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CU-Boulder PHYS 3070 - Lecture Notes

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1Class Announcements:• Homework #3 due today at 5 pm in the wooden boxes• Solutions will be available tomorrow Exam #1 is in class next Wednesday September 24, 2008.The exam will be open book and calculators are allowed. Thus, make sure to bring the book and a calculator to the exam!The exam will cover all of the material in Chapters 1-2 of the text, Homework assignments 1-3, and lecture material through this Friday.Exam problems will be similar to homework assignments, in class worked out problems, and issues discussed in the text or in lecture. I will post a practice exam (from a past year) on the web page later today.http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.htmlHow does this compare to the worldsupply?How much money is the oil worth?What just passed in the U.S. House of Representatives?The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. For AEO2007, an OCS access case was prepared to examine the potential impacts of the lifting of Federal restrictions on access to the OCS in the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Currently, except for a relatively small tract in the eastern Gulf, resources in those areas are legally off limits to exploration and development. Mean estimates from the MMS indicate that technically recoverable resources currently off limits in the lower 48 OCS total 18 billion barrels of crude oil and 77 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Table 10).The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.Clicker QuestionConsider the following plot of production rate against time for the US oil supply:Which of the following must be true?A. after T3 no more new oil is foundB. the rate of production at T3 is zeroC. after T4 the curve will rise againD. the area under the curve from T0 to T3 is the same as the area from T3 to T4.E. (none of these must be true)(If you think several must be true - click your favorite)Some MIGHT be true, but not MUST be true.After T3, you might find more oil, for example that "extension" out to T4 might be because of one last big supply!The rate of production at T3 is maximum, definitely not zero.After T4 the curve could rise again, but there's no guarantee.There is no reason the curve HAS to be symmetric. (Hubbert assumed it will be nearly so, but it's not a rule or law).To T1 T2T3 T4Rate(bbl/year)Hubbert had one other advantage (preview).Look at discoveries of wells. Because production always follows. (Takes about a decade for a new discovery to "come online".) Discovery rate is not constant. Rises steeply at first in a given region, then steadily declines. 1.1 x 109bbl discovered in US in 2003 (50% less than previous year)"Discovery" can also include revisions of predictions from wells due to improved technology. How much oil is there in the US?Hubbert (1956): Q∞ =165×109barrels, not counting AlaskaPeak in production will occur 1966-1971.More recent value is Q∞ = 324×109barrels including Alaska.However, we have already used much of this.Amount remaining now is about 134×109bbl,including about 5×109bbl in Alaska.* This includes (“proven reserves” + estimate of undiscovered) !2Current production level in US is about 2 ×109barrels/yearThus, there are about 68 years total at current production level.Oil in Alaska contributes about 2-3+ years.* Note that this does not include the Artic National Wildlife Refuge (see homework problem).http://arctic.fws.gov/Former Alaskan Senator, Frank Murkowski, in 2001, stood on the floor of the Senate and held up a large piece of white posterboard. He said "that" is all one can see in winter on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge's coastal plain: "It's flat, it's unattractive, it's not pristine; this is what it looks like. Don't be misinformed." World Oil ReservesUsing Hubbert-type analysis: Q∞(world)= 2.5×1012barrelsBy comparison the value for the USA = Q∞ = 324×109barrelsEstimated maximum remaining oil in the world = 1.8×1012barrelsProven reserves = 1.1×1012barrelsCurrent product rate= 3×1010barrels/yearProven reserves will last about 37 yearsat current production level (big assumption) !Maximum estimate will last about 60-80 years.Clicker Question"Hubbert Curve" analyses predict global oil production peaking within 0-20 years.But what about future oil discoveries, increased efficiency, improved technology? What impact will these have?A) The Hubbert Curve presumably already factors that in.B) It will increase the "time to peak", but by a negligible amountC) It will increase the "time to peak" by perhaps a factor of 2.D) It could increase the "time to peak" indefinitely - centuries, millennia, the sky is the limit.A is the best answer - the Hubbert curve certainly factors in new discoveries and technologies. B is also correct.http://www.opec.orgOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesClicker QuestionWhich of the following counties is not a member of OPEC?A) NigeriaB) VenezuelaC) IranD) IraqE) RussiaOPEC MembersAlgeriaAngolaIndonesiaIranIraqKuwaitLibyaNigeriaQatarSaudi ArabiaUAEVenezuela343% of global oil production comes from OPEC nations.Note that there are fewer wells in the Middle East Æ because they are still tapping their “early” rich reserves.OPEC Web Page:Frequently asked questionsIs the world running out of oil?Oil is a limited resource, so it may eventually run out, although not for many years to come.At the rate of production in 2005, OPEC's oil reserves are sufficient to last more than 80 years, while non-OPEC oil producers' reserves might last less than 30 years. The worldwide demand for oil is rising and OPEC is expected to be an increasingly important source of that oil. If we manage our resources well, use oil efficiently and develop new fields, then our oil reserves should last for many more generationsto


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CU-Boulder PHYS 3070 - Lecture Notes

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