Energy and the Environment Lecture 10 PHYS/ENVS 3070 Professor Dmitri Uzdensky Sept. 17, 2014 PHYS/ENVS 3070 1Announcements: • Read Chapter 2. • CAPA Homework #3 due Friday, Sept. 19, 11pm. • CAPA answers are automatically released right after Sat. 8am deadline (log into CAPA and click “View previous set” link). • No CAPA homework due next Friday! • Midterm Exam I: • Friday, Sept. 26, 3:00 -- 3:50 pm, in G1B20. • A practice exam will be posted on D2L. • If you require extended exam accommodations through DS, please contact me this week. • Guest lecture next Monday, Sept. 22, by Andrew Revkin: “Getting comfortable with global warming” Sept. 17, 2014 PHYS/ENVS 3070 2Today’s(Lecture:(• Basic&Oil&Extrac-on&Process;&&• Oil&Reserves;&&• Oil&Produc-on&in&the&US&and&the&Hubbert&Peak&Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 3&Oil(prospec4ng(–(Finding((the(trap(Impermeable&rock&trap&Porous&materials&Surface&Upward&pressure&forces&oil&into&trap&Sound&source& Receiver&Geologists&locate&promising&areas.&&Test&drill&(“wildcat”&well).&If&you&find&oil,&this&is&considered&a&“proven&reserve”&(i.e.&economically&recoverable,&known&to&exist).&Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 4&Typical drill: Rotating bit, hollow shaft with coolant. Typical cost $100 / foot of depth Deepest ~ 5 miles Average ~ 1 mile (5300 feet) There are ~1600 oil rigs and ~500,000 oil-producing wells in the US alone! Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 5&Proven(Oil(Reserves(AWer&oil&is&found&by&drilling,&amount&that&is&commercially&extractable&is&es-mated&=>&Proven((or(proved)(Reserve.&What&frac-on&can&be&commercially&extracted?&\ Primary(recovery:&Oil&comes&to&surface&under&its&own&pressure&(natural&reservoir&drive);&maybe&assisted&with&pumps&(~15%);&\ Over&-me,&well&pressure&falls&and&natural&flow&of&oil&decreases…Secondary(recovery:(supply&of&external&energy&into&reservoir&by&injec-ng&gas&or&water&to&increase&reservoir&pressure&and&to&force&oil&out;&natural&reservoir&drive&àar-ficial&drive&(20\30&%);&&\ Ter4ary(recovery&(“enhanced&recovery”&methods,&expensive):&&increasing&mobility&of&oil&by&injec-on&of&CO2;&local&hea-ng&by&steam&injec-on;&incl.&Hydraulic(Fracturing(‘Fracking’.((5\15%).&&OWen,&more&than&half&of&the&oil&can&NOT&be&commercially&extracted&and&remains&in&the&ground!&Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 6&Oil(Reserves:(Terminology(• Oil(in(place&is&the&total&hydrocarbon&content&of&an&oil&reservoir.&• Oil(Ini4ally(In(Place&is&oil&in&place&before&the&commencement&of&produc-on.(• Oil(reserves&are&the&amount&of&technically.and.economically&recoverable&oil.&• Recovery(factor&=&ra-o&of&producible&oil&reserves&to&total&oil&in&place.&(Recovery&factors&vary&greatly&among&oil&fields&due&to&the&diversity&of&fluid&and&reservoir&characteris-cs&and&range&from&10%&to&60%.)&• (USGS&uses&the&term&“technically(and(economically(recoverable(resources“.)(Sept.&25,&2013& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 7&Reserves(Types:(• Proven(reserves&(P90/1P(reserves)&are&reserves&that&have&a&reasonable.certainty&(normally&90%&confidence)&of&being&recoverable&under&exis3ng.economic.and.poli3cal.condi3ons,.with.exis3ng.technology.&&• Probable(reserves((P50/2P)(have&50%&chance&of&recovery.&• Possible(reserves((P10/3P)(have&10%&chance&of&recovery.&Oil(Produc4on(How much oil is there to extract? • Key.concept:..• Q∞&=&&TOTAL&SUPPLY&OF&OIL&(or&whatever)&available&over&all&history.&&• It's&cumula-ve.&It&doesn't&change&with&-me,&it's&how&much&was&underground&(long&ago)&that&has&been&used&already&and&will&ul-mately&be&used&in&the&future&combined.&• We'd&like&to&know&this&number&!!!&Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 8&Clicker(Ques4on(Below&are&several&plots&of&the&produc0on1rate&vs.&-me&for&several&oil&wells—which&well&has&the&largest&Q∞,&the&total1amount&of&oil?&Q(inf)&is&just&the&area&under&the&curve.&For&A&it's&2*1&=&2.0&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&For&C&it's&πr2/2&=&π/2&=&3.14/2&=&1.57&For&B&it's&1/2(1*3)&=&1.5&&&&&&&&&&&For&D&it's&1*3&=&3.0&&& 1 2 3 4& & 1 2 3 4& &1& &2& &3& &4& &1& &2& &3& &4& &1& &2& &3& &4& &1& &2& &3& &4& &A.& &C.& &B.& &D.& & 1 2 3 4& & 1 2 3 4& &Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 9&Room&Frequency&DC&If&you&want&to&es-mate&Q∞&ahead&of&-me,&you&do¬&know&what&the&curve&looks&like&for&all&future&-me.&One&can&determine&how&much&oil&has&already&been&used&(in&the&past)&and&how&much&there&is&in&terms&of&“proven&reserves”,&but&how&can&you&es-mate&what&you&might&find&in&the&future?&Year&Imagine&the&year&is&1949.&&&&You&know&the&oil&produc-on&for&all&previous&years&and&it&keeps&increasing&every&year.&&How&can&you&possibly&es-mate&when&this&growth&(finding&new&oil)&will&stop?&Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 10&“Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.” M. King Hubbert Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 11&Enter(M.(King(Hubbert…((Hubbert&assumed&that&the&produc-on&per&year&would&follow&a&bell\shaped&curve.&&At&the&beginning&there&is&lots&of&oil&and&it&is&easy&to&find&(hence&the&rapid&rise),&then&the&best&wells&have&run&dry&and&it&gets&harder&and&harder&to&find&new&wells&and&extract&the&remaining&oil,&un-l&finally&all&the&economically&recoverable&oil&is&gone.&&It&is&easy&if&you&have&already&seen&the&peak!&&But&how&did&Hubbert&predict&this&peak&back&in&1949?&U.S.&Produc-on&peaked&around&1970&Hubbert(Peak(Sept.&17,&2014&PHYS/ENVS&3070& 12&Hubbert&did¬&just&look&at&the&increasing&produc-on&of&oil&per&year&(bbl/yr),&which&was&s-ll&rising&at&the&-me.&What&he&saw&was&that&the&rate&of&increase&was&already&slowing!&He&also&looked&at&the&rate1of1increase&in&oil&produc-on&from&year&to&year.&&Plosed&below&is&the&change&in&oil&produc-on&from&one&year&to&the&next.&Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 13&Hubbert(Peak(Hubbert&(1956):&&Q∞&=&165×109&barrels,¬&coun-ng&Alaska.&Peak&in&produc-on&will&occur&1966\1971.&&Produc-on&rate&approximately&follows&a&Gaussian&Normal&Distribu-on&as&Hubbert&assumed.&Alaska(Sept.&17,&2014& PHYS/ENVS&3070& 14&Shale(Oil(Clicker Question
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