Movies Josh Finkelstein John Hottinger Jenny Yaillen Xiang Huang Edward Han Rory MacDonald Tyronne Martin Intro For an economist the study of econometrics or the statistical analyzing of economic data is extremely important in understanding economic phenomena By analyzing sets of past economic data economists hope to be able to discover trends and tendencies that can be used to predict future economic events with greater accuracy Cinema has strongly influenced society since its inception not only socially but economically It is not uncommon for modern movies to be produced at the cost of tens of million dollars and to achieve gross profits many times that With figures as impressive as these it is clear that movies make a discernable impact on the economy A clearer understanding of what factors influence the gross profit generated by movies is vital to predicting the impact they will have on the economy What we are studying For this study fifty high popularity movies created within the past sixty years were selected to be analyzed The aspects of the movies that were studied were the rating budget domestic gross length viewer score critic score and profit These variables were then regressed using statistical analysis to determine important relationships between variables and their relation to the revenue generated by the movies Variables 50 Rating R PG 13 PG G Observations Production Budget Gross domestically only www the numbers com www rottentomatoes com Length Viewer Rating Rotten Tomatoes Critic Rating Rotten Tomatoes Profit Gross Budget Why we are studying it Study past economic data to predict future events Better understand factors that influence economic impact of movies Understanding of past movies allow us to predict gross budget of future movies On average what type of movie ie R PG 13 PG has the highest gross and budget in millions Average Gross Budget by Rating 32 34 R 51 41 Gross Budget Rating 114 38 PG 13 138 62 70 13 PG 209 18 0 50 100 150 Budget Gross in millions 200 250 Does there seem to be a trend in what type of movies are being produced Gone with the Wind Jaws Grease Halloween Raiders of the Lost Ark Terminator Aliens 1939 G 1975 PG 1978 PG 1978 R 1981 PG 1984 R 1986 R Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade Ghost Schindler s List Forrest Gump Pulp Fiction True Lies Braveheart The American President Executive Decision Independence Day Multiplicity Scream As Good As It Gets Chasing Amy Contact Dante s Peak Good Will Hunting 1989 PG 13 1990 PG 13 1993 R 1994 PG 13 1994 R 1994 R 1995 R 1995 PG 13 1996 R 1996 PG 13 1996 PG 13 1996 R 1997 PG 13 1997 R 1997 PG 1997 PG 13 1997 R I Know What You Did Last Summer Men in Black Speed 2 Cruise Control The Fifth Element The Game Titanic Volcano Armageddon Deep Impact Hard Rain Saving Private ryan The Man in the Iron Mask Star Wars Ep I The Phantom Menace How the Grinch Stole Christmas Harry Potter and the Sorcerer s Stone Spider Man The Lord of the Rings The Return of the King Shrek 2 Star Wars Ep III Revenge of the Sith Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Man s Chest Spider Man 3 The Dark Knight Avatar Paranormal Activity Toy Story 3 Robin Hood 1997R 1997PG 13 1997PG 13 1997PG 13 1997R 1997PG 13 1997PG 13 1998PG 13 1998PG 13 1998R 1998R 1998PG 13 1999PG 2000PG 2001PG 2002PG 13 2003PG 13 2004PG 2005PG 13 2006PG 13 2007PG 13 2008PG 13 2009PG 13 2009R 2010G 2010PG 13 800 14 3400 2900 400 200 Number of Movies 12 Movies 10 0 0 20 40 60 CRIT ICRAT ING 80 100 2400 1900 8 1400 6 900 4 400 2 0 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Critic Rating 70 80 90 Does Critic Rating Effect Gross 100 Total Gross for all Movies Million 600 GROSS Histogram of Critic Ratings for Movies 16 Does Critic Rating Effect Gross Dependent Variable LNGROSS Took log Method Least Squares Date 11 27 10 Time 15 02 Sample 1 50 Included observations 50 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob CRITICRATING 0 010266 0 004614 2 224831 0 0308 C 4 248005 0 339487 12 51302 0 0000 R squared 0 093482 Mean dependent var 4 946064 Adjusted R squared 0 074596 S D dependent var 0 952939 S E of regression 0 916708 Akaike info criterion 2 703121 Sum squared resid 40 33693 Schwarz criterion 2 779602 F statistic 4 949874 Prob F statistic 0 030828 Log likelihood Durbin Watson stat 65 57803 1 133514 Is There a Relationship Between Viewer Rating and Gross Dependent Variable LNGROSS Method Least Squares Date 11 27 10 Time 15 08 Sample 1 50 Included observations 50 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob VIEWERRATING 0 017814 0 007589 2 347496 0 0231 C 3 632812 0 574099 6 327852 0 0000 R squared 0 102984 Mean dependent var 4 946064 Adjusted R squared 0 084296 S D dependent var 0 952939 S E of regression 0 911891 Akaike info criterion 2 692585 Sum squared resid 39 91414 Schwarz criterion 2 769066 F statistic 5 510737 Prob F statistic 0 023071 Log likelihood Durbin Watson stat 65 31462 1 067283 Is there a relationship between the length of a movie and it s gross Dependent Variable LNGROSS Method Least Squares Date 11 27 10 Time 15 06 Sample 1 50 Included observations 50 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob LENGTH 0 011416 0 004302 2 653518 0 0108 C 3 432083 0 584553 5 871292 0 0000 R squared 0 127925 Mean dependent var 4 946064 Adjusted R squared 0 109757 S D dependent var 0 952939 S E of regression 0 899124 Akaike info criterion 2 664386 Sum squared resid 38 80433 Schwarz criterion 2 740867 F statistic 7 041160 Prob F statistic 0 010770 Log likelihood Durbin Watson stat 64 60965 1 113324 Is there a relationship between critic and viewer ratings Dependent Variable CRITICRATING Method Least Squares Date 11 24 10 Time 00 05 Sample 1 50 Included observations 50 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob VIEWERRATING 1 209273 0 162735 7 430955 0 0000 C 21 14761 12 31142 1 717723 0 0923 R squared 0 534970 Mean dependent var 68 00000 Adjusted R squared 0 525282 S D dependent var 28 38223 S E of regression 19 55530 Akaike info criterion 8 823548 Sum squared resid 18355 67 Schwarz criterion 8 900029 F statistic 55 21909 Prob F statistic 0 000000 Log likelihood Durbin Watson stat 218 5887 2 155193 Is there a relationship between profit and viewer rating Dependent Variable PROFIT Method Least Squares PROFIT 3 00441646 VIEWERRATING 96 84122145 Date 11 24 10 Time 00 01 Sample 1 50 Included observations 50 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob VIEWERRATING 3 004416 1 051507 2 857247 0 0063 C 96 84122 79 55012 1 217361 0 2294 R squared 0 145358 Mean dependent var 124 6444 Adjusted
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