Energy and the Environment Lecture 11 PHYS/ENVS 3070 Professor Dmitri Uzdensky Sept. 19, 2014 PHYS/ENVS 3070 1As#years#go#by,#the#proven#oil#reserves#of#a#given#country:#(A)#generally#increase;#(B)#generally#decrease;##(C)#bizarre#things#happen#to#them.###Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 2#Clicker Question Room#Frequency#DC#Announcements: • Read Chapter 2. • CAPA Homework #3 due tonight, Sept. 19, 11pm. • CAPA answers are automatically released right after Sat. 8am deadline (log into CAPA and click “View previous set” link). • No CAPA homework due next week! • Guest lecture on Monday, Sept. 22, by New York Times journalist and writer Andrew Revkin: “Getting comfortable with global warming”. Sept. 19, 2014 PHYS/ENVS 3070 3 • #Also:#A.#Revkin’s#free#talk#on#Mon.,#7pm,#CHEMW140:#"Beyond(Shame(and(Blame:(Fresh(Approaches(to(Progress(on(Humanity’s(Planet".#(if#interested,#register#at#hXp://www.cwarsvp.com)##MIDTERM EXAM I: • Friday, Sept. 26, 3:00 -- 3:50 pm, in G1B20. • A practice exam will be posted on D2L tomorrow. • Exam will have 4-6 problems, each may have several parts. • Exam will be open-textbook, but no other notes are allowed. You may need to use a calculator (but no cell phones or laptops). • Exam will cover material in lectures through this week, first 3 CAPAs, textbook sections 1-2.6. • If you require extended exam accommodations through DS, please contact me this week. Sept. 19, 2014 PHYS/ENVS 3070 4Today’s(Lecture:(• World#Oil#Produc\on#and#Reserves#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 5#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 6#How(much(oil(is(there(in(the(US? (US(Fracking/Shale(Oil(RevoluAon(Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 7#In#2013,#the#US#Energy#Informa\on#Administra\on#(EIA)#es\mated:##US(proven(oil(reserves#to#be#33.4(billion(barrels;###US(undiscovered(technically#recoverable#oil#resources#to#be#an#addi\onal((~200(billion(barrels.#####This#excludes#currently#uneconomic#resources#such#as#domes\c#tar#sands#and#oil#shale#(perhaps#1W2#trillion#barrels).#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 8#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 9#Current#crude#oil#produc\on#in#the#US#is#about###7#x#106#bbl/day#≈#2#×#109#barrels/year##Thus,#at#current#produc,on#levels,#there#are#about#16#years#of#total#oil#lef#using#proven#reserves#and#~100#years#using#undiscovered#resources.##[Oil#in#Alaska#(without#Arc\c#Na\onal#Wildlife#Refuge)#contributes#about#2W3#years].##Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 10#How(long(will(US(oil(last?((World(Proven(Oil(Reserves(• So#far,#we#have#used#up#about#1(trillion(barrels(of#oil.##• Current#proven#reserves#+#oil#already#produced:###Q∞((world)(≈(2.5×1012(barrels(=(2500(billion(barrels(• Total#es\mated#remaining#world#proven#oil#reserves#(2011):#(~((1.5×1012((barrels(#• Current#global#oil#produc\on#rate:####30(billion(barrels/year(=(3×1010(barrels/year(• Proven#reserves#will#last#roughly####50(years(!(######at#current#produc,on#level#(big#assump,on)##Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 11#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 12#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 13#(Crude#and#Condensate;#Oil#&#Gas#Journal,#2007)#(CIA#World#Fact#Book,#2009)#WHERE(IS(ALL(THIS(OIL?((Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 14#Note:#this#is#BP#2004#and#EIA#data#WWW#before#Canadian#Tar#Sands#Boom#and#US#Shale#Revolu\on.#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 15#Oil(Reserves:(OPEC(Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 16#(OPEC:#Organiza\on#of#PetroleumWExpor\ng#Countries)##43% of global oil production comes from OPEC nations. Note that there are fewer wells in the Middle East à because they are still tapping their “early” rich reserves. Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 17#Top(ten(largest(oil(reserves(by(country((2005)(Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 18#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 19#Top(ten(largest(oil(reserves(by(country((2012)(Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 20#As#years#go#by,#the#proven#oil#reserves#of#a#given#country:#(A)#generally#increase;#(B)#generally#decrease;##(C)#bizarre#things#happen#to#them.###Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 21#Clicker Question Room#Frequency#DC#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 22#OPEC(declared(reserves(1980\2009([BP(data](Constant#oil#reserves#possible#only#if#addi\on#due#to#new#discoveries#precisely#balances#reduc\on#due#to#produc\on!#OPEC(declared(reserves(1980\2009([BP(data](In#the#1980#OPEC#\ed#oil#produc\on#quotas##to#proven#reserves...#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 23#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 24#Reported#proven#oil#reserves#for#Venezuela#and#Saudi#Arabia,#1980W2011.#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 25#Effect(of(Oil(Prices(on(Oil(Reserves(Higher#oil#prices#open#up#new#produc\on#opportuni\es:##• Deep#ocean#drilling;#• Canadian#tar#sands;#• US#\ght#(shale)#oil#(e.g.,#in#Bakken,#ND,#and#Eagle#Ford,#TX).#• Arc\c#oil.#Economically(recoverable(oil(reser ve s(change(over(Ame(in(response(to(oil(price!(Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070# 26#Sept.#19,#2014# PHYS/ENVS#3070#
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