KIM CTE3809 Test 1 Forecasting the process that translates information into a form that allows learning to take place information and learning most valuable Developing a forecast look to the past look to the future develop evaluate identify the source of inspiration or information the pattern of change direction of change and tempo of change Classic is a style widely accepted and stays in fashion for an extended period of time Fad is a short lived style that affects a limited part of the population Fashion style is accepted and diffused among people at a moderate rate it is slowly accepted in the beginning rapidly rises reach its peak and gradually declines a set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience Kim s Model of forecasting process market consumer research competitive analysis sales records Product product evolution future product color textile style Research steps Awareness observation Data searching Analysis Interpretation Synthesis Environment Current and near future long term future economics Demographics Politics Culture Technology Trend is a general direction or movement of fashion Diffusion curve fad short lived fashion looks like a U curve classic steady line over time Pendulum swing periodic movement of fashion between extremes short narrow vs long wide Long term forecasting 5 years or more a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organizations direction and development Short term forecasting 1 year ahead involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the market place Trend analysis is the practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern or trend in the information Cohorts A group of individuals having a statistical factor Megatrends nasbitt Naisbitt Time frame Decades the techniques for gathering signals Content analysis of 6 000 local newspapers each month The methods to interpret the signals Check the shifting space devoted to an issue The range of the forecasts A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society Style is the characteristic or distinctive appearance of a garment the combination of features that makes it different from other garments Design is a particular or individual interpretation version or treatment of a style Engine of fashion goals satisfied imitation fitting in and differentiation standing out Target market Zeitgeist Fashion is a reflection of the times in which they are created a worn Style Interactions Apparel Cuisine Sports Architecture Interiors Automobiles Toys Avocations Pastimes nystrom framework Nystroms framework Dominating events ideas social groups attitude technology zeitgeist Diffusion of innovation a framework for understanding and predicting fashion change analyzing current fashion within a theoretical framework visualization as a tool of analysis and communication characteristics of a trend Rogers Rogers consumer adoption process model Two models Innovator is a person or an organization that is one of the first to introduce into reality something better than before Opinion leader Individual whose ideas and behavior serve as a model to others Late adopter A person who buys a new service or product after the majority Laggard One that lags or lingers Fashion leader first displays expensive fashions is influential face to face adopt an innovation and transmit it trend spotting Highly interested in fashion Sensitive to their impression on others Gregarious Recognized as having qualities appropriate for leadership Greater number of sources more frequently Fashion follower One that follows the styles or trends of the time Relative advantage A company has a relative advantage in producing an item if they are receiving a profit Compatibility Do 2 things work together Complexity How difficult or involved something is Perceived risk Negative or unexpected consequences a consumer fears may occur as a result of making the wrong purchase decision Operability is the ability to keep equipment a system or a whole industrial installation in a safe and reliable functioning condition Trial ability the extent to which a product can be tried and tested by the consumer Robertson s consumer adoption process model Word of mouth to friends Buzz defined as excitement about something new created when passed through media networks Hype artificially generated PR form of buzz Viral marketing guerrilla new form of marketing aimed at getting customers to try a product share it with people they know to propagate the products popularity spread a message to a wide population gives the feeling that they are discovering the products through personal or media networks IN THE KNOW Analysis dissect a phenomenon to achieve a more complete understanding of its components Synthesis a creative reintegration of the parts An accurate reading of the trend Matching the trend with the consumer profiles Matching the trend with the product category price point and retail concept Hypothesizing about what it will take to energize and accelerate the flow of the trend across segments Demographic age gender marital status income ethnicity occupation region Psychographic values attitudes preferences Consumer segment help identify a consumer based on shared values attitudes preferences and behaviors divides markets into clusters of possible customers who reflect similar characteristics wants and needs BOBO bourgeois bohemian vs DINKS double income no kids vs SWANKS single women no kids generation Y X baby boomer silent generation Geodemographics shows the clustering of similar people in a neighborhood useful for pinpointing the markets where hot trends begin and mapping their potential diffusion STP formula Segment the market select the Target market Position the offering to satisfy the needs of the target customer kotler Diffusion process is a solution to a stochastic differential equation Economic risk the risk that the project s output will not generate sufficient revenues to cover operating costs S curve Chaotic period as diffusion moves from segment to segment Two step flow of fashion adoption Trickle across fashions trickle horizontally within social strata rather than vertically across Trickle down fashions transcend from the elite or upper class to the lower strata in society Trickle up fashions trickle up from the various subcultures streets Simmel fashion victim social demands of fashion appear