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UCSB ECON 240a - What it Takes to Make History

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What it Takes to Make HistoryTable of ContentsIntroductionWhat are we studying?Why are we studying the election?How are we studying the election?Brief SummaryExploratory Data AnalysisDescriptive StatisticsDescriptive Statistics cont.Statistical AnalysisObama vs. MinoritySlide 13Obama vs. GenderSlide 15Obama vs. AgeObama vs. ReligionObama vs. EducationObama vs. UnemploymentObama vs. IncomeObama vs. Financial StatusConclusionsMore ConclusionsWhat it Takes to Make History What it Takes to Make HistoryTorbjorn BjeringHo-Jung HsiaoEric GriffinChun-Hung LinGulsah GunencGaoyuan TianLaura BraeutigamTorbjorn BjeringHo-Jung HsiaoEric GriffinChun-Hung LinGulsah GunencGaoyuan TianLaura BraeutigamTable of ContentsTable of ContentsIntroductionBrief SummaryDescriptive StatisticsExploratory Data AnalysisStatistical AnalysisConclusionsIntroductionBrief SummaryDescriptive StatisticsExploratory Data AnalysisStatistical AnalysisConclusionsIntroductionIntroductionA lot goes into winning an election.There are many factors that can lead a candidate to victory.A campaign is based on what is important to the population.A candidate’s image will help him appeal to many different aspects of society.A lot goes into winning an election.There are many factors that can lead a candidate to victory.A campaign is based on what is important to the population.A candidate’s image will help him appeal to many different aspects of society.What are we studying?What are we studying?The 2008 Presidential electionObama vs. McCainHow do different aspects of society influence the result of the election?Why do they affect the outcome?The 2008 Presidential electionObama vs. McCainHow do different aspects of society influence the result of the election?Why do they affect the outcome?Why are we studying the election?Why are we studying the election?Monumental event in our nation’s historySomething that affects all AmericansAbundant accurate dataRecently occurredMonumental event in our nation’s historySomething that affects all AmericansAbundant accurate dataRecently occurredHow are we studying the election?How are we studying the election?Extracting data from U.S. Census Bureau50 states plus District of ColumbiaDC is an outlier!Evaluating exploratory dataLSM RegressionGenderAgeFinancial StatusEducationReligionRaceExtracting data from U.S. Census Bureau50 states plus District of ColumbiaDC is an outlier!Evaluating exploratory dataLSM RegressionGenderAgeFinancial StatusEducationReligionRaceBrief SummaryBrief SummaryObama won the election.Who support Obama?WomenYounger votersVoters with higher income Highly educated votersJewish votersMinority groupsObama won the election.Who support Obama?WomenYounger votersVoters with higher income Highly educated votersJewish votersMinority groupsExploratory Data AnalysisExploratory Data AnalysisAn approach to analyze data for the purpose of formulating hypotheses worth testing, complementing the tools of conventional statistics for testing hypotheses.Analyzing scatter diagrams to see if we can use linear regressionAn approach to analyze data for the purpose of formulating hypotheses worth testing, complementing the tools of conventional statistics for testing hypotheses.Analyzing scatter diagrams to see if we can use linear regressionDescriptive StatisticsDescriptive StatisticsDependent VariableObama election percentageIndependent VariableMinority PopulationBlackNative AmericanHispanicAsianDependent VariableObama election percentageIndependent VariableMinority PopulationBlackNative AmericanHispanicAsianIndependent VariableGenderAgeReligionChristianJewishEducationPersons with Bachelor's Degree or MoreFinancial StatusUnemployment RatePersonal Income Per Capita in Current DollarsEnergy Consumption Per CapitaHomeownership Rate Independent VariableGenderAgeReligionChristianJewishEducationPersons with Bachelor's Degree or MoreFinancial StatusUnemployment RatePersonal Income Per Capita in Current DollarsEnergy Consumption Per CapitaHomeownership Rate Descriptive Statistics cont.Descriptive Statistics cont.Statistical AnalysisStatistical AnalysisAnalyzing collected data for the purposes of summarizing information to make it more usable and/or making generalizations about a population.Analyzing collected data for the purposes of summarizing information to make it more usable and/or making generalizations about a population.Obama vs. MinorityObama vs. MinorityEffect of minority groups are positive.Asian is more supportive to Obama than other groups.All coefficients except Hispanic and Native are significant.Effect of minority groups are positive.Asian is more supportive to Obama than other groups.All coefficients except Hispanic and Native are significant.Minority = 100-whiteObama vs. MinorityObama vs. MinorityBlacksDCMinority (%)Blacks (%)MinorityDCObama vs. GenderObama vs. GenderWomen are more supportive to Obama than men.Women are more supportive to Obama than men.Obama vs. GenderObama vs. Gender0.20.40.60.81.046 47 48 49 50 51 52M ALEOBAMA0.20.40.60.81.048 49 50 51 52 53 54FEM ALEOBAMADCDC(Male %)(Female %)Male FemaleObama vs. AgeObama vs. AgeAll groups of ages have positive effect on Obama vote.The positive effect is decreasing with increase of age.All groups of ages have positive effect on Obama vote.The positive effect is decreasing with increase of age.Obama vs. ReligionObama vs. ReligionChristian voters tend not to vote Obama, but not significant.Jewish voters are supportive to Obama.Christian voters tend not to vote Obama, but not significant.Jewish voters are supportive to Obama.Highly educated voters tend to vote Obama.Highly educated voters tend to vote Obama.Obama vs. EducationObama vs. Education0.20.40.60.81.010 20 30 40 50BACHELOROBAMABachelor (%)Obama vs. UnemploymentObama vs. UnemploymentJobless voters seem to be supportive to Obama, but the coefficient is not significant.Jobless voters seem to be supportive to Obama, but the coefficient is not significant.0.20.40.60.81.02 3 4 5 6 7 8UNEMPLOYMENTOBAMAOBAMA vs. UNEMPLOYMENTUnemployment (%)Obama vs.


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