CTE3809 Study Guide Exam 1 By Liz Epple TERMS Chapter 1 systematic ways Developing a Forecast Forecasting Using analytical concepts and models to predict forthcoming trends in Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts Determine the causes of change in the past Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future analysis Apply forecasting tools and techniques Determine reasons for significant deviations from expectations Revise the forecast when necessary Classic Longest trends styles that may be adopted at a slow rate but don t die out easily and can last for many years while undergoing slight variations over time Fad Short lived style trend that gains popularity quickly peaks and dies out usually only being adopted by certain social subcultural groups Fashion a presently popular style trend accepted and diffused among people at a moderate rate Remains popular for a while Slow Beginning Rapid Rising Peak is Reached Gradual decline Kim s Model of the forecasting process Beginning about two years in advance this process encompasses three components of fashion forecasting Environment Is scanned to search for current and near future trends in economic political social and cultural environments Market Research that focuses on consumers competing companies and sales records is conducted Product New products evolving within across categories are analyzed first to predict the next trends After research begins on color textile and style trends from fashion sources Ex Trade shows Trend in regards to fashion is a transitory increase or decrease over time in a general fashion direction or movement Diffusion Curve basic reference for determining the future strength and duration of a trend Pendulum Swing The periodic movement of fashion between extremes Fluctuations between fitted and over sized silhouettes Can take from one fashion season or decades to occur Long Term Forecasting A way to explore future possible futures and to build a shard vision of an organization s direction and development Five years Focuses on DIRECTION especially Materials Design Production and retailing Short Term Forecasting Involves more periodic monitoring of the long term vision 1 2 years Acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and marketplace Revisions occur as circumstances dictate Focuses on NEW PRODUCTS especially Color Textile and Style Trend Analysis Trend search that collects ideas for products from various sources Preliminary stage of product development Cohorts Consumers who share characteristics Basic unit of consumer research Megatrends Long term trend that causes shifts in society and that has a definite impact on individual lifestyles Ex Technology category class Style Characteristic mode of presentation that typifies several similar objects of same Design Unique combination of silhouette construction fabric and details that distinguish a single fashion item from others in its category class Engine of Fashion What propels fashion forward is the drive to stand out or fit in Target Market Consumers that are likely to respond to the company s Differentiation or Imitation products offerings Zeitgeist Made up of cultural components is the Spirit of the Times Also called Sociocultural Context Nystrom s Framework List of factors that guide and influence the character direction of fashion and frame work for observing the Zeitgeist Dominating Events Dominating Ideals Dominating Social Groups Dominating Attitude Dominating Technology Chapter 2 Diffusion of Innovation The process by which new trends are adopted by fashion leaders and spread to followers Rogers Consumer Adoption Process Model 1983 o Knowledge A stage similar to awareness at which a consumer first learns of an innovation o Persuasion The period when a consumer forms a favorable unfavorable attitude toward the innovation o Decision The activities leading up to adoption or rejection o Implementation Actually using the innovation o Confirmation The stage after adoption when a consumer seeks validation that the decision was correct Innovator First individuals to adopt an innovation Spark for new trends Colorful rash daring risk takers 2 5 of fashion trend adopters Opinion Leader Individual who possesses the ability to influence other s attitudes and decision making in a desired way to some degree Late Adopter Last to adopt innovations usually have lower social status with limited financial resources and more isolated in terms of contacts 16 of fashion trend adopters Oldest of all adopters Laggard Negative term for late adopters slow Fashion Leader Innovators and early adopters of opinion leaders commonly asked for advice about styles and clothes Also called opinion leaders Fashion Follower Majority of adopters late adopters and laggards 5 ATTRIBUTES OF INNOVATION 1 Relative Advantage Degree to which an innovation is perceived as BETTER than the idea is started from other items in its class 2 Compatibility Degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values past experiences and needs of potential adopters Will this compare when judged against previous ideas 3 Complexity Degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use 4 Trialability Degree to which innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis Can a consumer easily try it 5 Observability Degree to which the results of the innovation are visible to others Perceived Risk Collection of negative or unexpected consequences a consumer fears may occur as a result of a purchase decision Ex Functional or Social Robertson s Consumer Adoption Process Model o Problem Perception Consumer recognizes need for change o Awareness Consumer becomes aware of innovation o Comprehension Learning period when innovation s characteristics functions o Attitude Result of a period of evaluating the innovation o Legitimization Optional stage which more information about innovation is o Trial Trying on Experimenting with the innovation o Adoption Ownership stage o Dissonance Only occurs when consumer questions adoption and seeks are explored searched reassurance Word of Mouth The way trends spread among personal networks when one person visually verbally recommends a new fashion to friends and acquaintances Buzz Excitement about something new created when trends pass through media networks News magazines and talk shows