Review for Exam II CTE 3809 Trend Analysis and Forecasting Spring 2014 20 Multiple Choices 1 point x 20 20 points 10 Short Answer Questions 2 points x 10 20 points 40 points Ch 4 Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt Megatrends Time frame decades Techniques content analysis of 6000 newspapers each month Interpret signals check shifting space devoted to an issue The move towards an info based economy Faith Popcorn Brain Reserve 1974 The Popcorn Report 1991 Clicking o The clear connection between trend and business concept o Time frame decades o Techniques scans 320 mags journals newspapers monitors top TV shows movies shops and interviews o Brailing of the culture Cocooning o Stay at home syndrome building 1981 had repercussions in multiple industries home renovation master bed suite housewares etc o Safe homelike environment o Fashion polar fleece internet and catalog fashions Clanning o Hanging out with people that share values and beliefs or interest o Fashion school uniforms University related apparel Counter trends Fitness premium ice cream Cocooning adventure travel Stan Davis Understanding a Blurred World Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier Tangible attributes are less important than intangible Dominance is shifting from info economy to biotechnology Mass customization o Coined by Davis 1987 o Process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services 1 Chris Anderson The Long Tail of the Demand Curve Trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people Interviewed CEO s examined data and discovered pattern Toolkit 3 scenarios of alternative futures Continuation of the drift at the same rate Acceleration of the drift Tapering off of the drift Environmental scanning Strategy 1 Media Scan Strategy 2 Interviewing Strategy 3 Observation Interviewing Ask people Ask experts Focus group In depth Delphi method o Identify experts o Introduce an issue o Summarize responses in debate Scenario writing Identify an issue that will influence future decisions Identify forces and trends in the environment that influence the issue Rank influences in terms of importance degree of uncertainty Locate data that can be used to support writing Decide on indicators and signposts to watch Surprise free scenario o Current conditions continue Best case scenario o An optimistic view Worst case scenario o A pessimistic view Kim s model of the forecasting process 2011 2 Ch 5 Color Forecasting Color forecaster Combine knowledge of color theories with understanding of human behavior and acute observational skills Produce a color forecast 18 24 months in advance of season Provide input for the designers decisions Color Association of the United States CAUS Founded in 1915 First forecasted women s wear 1917 men s wear 1960s home 1970s children s active wear 1980s Meet 2x a year select 25 42 colors Color Marketing Group CMG Formed in 1962 Panel meets in winter summer to develop apparel palettes Cotton Inc Color in marketing The most important aesthetic criterion for preference of many aesthetic forms including apparel An element of design used in building and maintaining brand identity Identify target markets Color preferences Universal view Cultural ethnic influence o African America strong saturated colors o Hispanic warm bright colors o Cubans pastel o Puerto Ricans livelier colors o Cultural differences Mourning Brides Individual differences Color cycles Two types both depend on the mechanism of boredom o Periodic shifts in color preferences o Patterns of repetition in popular colors Long wave cycles 3 Pendulum swings 7 year cycle o Warm vs cool Evolution of a color family o Avocado olive 1960s 1970s o Defined as bad taste by 1980s o Reemerged as kiwi lime 1995 o Wasabi 2000 Color research Look for new and fresh in social cultural economic and political issues Key calendar dates seasonal runway shows textile trade shows Premiere Vision Color relationships across product categories Color direction inclination or tendency toward change in o Color temp warmer cooler o Value lighter darker o Intensity clearer grayer o Importance of hue in out New color is directional when it is trend setting or trend defining International textile industry fair held twice a year in Paris Delivered with a set of color cards fabric swatches and yarn samples Premiere Vision Color specifications Munsell color system Pantone color system 1600 colors by hue value and Chroma intensity 1225 colors by name and color code Ch 6 Textile Development Innovation in textile development Technical or performance fabrics o High tech fabrics with novel properties Licra spandex yarn with vitamin c Developmental fabrics o New fabrics proposed by firms and trade organizations that have special fabrics that change performance characteristics in response Wired garments clothing that incorporates electronic technologies garment characteristics appearance or properties Intelligent textiles to the environment protect the wearer from heat or cold with a cell phone or CD player Electrotextiles signals wired garments where every thread can transmit electrical 4 Print design prepared on the computer and printed using inkjet technology Used to create accessories short yardages for design approval and customized Digital textile printing products Fabric fairs trade shows Apparel manufacturers looking for new sources of innovative fabrics Designers looking for inspiration for their next collection Fabric fairs in Italy Textile shows in U S Premiere Vision Paris first look Expofil o Most influential show o February and September o 18 months ahead of the selling season o European yarn fair held in Paris o Earliest view 15 months ahead o Linked with Premiere Vision o Publishes color range and trend book Pitti Filati o Showcase for Italian spinners natural and synthetic yarns and blends o Held in July and January o Focuses on high end yarns merino wool cashmere etc TexWorld o Run concurrently with Premiere Vision o Feature less expensive textiles Interstoff Asia Essential o Held twice yearly in Hong Kong o Focuses on innovative fabrics particularly functional fabrics eco textiles etc Material World MAGIC Fabric libraries Cottonworks o Held in Miami o Showcases yarn fabric trim and info technology o Helps with sourcing and production o Sourcing for fabric and print source o Held in Las Vegas o For original graphics and prints Season s fabrics by styling end use fiber content color range manufacturer