30 questions 20 multiple choice each worth 1 point 10 short answer questions each 2 points Study Guide for Exam 1 Definitions are not the only thing that is important She wants us to know descriptions of the theories she put on the study guide Chapter 1 The Fashion Forecasting Process Information is a business asset that can be managed like any other In order to be competitive information is important which is why it is considered an asset There is a lot of information out there It is raw data So it should be processed to add meaning to it The most valuable currencies in today s competitive climate are information and learning Forecasting is the process that translates information into a form that allows learning to take place Forecasting Defined Forecasters Look for the new the fresh the innovative Interpret signals using judgment and creativity Analyze the whys behind emerging trends Predict trend movement Many people are involved in forecasting marketers buyers product developers etc Developing a Forecast Look to the past Look to the future Develop the forecast Evaluate the forecast Know these more detailed steps in developing a forecast Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts 1 2 Determine the causes of change in the past 3 Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior 4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future analysis 5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques 6 Determine reasons for significant deviations from expectations 7 Revise the forecast when necessary A Model of the Forecasting Process know this Usually start from Environment scanning research current and long term trends and then analyze the changes in economics demographics politics culture and technology Next is Market research consumer behaviors and wants be aware of the competition and analyze sales records to help predict future trends Next is Product come up with the actual product and future products innovation remodels etc Next is Research Steps be aware and consciously observe what is happening around you including changes gather and analyze data interpret meaning and synthesize gather everything and come up with the product Forecasting should not be too broad it should be for your own target market So your forecast should be as specific as possible Forecasting and the Bottom Line Forecasting creates competitive advantage by Anticipating trends Aligning product with consumer preferences Taking advantage of new opportunities Facilitating the timely arrival of products in the market Re Positioning products Fine tuning marketing Why forecast Timeliness is very important Making sure that the product comes out at the right place at the right time is key for success Developing a Forecast Forecasts should identify The source of inspiration or information The pattern of change Direction of change Tempo of change Visualization and Forecasting Visualization helps forecasters understand and communicate the movement of fashion and project future directions Visualize your ideas to make them clear to yourself and to make them easier to communicate to other people Three of the most familiar patterns are fashion curves the pendulum swing and the fashion cycle Fashion Curves Fashion trends are usually classified by duration and penetration visualized as curves with time on the bottom axis and consumer adoption rates on the vertical axis In this way it is easy to show the difference between the shortest trends fads and the longest trends classics Another way of visualizing is through a Diffusion Curve NUMBER OF ADOPTERS FAD FASHION CLASSIC TIME DIFFUSION CURVE Pendulum Swing periodic movement of fashion between extremes For example fluctuations between long and short hemlines fitted and oversized silhouettes and dressed up and casual looks These swings may take decades or occur in just one fashion season Fashion cycles fashion ideas that return periodically to popularity have a fixed regular periodicity Recurring patterns are called long wave phenomenon Bell shaped curve Introduction growth maturity decline Introductory new style is introduced and begins to gain acceptance supply of the new style is limited Growth competition begins to increase as the style is exposed to more and more consumers and gains popularity Maturity longest period in a fashion life cycle competition becomes more intense so prices begin to drop to appeal to mass market Decline styles are going out of fashion and losing their popularity Long term and Short term Forecasting know difference Long term Forecasting five years or more a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization s direction and development Short term Forecasting about one year ahead involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the market place Forecasting Textiles and Apparel It all starts with the fiber companies then the yarn producers who forecast structures and textures of fabrics short term forecasting then weavers and knitters who forecast patterns and prints of fabrics short term forecasting then apparel designers and manufacturers who forecast the design concept as in the silhouette and details short term forecasting and lastly the retailers who test styles and forecast sales short term forecasting Long term forecasting deals more with economic cycles lifestyle trends social trends consumer preferences and trends in the arts Typically forecasting begins 2 years ahead Color forecasting is typically done 20 24 months ahead of the target selling season Textile development is typically done 12 24 months prior to the target selling season International fabric fairs show new trends in fabrics one year ahead of the target selling season Side note every industry needs a color forecaster not just apparel Trend Style and Design know difference between these A trend is a general direction or movement of fashion a transitory increase or decrease over time A style is the characteristic or distinctive appearance of a garment the combination of features that makes it different from other garments A design is a particular or individual interpretation version or treatment of a style a unique combination of silhouette construction fabric and details that distinguishes a single fashion object from all other objects of the same category or classes Fashion Fad and Classic know difference between these A fashion