Judah Levine, 3070L7 1http://physics.colorado.edu/phys3070http://physics.colorado.edu/phys3070Judah LevineJudah LevineJILA SJILA [email protected]@colorado.edu303 492303 492--7785 (27785 (2--7785)7785)M,F 11M,F 11--Noon, W 1Noon, W 1--3 pm3 pmalso by appointmentalso by appointmentJudah Levine, 3070L7 2How much oil is there in the US?How much oil is there in the US?Q∞= total resource available over all timeHubbert (1956): 165×109barrels, not counting AlaskaPeak in production will occur 1966-1971.Production rate approximately follows a GaussianNormal distributionJudah Levine, 3070L7 3HubbertJudah Levine, 3070L7 4How much oil is there in the US?How much oil is there in the US?Q∞= total resource available over all timeMore recent value is 324×109barrels including AlaskaAmount remaining now is about 134×109barrelsIncluding about 4-5×109barrels in Alaska(“proven” + estimate of undiscovered)Current production level is about 2 ×109barrels/yearAbout 68 years total at current production levelOil in Alaska contributes about 2+ yearsJudah Levine, 3070L7 5HubbertOil production has increased somewhat more slowly thanpredicted, and the current rate may be near the maximum.Judah Levine, 3070L7 6World oil reservesWorld oil reservesQ∞= 2.5×1012barrelsEstimated maximum remaining oil= 1.8×1012barrelsProven reserves= 1.1×1012barrelsCurrent product rate= 3×1010barrels/yearPossibly at or close to the peak rateMaximum estimate will last about 60 yearsProven reserves will last about 37 yearsat current production levelJudah Levine, 3070L7 7SummarySummaryQQProven + estimate of undiscovered Proven + estimate of undiscovered worldworld--wide oil reserves will last about wide oil reserves will last about 6060--70 years at current production70 years at current productionQQIs the undiscovered estimate accurate?Is the undiscovered estimate accurate?QQWhat is the future rate?What is the future rate?QQHow are these quantities influenced by How are these quantities influenced by price?price?Judah Levine, 3070L7 8Cost of gasolineCost of gasolineJudah’s job in 1958: $0.75 per hour, later $1 per hourCost of gasoline: about $0.28 per gallon1 hour of labor buys about 3+ gallons of gasolineJudah Levine, 3070L7 9Cost of gasolineCost of gasolineJudah’s job in 1958: $0.75 per hour, later $1 per hourCost of gasoline: about $0.28 per gallon1 hour of labor buys about 3+ gallons of gasolineCurrent office job in JILA: $9 per hourCost of gasoline: about $2.30 per gallon1 hour of labor buys almost 4 gallons of gasolineProduction matched to demand to keep price stable.This is unlikely to last if peak in world-wide production peak is coming in next decade.Judah Levine, 3070L7 10““NaturalNatural””gasgasFirst use of gas for light used “producer” gas:C + H2O → CO + H2Coal SteamSwitch to using methane starting in 1940s and 50sMethane thrown away before thatCH4+ 2O2 → CO2+ 2H2OClean burning with adequate oxygenHard to use for transportationJudah Levine, 3070L7 11Judah Levine, 3070L7 12Judah Levine, 3070L7 13Judah Levine, 3070L7 14How long will it last?How long will it last?US Annual consumption is about 20×1012ft3/yearProven reserves= 189×1012ft3Undiscovered reserves=682×1012ft3Proven reserves will last 9+ yearsUndiscovered reserves will last 34+ yearsDomestic natural gas will run out before domestic oilat current production levelJudah Levine, 3070L7 15Total about 6400×1012ft3World consumption 85×1012ft3/yrAbout 75+ years at current production levelSlightly different from numbersin the textUndiscovered on previous figsabout 4X proven reservesJudah Levine, 3070L7 16Coal Reserves and years at current rateJudah Levine, 3070L7 173%/yearMost of the coalin the US is usedto generateelectricityJudah Levine, 3070L7 18The future?The future?QQUse domestic coal and deal with the Use domestic coal and deal with the pollution and dirtpollution and dirtQQUse imported natural gas and deal with Use imported natural gas and deal with the political problemsthe political
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