Review for Exam II CTE 3809 Trend Analysis and Forecasting Fall 2012 20 Multiple Choices 1 5 points x 20 30 points 10 Short Answer Questions 2 points x 5 20 points 50 points Ch 4 Cultural Indicators John Naisbitt Megatrends Megatrends first trend spotting book to become a best seller Megatrend is a critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society Identified 10 megatrends o Move toward an information based society o Dual compensations of high tech and high touch products o The shift to a global economy o The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks o The shift from an either or to a multiple option society Idea behind book was that trends and ideas began in cities and local communities rather than in urban centers Criticized as mega babble Faith Popcorn Cultural trends arise from high low and pop culture Cofounded Brain Reserve in 1974 marketing consultancy working with an array of clients in many product categories First book Popcorn Report 1991 Credited as trend spotter who saw a stay at home syndrome building called cocooning Made connection between people s stressful work lives and their wish for a tranquil home will continue for 20 25 years but in a transformed state that reflects the times Second book Clicking 1997 Cocooning Stay at home syndrome Individuals socializing less and retreating to their home life more due to stressful work lives and wishing for a tranquil home Counter trends Stan Davis Trends that contrast with another prevailing set of trends both which offer opportunities for businesses because of the contradictory aspects of human behavior Considers the fundamental dimensions of the universe time space mass in relationship to the economy Executives are experiencing blur rather than losing their balance in this new environment and to see clearly they will need to adjust to constant acceleration 1 First book Future Perfect 1987 o Coined mass customization process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver goods Second book 2020 Vision 1991 o Applied idea of life cycle to the economy to predict the end of the current information economy o Current information economy will end in late 2020s o Economies don t end but the dominance will shift o Biotechnology and genomics will take place of information economy Process that has been used by apparel manufacturers and retailers since the mid 1990 s to provide consumers with design input and custom fit Mass customization Chris Anderson Editor in chief of Wired magazine History of culture has been written in hits movies tv shows media etc There will still be hits in the 21st century but niches will represent the new emerging marketplace one of infinite choice When testing data result was a demand curve that showed a few items selling a lot and many items selling far fewer copies curve never reached zero No matter the inventory everything sold at least some creating long tail of the demand curve Method of systematically tracking and analyzing trends using media sources A plan for this enables the forecaster to find signals of change and signposts to the Environmental scanning future in today s media Media scan Research strategy Scanning media for clues Collecting bits and pieces from a broad spectrum of sources seeing hints of futures hearing of new directions and linking shaping into a vision In depth interview Conducted one on one in an attempt to gain a deep understanding of a consumer s relationship to a product or product category Interviews last several hours Focus group interview products in a group interview setting Delphi method A qualitative method of research based on informal uncensored talk about A method of polling used to elicit expert input using a process that combines brainstorming and debate to generate ideas clarify complex issues and reach consensus Because personalities are removed from the situation it is like a debate but without the anger spin or bias Goal of this is to encourage debate by making interaction independent of personality Scenario writing 2 Scenario describes the evolution from the present situation to one or more possible futures Two ways to write scenarios that future o Start with a vision of the future and work backward to discover the path to o Project present forces into the future plotting their likely evolution Futurists recommend a minimum of three scenarios o Surprise free projects continuation of current conditions o Best case takes an optimistic view toward technological breakthroughs o Worst case built using more negative possibilities and a pessimistic view and economics Must be vivid and plausible Observation Provides access to the insiders viewpoint Provides opportunity to understand the meaning of everyday happenings and reality of situations as defined by the participants Invites involvement in concrete activities in natural settings as a way to understand people s behaviors attitudes and belief structures Kim s model of the forecasting process 2011 PPT slide Ch 5 Color Forecasting Color forecaster Do NOT dictate colors in the marketplace but rather consider the evolution of a color of the previous seasons and figure out when the consumer will be ready for a different version Members of one or more color associations and collaborate with other members to develop industry color forecasts Work 18 to 24 months in advance of the season to provide input for the designer s decisions Purpose is to discover and rediscover colors and relate them to lifestyles of the present and near future Color Association of the United States CAUS One of the two leading professional color organizations in America Based in Manhattan Publishes The Standard Color Reference of America a book showing color Issued first forecast in 1917 focusing on women s fashions standards for wool cotton and silk industries in the United States Not for profit trade association Color Marketing Group CMG One of the two leading professional color organizations in America International nonprofit association based in Washington D C was formed to provide advanced color information for industries from apparel to automobiles etc 3 Focus is on color as a marketing tool Cotton Inc Industry trade association Color forecasters work for these types of industries Color in marketing Intensified after World War II with the increase in demand and availability of consumer goods Marketers realized that color could be used to promote products across the spectrum of the