GOV 312L 1ST EditionLecture 7Housekeeping: studying for Exam 1Looking for major points, key words in the readings that had been mentioned in class, examples:BlowbackTechnical critique vs critical critiqueMajor wars and US interventions discussedIt will be multiple choice, 30 questions.Previous Lecture Outline:I . The post-9/11 public argument for invading IraqInterlude: why wasn’t this done before?II. the invasion of IraqIII. The initial period of occupation of IraqCurrent Lecture OutlineI. Current situation in IraqII. Iraq’s Civil WarIII. The US surge and WithdrawalCurrent lectureI. Current situation in IraqGeneral QuestionsWhy did us forces stay in Iraq so long? What was the argument fro staying in Iraq after it was clear that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction?Why did a civil war erupt, when there had not been a civil war before?Features of Iraq around the time of the 2013 formal departure of US troops1. bombings against civilians2. military battles between Nur al Maliki government and Sunni militants (reminiscent of US battles in 2003-20043. Absence of political reconciliationSome are beginning to recognize al Maliki, but generally the majority does notThose that are currently in charge:-Nuri al Malaki is the prime minister(head of government). He is mainly in charge. Shia Arab-Jala Talabani is the president (head of state). He has a ceremonial role in relations in Iraq on an international level. KurdCurrent news:-there is now actually prominent al Qaeda presence in Iraq. Iraq is now a magnet for al Qaeda, and also a breeding ground for new individuals become interest.II. The US surge and WithdrawalContext of 2004-20082004- Bremer hands power to unelected Iraqi Governing council (were mainly Iraqi exiles); US presidential campaign2005- Iraqis vote on new constitution and government; local Shias, not US appointees lead government **first time! Government that is not just US appointed (Bremer’s gov)2006- violence escalates, civil war begins. Key: bombing of a revered Shia shrine2007- height of troop surge – in response to escalating violence, by end of year, violence decreased again2008- withdrawal agreement signed (for pullout by end of 2011) and Iraq features prominently in US presidential campaignrationale after entering the war: recognize the original premise for war was flawed, but we can’t just suddenly withdrawal after we have already asserted some US influence- Bush uses this rationale to win re-election.Up to the 2009 Presidential electionA lot of Democrats voted against desert storm earlier- and were later hurt politically because that operation was very quick and easy. Thus many Democrats voted for the war in Iraq. Hillary Clinton voted for the war as a result of this. Obama was not in the senate during the time, so his record was clean.Themes from Nir Rosen’s reportingNir Rosen reported from outside the green zone- where US militia weren’t present and you were under the influence of local forces. He has more POV from local Iraqis1. Iraq pre-2003 was not a blank slate. Even under brutal authoritarian rule, different groups, including the long oppressed Shia, had political influence within society.2. Power before and after the 2003 invasion rested with those groups woho could provide the security and necessities of Iraqi families3. The formal political institutions of the US- led occupation were viewed through the lens of these existential pursuits and approached according to the position ofthe particular group’s outlook of how such institutions would affect them.Sunnis were 1) marginalized by the CPA orders, then 2) further marginalized by the elections. Felt very threatenedFeatures of Iraq around the time of the 2013 formal departure of US troops1. bombings against civilians2. military battles between Nir al Maliki government and Sunni militants (reminiscent of US battles in 2003 – 2004)3. absence of political reconciliationPolitical Milestones and Violence As of today 11/30/06 a conservative estimate puts Iraqi civilian casulaties between 48,904 and 54,266. Total coaltion casualties are 3132. Iraqi civilian body counts are not kept track of by US military, an outsider group “Iraq Body Count” is keeping track via newspaper/journal reports of deaths. Sunni vs ShiaSunni -Traditionally follow the line of leadership from first four rightly guided caliphs (Abu Bakr, Uman, Uthman, Ali)-Contemporary religious leadership is not hierarchically organized or centralized (following abolition of caliphate in 1924-Comprise 80% of muslims in middle east and worldwide-President of Egypt, king of Saudi Arabia, Saddam Hussein-HAMAS and FATAH-Al qaedaShia-Follow line from Muhammad to Ali to Hussein and subsequent line of religious leadership through the Imams-Structured leadership around clerical learning with clear ranks (grand ayatollahs,ayatollahs, hoiiat alislam, etc)-is 20% of global muslim community, concentrated in Iran and neighboring regions-ruling elite of Iran-Muqtada al-Sadr and Nouri al-Maliki, plus 60% of IraqisOrigins of Civil war-Some violent Sunni and Shia movements were initially coordinated in opposition to US occupation.-By late 2004, these ties gave way to open conflict, sarting after Battle of Fallujah (11/2004) when Sunni attacks on police disproportionately harmed Shias-Soon afterward, Sunni refugees moved into West Baghdad, expelling Shias in the process-Subsequently Shia movements, reacting to the bombing of the Al Askariyya shrine mosque in Samarra in April 2006, pushed back and today Baghdad is predominantly Shia(85%)3 main sunni groups (the insurgency”)Insurgency- targeting the iraqi government and occupation forces.Bathists- want a secular state. Islamists want a religious state-Sunni Islamists: seek to establish Islamic state. Has conducted suicide bombings, kidnapping, and executions of civilians. Joined by small amount of foreign fighters (less than 5% of insurgents are non Iraqi) Ex:-Former Bathists: some seek restoration of Hussein, others seem to be pursuing their own poltical survival. Members dissolved (formerly 50k strong) Bath party. Has attacked occupation forces and government installations.-Sunni nationalists: not connected to former Bath party or islamist movements, seek expulsion of foreign forces. Has focused attacks on military targets and occasionally condemned attacks on civilians. Leadership of the Iraqi Kurds-Historically defiant of the Iraqi state (and de facto independent since Operation: