Study Guide for Exam 2 Chapter 4 Cultural Indicators Kim s model of the forecasting process Long term Forecasting five years or more a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization s direction and development Short term Forecasting about one year ahead involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the marketplace Long Term Forecasting Long timeline Anticipates the future by linking breakthroughs in science technology and medicine to demographic trends Examines the likely result on the economy political system and environment Forecasting Approach Time frame for prediction five years ahead a decade or more The techniques used for capturing signals The method used to interpret the signals and make the forecasts The range of forecasts general or restricted to certain countries or industries John Naisbitt 1982 Megatrends Coined the term megatrend to refer to major shifts in society that have a definite impact on individual lifestyles Time frame decades The techniques for gathering signals content analysis of 6000 local newspapers each month The methods to interpret the signals check the shifting space devoted to an issue The range of the forecasts a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society Naisbitt 1982 Megatrends Naisbitt identified 10 megatrends in his book including The move toward an information based economy The dual compensations of high tech and high touch products The shift to a global economy The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks The shift from an either or to a multiple option society Faith Popcorn Brain Reserve Marketing consultancy in 1974 The Popcorn Report 1991 Cocooning a stay at home syndrome building in 1981 had repercussions in multiple industries e g home renovation master bedroom suite larger baths casual comfortable basic fashion bed linens house wares car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic Clicking 1997 Faith Popcorn Faith Popcorn was the cofounder of the marketing consultancy BrainReserve and is credited as the trendspotter who recognized the trend for cocooning She made a connection between people s stressful work lives and hectic social lives and their wish for a tranquil haven at home Time frame decades Techniques for gathering signals Scans 350 magazines trade journals newspapers and newsletters monitors top television shows first run movies Broadway plays best selling books and hit music shops stores in America and abroad for new products interviews 4 000 consumers each year about 20 different product categories Brailing of the culture Methods to interpret the signals Brainstorming interviewing experts Range of forecasts the forces shaping the future 17 Trends Clicking 1997 Clicking the clear connection between a trend and a business concept Cocooning Safe homelike environment Fashion polar fleece Internet and catalog fashions Clanning Hanging out with people that share values and beliefs or interest Fashion school uniforms university related apparel Others are fantasy adventure consumers need for excitement and stimulation without sacrificing safety and security pleasure revenge small indulgences anchoring egonomics products that are customized to an individual consumer to offset the impersonal feeling of modern culture female think the idea that women are more comfortable in an environment that is compatible with the way they think and behave and that such an environment is less hierarchical and more relational 99 lives cashing out being alive down ageing village consumer icon toppling and save our society Counter trends Flip sides for every trend there are counter trends for example fitness and premium ice cream cocooning and adventure travel Understanding a Blurred World Stan Davis Increasing speed in communication and computation are shrinking time Connectivity and online access are eliminating distance as a barrier Tangible attributes less important than intangible values Constant acceleration Stan Davis is a futurist writer speaker and consultant on changes in society and their impact on business Time frame decades dominance is shifting from the information economy to biotechnology Techniques for gathering signals reading discussion ideas that are powerful and playful Mass Customization Stan Davis In his book Davis coined the term mass customization in 1987 which is defined as The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services Chris Anderson The Long Tail of the Demand Curve Anderson studied the 21st century marketplace Time frame decades Techniques for gathering signals interviewing experts Internet business CEOs gaining access to proprietary data from high profile Internet based companies Methods to interpret signals Plotted the data sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis and hypothesized about resulting pattern Range of the forecasts Applies to online marketing The trick to trend spotting is to ask the right people Anderson using his skills as a journalist interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research examined data and discovered a repeating pattern looked for additional examples and gave his insight a catchy name the long tail to catch people s attention In the 21st century hits will still happen but niches represent the new emerging marketplace a marketplace of infinite choice Niches are becoming more and more important The Long term Forecaster s Toolkit Three scenarios of alternative but possible futures looks for cultural drift directional pointers for the way society is moving Continuation of the drift at the same rate Acceleration of the drift Tapering off of the drift The forecaster is looking for Shifts in demographics that can restructure society Changes in industry and market structure Differences in consumer interests values and motivation Breakthroughs in technology and science Changes in the economic picture Alteration in political cultural economic alliances between countries Side note demographic trends are one of the most important factors when forecasting consumer trends The Long term Forecaster s Toolkit Research strategy 1 Media scan Research strategy 2 Interviewing ask people ask experts Environmental Scanning Focus group interview one of the most popular techniques in consumer research consist of