3809 Study Guide Chapter 1 Forecasting process that translates information into a form that allows learning to take place Look for the new the fresh and the innovative Interpret signals using judgment and creativity Analyze the whys behind emerging trends Predict trend movement Developing a Forecast Look at the past Look at the future Develop the forecast Evaluate the forecast Developing A Forecast Identify the basic facts about past trends forecasts 1 2 Determine the cause of changes in the past 3 Determine the difference between past forecast and actual behavior 4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in future analysis 5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques 6 Determines reasons for significant deviations from expectations 7 Revise the forecast when necessary Classic A style that is widely accepted and stays in fashion for an extended period of time Fad A short lived style that affects a limited part of the population Fashion A style accepted diffused among people at a moderate rate it is slowly accepted in the beginning rapidly rises reach its peak and gradually declines Kim s model of the forecasting process Begins about two years in advance of the retailing season for new products First the environment is scanned to search for current and near future trends in the economic political and cultural The information is then analyzed interpreted and synthesized Market research that focuses on consumers competing companies A forecast can vary on the characteristics of the target markets Then the color textile and style trends are researched via various sources i e trade shows and fashion magazines The elements of the forecasting process awareness and observation fata searching information gathering analysis interpretation and synthesis Trend A general direction or movement of fashion Diffusion Curve A visualization of diffusion of innovation as a bell curve showing the progressive participation of consumers beginning with innovators and early adopters proceeding to majority adoption and concluding with laggards Pendulum Swing Refers to the periodic movement of fashion between potential Long term forecasting 5 year a way to explore possible futures and build a shared vision of an organization direction and development Short Term Forecasting about 1 year ahead involves periodic monitoring of the long term visions and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context the industry and the market place Trend Analysis inspirational search of trends Ideas for products are collected from a variety of sources Cohorts a group of consumers who share preferences and demographic characteristics the basic unit of consumer research Megatrends a trend so fundamental that indicates a critical restructuring of culture Style Characteristics or distinctive tolerance of a garment The combination of features that makes it different from other garments Design a particular or individual interpretation version or treatment of a style Engine of fashion sparked by the dual goals of imitation and differentiation of fitting in and standing out Target Market a slice of the population more likely than others to adopt an innovation at a particular time in the diffusion process or be attached to the tangible and intangible attributes of a product company image or service Zeitgeist The spirit of times all cultural aspects respond to the spirit of times as to the ability to coordinate across product categories Apparel cuisine cars toys etc Nystrom s framework for observing the zeitgeist A Dominating Events Significant occurrences such as war death of a world leader and world fairs Art Vogues Accidental events i e the discovery of King Tut s tomb B Dominating Ideals o Ideals such as patriotism and the Greek ideal of classical beauty multiculturalism environmental and humanitarian issues o New ideals is not the new United States but being reshaped by the changing demographics Hispanic and Asian population growth C Dominating Social Groups o Groups that have wealth power and leadership positions o For example celebrities singers and actors D Dominating Attitude o Captures today s spirit of times o The engine of fashion the interplay between fittings in and wanting to stand out imprints the Zeitgeist o When the desire for differentiation is the dominating attitude in the era new fashions arise o The changes are revolutionary and the pace of fashion is swift I e The flapper era 1920s E Dominating Technology o Today technology is deeply intertwined in everyday life especially in the realms of communication entertainment Chapter 2 Introducing Innovation Diffusion of Innovation A new color or color range A new fiber fabric or fabric property The modification of a silhouette or detail A new way to wear an accessory A new mood expressed in a distinctive style A new definition of appropriateness Rogers consumer adoption model 1962 Awareness the stage at which the consumer first realizes that innovation has been proposed Interest the period when the consumer seeks information about the innovation Evaluation the time required to evaluate the information and form an attitude toward the innovation Trial the testing of the innovation before adoption Adoption Rejection of innovation Rogers consumer adoption model 1983 Knowledge a stage similar to awareness at which a consumer first learns of Persuasion the period when a consumer forms a favorable or unfavorable an innovation attitude toward innovation Decision the activities leading up to adoption or rejection Confirmation the stage after adoption when a consumer seeks validation Implementation actually using the innovation that that decision was correct Innovator People who adopt new product innovations relatively earlier than others in their social group Opinion Leader Individuals who are influential on the attitudes and desions making of people in their social circle Late adopter Laggard last to adopt an innovation They make up 16 of adopters Individual in this category show little to no opinion leadership They have a lower social status and very limited financial resources are the oldest of all adopters Let deep discount di the talking when trying to close out merchandise Fashion Leader people to whom others look for advice about clothes or other aesthetic products Fashion Follower the remaining category of adopters Relative Advantage The perception that an innovation is more satisfactory than items that already exist the same class of products