What it Takes to Make History Torbjorn Bjering Ho Jung Hsiao Eric Griffin Chun Hung Lin Gulsah Gunenc Gaoyuan Tian Laura Braeutigam Table of Contents Introduction Brief Summary Descriptive Statistics Exploratory Data Analysis Statistical Analysis Conclusions Introduction A lot goes into winning an election There are many factors that can lead a candidate to victory A campaign is based on what is important to the population A candidate s image will help him appeal to many different aspects of society What are we studying The 2008 Presidential election Obama vs McCain How do different aspects of society influence the result of the election Why do they affect the outcome Why are we studying the election Monumental event in our nation s history Something that affects all Americans Abundant accurate data Recently occurred How are we studying the election Extracting data from U S Census Bureau 50 states plus District of Columbia DC is an outlier Evaluating exploratory data LSM Regression Gender Age Financial Status Education Religion Race Brief Summary Obama won the election Who support Obama Women Younger voters Voters with higher income Highly educated voters Jewish voters Minority groups Exploratory Data Analysis An approach to analyze data for the purpose of formulating hypotheses worth testing complementing the tools of conventional statistics for testing hypotheses Analyzing scatter diagrams to see if we can use linear regression Descriptive Statistics Dependent Variable Obama election percentage Independent Variable Minority Population Black Native American Hispanic Asian Descriptive Statistics cont Independent Variable Gender Age Religion Christian Jewish Education Persons with Bachelor s Degree or More Financial Status Unemployment Rate Personal Income Per Capita in Current Dollars Energy Consumption Per Capita Homeownership Rate Statistical Analysis Analyzing collected data for the purposes of summarizing information to make it more usable and or making generalizations about a population Obama vs Minority Minority 100 white Effect of minority groups are positive Asian is more supportive to Obama than other groups All coefficients except Hispanic and Native are significant Obama vs Minority Minority Blacks DC Minority DC Blacks Obama vs Gender Women are more supportive to Obama than men Obama vs Gender Male 1 0 Femal e 1 0 DC DC 0 8 OBAMA OBAMA 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 46 0 6 0 4 47 48 49 M ALE Male 50 51 52 0 2 48 49 50 51 FEMALE Femal e 52 53 54 Obama vs Age All groups of ages have positive effect on Obama vote The positive effect is decreasing with increase of age Obama vs Religion Christian voters tend not to vote Obama but not significant Jewish voters are supportive to Obama Obama vs Education 1 0 OBAMA 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 10 20 30 40 BACHELOR Bachelor Highly educated voters tend to vote Obama 50 Obama vs Unemployment OBAMA vs UNEMPLOYMENT 1 0 OBAMA 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployme nt to Jobless voters seem to be supportive Obama but the coefficient is not significant 8 Obama vs Income OBAMA vs INCOME 1 0 OBAMA 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 INCOME Income Voters with higher income are supportive to Obama Obama vs Financial Status Voters with higher income and less energy consumption are supportive to Obama Coefficients on Homeowner and Unemployment are not significant Conclusions Surprising results Voters with higher income are supportive to Obama Coefficient for African American voters is lower than expected High energy users and home owners were not supportive More Conclusions Expected results Women Younger people Educated people Minorities
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