of the internet home entertainment technology advances in communication technology which allow work at home options Counter trends For every trend there is a counter trend Fitness Junk Food Cocooning Adventure traveling Stan Davis Increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier Tangible attributes less important than intangible values Mass customization The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Chris Anderson The Long Tail Believed that consumers exhibit variety seeking behaviors and explore new and novel in genre sometimes expanding their range of interest when ranges overlap Meaning everything gets sampled The curve never reaches zero no matter how large the inventory Interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research Looked for additional examples Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern Gave his insight a catchy name the long tail In the 21st century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice Long Term Forecaster s Kit Looks for cultural drift directional pointers for the way society is moving Continuation of the drift at the same rate Acceleration of the drift Tapering off of the drift A forecaster looks for Differences in consumer interests values and motivation Breakthroughs in technology and science Alteration in political cultural economic alliances between countries Shifts in demographics that can restructure society Changes in industry and market structure Changes in the economic picture Environmental Scanning Opens that window to the future This enables the forecaster to find signals of change and signposts to the future in today s media 1 Media Scanning Collecting bits and pieces from a broad spectrum seeing hints and glimpses of possible futures and hearing about new directions is only a first strep Interviewing When trying to understand a shift in social rules or a change in lifestyle among a cohort group a forecaster may decide to conduct a number of interviews ask experts 2 a Focus group interview a qualities method of research based on informal uncensored talk about products in a group interview setting In depth interview is conducted one on one in an attempt to gain a deep understanding of a consumer s relationships to a product or category b c Delphi method anonymous d e f g h i Identify the experts Introduce an issue for debate Round one obtain initial response from experts Summarize the responses Report on round one initiate round two Report on round two initiate round three 3 Observation a Access to the insider s viewpoints Being an insider provides the opportunity to understand the meaning of everyday happening and the reality of situations as defined by participants Add from the top Scenario writing the evolution from the present situation to one or more possible futures Various methods to writing a scenario One is to start with the vision of the future and work backward to discover the path to that future Another is to project present forces into the future plotting their likely evolution o Futurist recommends a minimum of three scenarios in order to o The surprise free scenario A scenario projecting the continuation consider alternative futures of current conditions o The best case scenario takes an optimistic view toward technological breakthrough and economic conditions o The worst case scenario built using more negative possibilities and a pessimistic view Ch 5 Color forecaster Color forecasters Immerse in color every day and all year Track color evolution Sense spirit of the times Help manufacturers and retailers keep product lines fresh while not getting so fashion forward that consumers reject the products Combine knowledge of color theories with understanding of human behavior and acute observational skills Produce a color forecast 18 to 24 months in advance of the season Provide input for the designer s decisions Color Association of the United States CAUS Based in Manhattan a not for profit trade association formed in 1915 to provide color forecasting to members including corporations and designers concerned with apparel interiors and furnishing paint and automobiles Color Marketing Group GMC An international nonprofit association formed in 1962 to provide advanced color information for industries from apparel to automobiles from health care to corporate identity and based in Washington D C area Cotton Inc Color in marketing Trade organization that also does color forecasting The most important aesthetic criterion for preference of many aesthetic forms including apparel Eckman Damhorst Kadolph 1990 An element of design used in building and maintaining brand identity Identify target markets Color preferences Universal view Cultural ethnic influence o o o Individual differences Color symbolism Associated meanings with nature Cultural Differences Seemingly arbitrary social convention Gender identity o Mourning US Black India White Turkey Violet Ethiopia Brown Brides US Whites Hindu India Yellow China Red Color cycles Two types Periodic shifts in color preferences Patterns of repetition in popular colors Both depend on the mechanism of boredom