CTE3809 EXAM II Review Chapter 4 Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt 1982 Megatrends Megatrend A trend so fundamental that it indicates a critical restructuring of culture It involves shifts in lifestyles reflect changes in generational cohorts or mirror cycles in the economy Trends of this magnitude may be felt over the period of a decade from the first time that they surface to the time that they influence purchasing decisions on a mass scale Example A move toward an information based economy dual compensations of high tech and high touch products The move toward an information based economy The dual compensations of high tech and high touch products The shift to a global economy The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks The shift from an either or to a multiple option society Trends and ideas begin in cities and local communities rather than in urban centers like NYC and Washington D C Methods would not work today because most newspapers are part of larger media organizations the matter in which content is chosen is not determined locally so not in a way that would be ideal to identify trends in an area TIME FRAME Decades THE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS Content analysis of 6 000 local newspapers each month THE METHODS TO INTERPRET SIGNALS Check the shifting space THE RANGE OF THE FORECASTS A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for devoted to an issue society Information based economy started in 1950s with important things in culture not single year that the trend started ex Fine Art started in 1910 Faith Popcorn About Popcorn Created BrainReserve a marketing consultancy founded in 1974 The Popcorn Report 1991 Faith Popcorn s first book Clicking 1997 Popcorn s second book identifies 17 specific trends Clicking means the clear connection between a trend and a business concept Identified saw cocooning concept begin to form Popcorn says that a trend takes about 10 years to work through the culture and reach all market levels lifestyle trends that recognize consumer priorities and influence decisions in every aspect of life TIME FRAME Decades THE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS of trend changes Scanning 350 magazines trade journals newspapers and newsletters Monitoring top television shows first run movies Broadway plays best selling books and hit music Shopping stores in America and abroad for new products Interviewing 4 000 consumers each year about 20 different product categories Clicking Cultural trends arise from 3 sources 1 High Culture fine and performance area 2 Low Culture activities pursued locally by special interest groups outside mainstream awareness 3 Pop Culture movies TV music celebrity Cocooning Cocooning a stay at home syndrome building in 1981 had repercussions in multiple industries e g home renovation master bedroom suite larger baths casual comfortable basic apparel fashion bed linens housewares car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic trend formed based on connection between people s stressful work lives and hectic social lives and their wish for a tranquil haven at home Counter trends A Faith Popcorn concept trend For every trend there is a counter trend or flip sides This mirrors the sometimes contradictory aspects of human behavior the same person may watch his diet exercise strenuously and reward himself with a pint of premium ice cream Money can be made on a trend and on its flip side if business executives are canny enough to see the click connections Example Cocooning Adventure travel Understanding a Blurred World Stan Davis In new environment executives may feel as if they are losing their balance but Davis says that they are experiencing blur to see clearly they need to adjust to constant acceleration Increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time getting products to stores in weeks instead of months or years Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier Tangible attributes less important than intangible values o Intangible components include The traditional concept of services The new concepts of services linked to products such as computer simulation that allows customers to try products before buying Information from databases to media buzz and insiders viewpoints on websites Emotions such as brand loyalty status expressed in logos and labels and identification with celebrities Coined mass customization by Davis in 1987 TIME FRAME Decades Dominance is shifting from the information economy to THE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS Reading Discussion and Ideas that are biotechnology powerful and playful Coined by Stan Davis in 1987 The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and Mass customization services http www zazzle com create Chris Anderson The Long Tail of the Demand Curve TIME FRAME Decades THE TECHNIQUES FOR GATHERING SIGNALS Interviewing Experts Internet business CEOs Gaining access to proprietary data from high profile Internet based companies THE METHODS TO INTERPRET SIGNALS Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting pattern THE RANGE OF THE FORECASTS Applies to online marketing bloggers E Bay Etsy The trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people Anderson using his skills as a journalist o Interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research o Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern o Looked for additional examples o Gave his insight a catchy name the long tail to catch people s attention Anderson 2006 In the 21st century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice example putting lesser known albums in juke box will still create profit because storage costs very little and people will choose it sales aggregated to make a significant profit page 130 Curve shows few items selling a lot and many items selling far fewer copies for the juke box example curve never reaches zero No matter how large the inventory something will sell at least some of the time Internet space inventory is cheap so online retailers do not just have to include merchandise that is popular can also sell more niche market items allows people to follow their own preferences rather than stick to just the hits In the marketplace a few items sell often but many more items sell to niche audiences the long tail of the demand curve