Review for Exam II CTE 3809 Trend Analysis and Forecasting Fall 2013 20 Multiple Choices 1 5 points x 20 30 points 10 Short Answer Questions 2 points x 5 20 points 50 points Ch 4 Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt published Megatrends in 1982 Time frame decades The techniques for gathering signals content analysis of 6 000 local newspapers each month the methods to interpret the signal check the shifting space devoted to an issue The range of the forecasts a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society o Megatrend refers to major shifts in society that have a definite impact on individual lifestyles o His method scanning a variety of media sources for both editorial and advertising content to identify patterns which he would then analyze to determine what those patterns reveal The move toward an information based economy The dual compensation of high tech and high touch products The shift to a global economy The shift away from hierarchical structure in favor of informal networks The shift from an either or to a multiple option society o Naisbitt suggests that the challenge will be to embrace technology that preserves our humanness and to reject technology that intrudes upon it Faith Popcorn Cofounded the company Brain Reserve in 1974 o Known for her books The Popcorn Report 1991 Clicking and Evolution o Says that trends take about 10 years to work through the culture and reach all o Argued that trends are predictive because they start small gradually gather market levels momentum Cocooning a stay at home syndrome building in 1981 more info Below o Had repercussion in multiple industries Ex home renovation master bedroom suite larger baths casual comfortable basic fashion bed linens housewares car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic Clicking 1997 o The clear connection between a trend and a business concept o Time frame decades o The techniques for gathering signals scans 350 magazines trade journals newspapers and newsletters 1 Monitors top television shows first run movies Broadway plays best selling books and hit music Shops stores in America and abroad for new products Interviews 4 000 consumers each year about 20 different product categories o Methods to interpret the signals brainstorming interviewing experts o The range of the forecasts the forces shaping the future brailing of the culture the result of this methodology Leads to the identification of trends and the forces shaping the future Faith Popcorn recognized 17 trends o cocooning clanning fantasy adventure pleasure revenge small indulgences anchoring ergonomics female think 99 lives cashing out being alive down ageing village consumer icon toppling Save Our Society Clanning hanging out with people that share values and beliefs or internet Fashion school uniforms university related apparel Cocooning trend termed by Faith Popcorn A stay at home syndrome building in 1981 o Connection between people s stressful work lives and hectic social lives and their wish for a tranquil haven at home This trend had repercussions in multiple industries Consumers demanded larger master bedroom suites larger bedrooms with all the amenities of a spa and media rooms For the apparel industry it meant people were staying home and demanding casual basic fashion Polar fleece internet and catalog fashions were popular o Popcorn sees this trend continuing for another 20 25 years but in a way that will reflect the times Ex Today s home guys multi deluxe garage man rooms Even cars have become moving cocoons with entertainment systems and comforts Counter trends termed by faith popcorn in 1991 flip sides o A contradictory aspect of working with trends mirrors the sometimes contradictory aspects of human behavior The same person may watch his diet exercise strenuously and reward himself with a pint of premium ice cream o Money can be made on a trend and on its flip side if business executives are canny enough to see the click F i t C n o e c s o s o ni n Fitness cocooning I c e A C d r v e e a n m t u premium ice cream adventure travel 2 n g Stan Davis Understanding a Blurred World u r e T r a increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier v o ex You can view runway shows online e tangible attributes are less important that intangible values o intangible values service brand loyalty simulation that allows customers to try l in this new environment executives may feel they are losing their balance Stan Davis says they are experiencing blur To see clearly they must adjust to constant acceleration on products virtually How Does Davis get his ideas Uses long term forecasting Time frame decades dominance is shifting from the information economy to biotechnology Gives equal weight to reading discussion ideas that are powerful and playful Mass customization coined by Stan Davis in 1987 Process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Chris Anderson The Long Tail of the Demand Curve Time frame decades Techniques for gathering signals Ebay Methods to interpret the signals o Interviewing experts internet business CEO s o Gaining access to proprietary data from high profile internet based companies o Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting pattern Range of the forecasts applies to online marketing o The trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people o Anderson using his skills as a journalist Interviewed both CEOs of internet businesses and academics doing related research Examine data and discovered a repeating pattern Looked for additional examples Gave his insight a catchy name the long trail to catch people s attention 3 o long tail of the demand was created because no matter how large the inventory everything sold at least some of the time in traditional retail space is limited and expensive on the internet consumers have access anytime anywhere o In the 21st century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice o Examples of how long tail economy came from sites like Ebay Shows the demand for hits but also shows the demand for niche products small specialty brands and one of a kind designs Environmental scanning 3 research strategies Media scan interviewing observation Enables the forecaster to find signals of change and