Wireless Networking Issues and Trends Raj Jain Washington University in Saint Louis Saint Louis MO 63131 Jain cse wustl edu These slides are available on line at http www cse wustl edu jain cse574 06 Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 1 2006 Raj Jain Overview 1 Top 10 Recent Networking Developments 2 Wireless History 3 Life Cycles of Technologies 4 Wireless Industry Trends 5 Wireless Research Trends Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 2 2006 Raj Jain Top 10 Recent Networking Developments 1 Large investments in Security Message Aware Networking All messages scanned by security gateways 2 Wireless WiFi is spreading Intel Centrino 3 More Cell phones than POTS Smart Cell phones w PDA email video images Mobility 4 Broadband Access is growing faster than cell phones 5 Ethernet extending from Enterprise to Access to Metro 6 Wiring more expensive than equipment Wireless Access 7 Voice over Internet Protocol VOIP is in the Mainstream VOIP over Broadband Wi Fi Cellular 8 Multi service IP Voice Video and Data 9 Terabyte Petabyte storage Not VoD High Speed Networking 10 Gaming Internet and wireless based Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 3 2006 Raj Jain 2002 2005 Mega to Giga Transition Memory in Laptops Megabytes to Gigabytes Cordless Phones 900 Mega Hertz to 2 4 5 8 GHz Processors MIPS Mega Instructions per second to GFIPS Giga Flops Digital Cameras 100 500 Mega Pixels to Giga Pixels Office Networks 10 100 Mega bps to 1 10 Giga bps Worldwide Wireless Network Users Millions to Billions Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 4 2006 Raj Jain Wireless History 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 Hertz discovered electromagnetic waves 1898 First commercial radio data service 1921 First Mobile Radio Wireless dispatch system for Detroit Police 1946 First Mobile Telephone Service In St Louis by AT T Half duplex Push to talk 1970 First Cellular Phone Service In Chicago by AT T w cell handoff and roaming 1971 First Wireless Data Network Aloha at University of Hawaii 1990 First Commercial Wireless LAN Product AT T WaveLAN 1997 First Wireless LAN Standard IEEE 802 11 2Mbps Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 5 2006 Raj Jain Life Cycles of Technologies Number of Problems Solved Research Productization Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 6 Time 2006 Raj Jain Industry Growth Number of Companies New Entrants Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 7 Consoli Stable dation Growth Time 2006 Raj Jain Hype Cycles of Technologies Potential Research Hype Dis Success or illusionment Failure Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 8 Time 2006 Raj Jain Hype Cycle 2004 UWB WiMAX Mesh Networks Sensors Visibility Mesh Networks Wide Area VOIP RFID Wi Fi Hot Spot Technology Peak of Trough of Slope of Plateau of Trigger Expectations Disappointment Enlightenment Productivity Maturity Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 9 Based on Gartner Research July 2004 2006 Raj Jain Telecom Revenue Video Consumer Broadband Consumer long distance Business local Business long distance Business data Consumer local Wireless Total 2003 Revenue in Billions 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0 2 2 8 20 7 26 3 26 1 44 8 46 9 91 5 260 7 0 3 3 5 18 2 26 7 24 5 45 6 42 2 108 7 271 5 2 5 4 8 9 2 25 5 18 2 45 4 32 3 153 6 294 9 05 4 0 16 0 26 4 23 0 46 6 39 0 119 2 277 0 1 0 4 2 13 6 26 1 21 3 47 1 36 2 132 8 285 0 1 6 4 6 11 3 25 8 19 7 46 8 34 0 144 5 291 3 Annual Growth 65 7 11 4 15 0 0 6 7 0 0 3 7 25 10 9 2 5 Long distance is disappearing Most of the revenues are going to be from wireless Source Instat MDR Business Week Feb 28 2005 Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 10 2006 Raj Jain Wireless Data Connections North American Wireless Data Connections Millions 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source Gartner U S Wireless Data Market Update 2004 Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 11 2006 Raj Jain Wireless Industry Trends Wireless industry is stronger than wireline Particularly strong growth in developing countries 48 of global telco revenues coming from wireless 26 of wireless revenues coming from data vs voice Past Voice email SMS Ring tones Present Push Gaming Pictures Instant Messaging Future Music Video Location Remote monitoring mcommerce Long Term Video telephony remote enterprise applications remote management Multiparty collaboration Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 12 2006 Raj Jain Home Networking Equipment Trends 16 14 3 13 2 14 12 5 12 10 7 9 3 10 7 3 8 6 4 2 5 4 11 3 12 3 13 6 6 9 9 2 5 1 7 1 2 0 9 0 7 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4 6 2 6 2 8 2 7 0 2003 2004 Wired Only Wireless Wireless US Home Networking Purchases in millions Total Purchase Source JupiterResearch Home Networking Model 8 04 US Only Wireless outsold wired home networking gear for the first time in 2004 Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 13 2006 Raj Jain Mobility 1 35 Billion mobile subscribers vs 1 2 Billion Fixed line subscribers at the end of 2003 ITU Number of wired phones in USA is declining for the first time since the Great Depression 20 of world population is mobile Need internet access 70 of internet users in Japan have mobile access Vehicular mobility up to 250 Km h IEEE 802 20 Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 14 2006 Raj Jain Wireless Technologies to Watch 2006 Ultra wide band has arrived Many companies showing products MIMO Pre N routers Multimedia over Wireless Media center extenders Video over Cell phones Wireless storage for home 4x250GB Wireless USB RFID Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 15 2006 Raj Jain Wireless Research Trends NSF funded 40M for networking research over the past three years Three areas Software programmable networks Sensor Networks All other type of networking Two Thirds of networking funding on wireless Defense Networks are mostly wireless Washington University in St Louis CSE574s 2 16 2006 Raj Jain Top 10 Downloads from Computer Communications 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Christos Xenakis and Lazaros Merakos Security in third Generation Mobile Networks Computer Communications 27 2004 638 650 Marko Hannikainen Timo D Hamalainen Markku Niemi and Jukka Saarinen Trends in personal wireless data communications Computer Communications 25 2002 84 99 David Remondo and Ignas G Niemegeers Ad hoc networking in future wireless communications Computer Communications 26 2003 36 40 S DasBit and S Mitra Challenges of computing in mobile cellular environment a survey Computer Communications 26 2003 2090 2105 Theuns
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