Slide 1IntroWhat we are studying?VariablesWhy we are studying it?Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Does Critic Rating Effect Gross?Is There a Relationship Between Viewer Rating and Gross?Slide 13Slide 14Is there a relationship between critic and viewer ratings?Slide 16Is there a relationship between profit and viewer rating?Slide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Slide 24Making lngross regression more significant…Slide 26Slide 27ConclusionMoviesJosh FinkelsteinJohn HottingerJenny YaillenXiang HuangEdward HanRory MacDonaldTyronne MartinIntro•For an economist the study of econometrics, or the statistical analyzing of economic data, is extremely important in understanding economic phenomena. By analyzing sets of past economic data, economists hope to be able to discover trends and tendencies that can be used to predict future economic events with greater accuracy. Cinema has strongly influenced society since its inception, not only socially but economically. It is not uncommon for modern movies to be produced at the cost of tens of million dollars, and to achieve gross profits many times that. With figures as impressive as these it is clear that movies make a discernable impact on the economy. A clearer understanding of what factors influence the gross profit generated by movies is vital to predicting the impact they will have on the economy.What we are studying?•For this study fifty high popularity movies created within the past sixty years were selected to be analyzed. The aspects of the movies that were studied were the rating, budget, domestic gross, length, viewer score, critic score and profit. These variables were then regressed using statistical analysis to determine important relationships between variables, and their relation to the revenue generated by the movies.Variables–Rating (R, PG-13, PG, G)–Production Budget–Gross (domestically only) –Length–Viewer Rating (Rotten Tomatoes)–Critic Rating (Rotten Tomatoes)–Profit (Gross-Budget)50Observationswww.the-numbers.comwww.rottentomatoes.comWhy we are studying it?•Study past economic data to predict future events•Better understand factors that influence economic impact of movies•Understanding of past movies allow us to predict gross/budget of future moviesOn average, what type of movie (ie R, PG-13, PG) has the highest gross and budget (in millions)???PGPG-13R0 50 100 150 200 250209.18138.6251.4170.13114.3832.34Average Gross & Budget by RatingGrossBudgetBudget & Gross (in millions)RatingDoes there seem to be a trend in what type of movies are being produced?Gone with the Wind 1939GJaws 1975PGGrease 1978PGHalloween 1978RRaiders of the Lost Ark 1981PGTerminator 1984RAliens 1986RIndiana Jones and the Last Crusade 1989PG-13Ghost 1990PG-13Schindler's List 1993RForrest Gump 1994PG-13Pulp Fiction 1994RTrue Lies 1994RBraveheart 1995RThe American President 1995PG-13Executive Decision 1996RIndependence Day 1996PG-13Multiplicity 1996PG-13Scream 1996RAs Good As It Gets 1997PG-13Chasing Amy 1997RContact 1997PGDante's Peak 1997PG-13Good Will Hunting 1997RI Know What You Did Last Summer 1997RMen in Black 1997PG-13Speed 2:Cruise Control 1997PG-13The Fifth Element 1997PG-13The Game 1997RTitanic 1997PG-13Volcano 1997PG-13Armageddon 1998PG-13Deep Impact 1998PG-13Hard Rain 1998RSaving Private ryan 1998RThe Man in the Iron Mask 1998PG-13Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace 1999PGHow the Grinch Stole Christmas 2000PGHarry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 2001PGSpider-Man 2002PG-13The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 2003PG-13Shrek 2 2004PGStar Wars Ep. III: Revenge of the Sith 2005PG-13Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 2006PG-13Spider-Man 3 2007PG-13The Dark Knight 2008PG-13Avatar 2009PG-13Paranormal Activity 2009RToy Story 3 2010GRobin Hood 2010PG-1302004006008000 20 40 60 80 100CRIT ICRAT INGGROSS0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000246810121416-10040090014001900240029003400Histogram of Critic Ratings for MoviesMovies (#)Critic RatingNumber of MoviesTotal Gross for all Movies ($Million)Does Critic Rating Effect Gross?Does Critic Rating Effect Gross?Dependent Variable: LNGROSSMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/27/10 Time: 15:02Sample: 1 50Included observations: 50Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. CRITICRATING 0.010266 0.004614 2.224831 0.0308C 4.248005 0.339487 12.51302 0.0000R-squared 0.093482 Mean dependent var 4.946064Adjusted R-squared 0.074596 S.D. dependent var 0.952939S.E. of regression 0.916708 Akaike info criterion 2.703121Sum squared resid 40.33693 Schwarz criterion 2.779602Log likelihood -65.57803 F-statistic 4.949874Durbin-Watson stat 1.133514 Prob(F-statistic) 0.030828Took logIs There a Relationship Between Viewer Rating and Gross? Dependent Variable: LNGROSSMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/27/10 Time: 15:08Sample: 1 50Included observations: 50Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. VIEWERRATING 0.017814 0.007589 2.347496 0.0231C 3.632812 0.574099 6.327852 0.0000R-squared 0.102984 Mean dependent var 4.946064Adjusted R-squared 0.084296 S.D. dependent var 0.952939S.E. of regression 0.911891 Akaike info criterion 2.692585Sum squared resid 39.91414 Schwarz criterion 2.769066Log likelihood -65.31462 F-statistic 5.510737Durbin-Watson stat 1.067283 Prob(F-statistic) 0.023071Is there a relationship between the length of a movie and it’s gross??Dependent Variable: LNGROSSMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/27/10 Time: 15:06Sample: 1 50Included observations: 50Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LENGTH 0.011416 0.004302 2.653518 0.0108C 3.432083 0.584553 5.871292 0.0000R-squared 0.127925 Mean dependent var 4.946064Adjusted R-squared 0.109757 S.D. dependent var 0.952939S.E. of regression 0.899124 Akaike info criterion 2.664386Sum squared resid 38.80433 Schwarz criterion 2.740867Log likelihood -64.60965 F-statistic 7.041160Durbin-Watson stat 1.113324 Prob(F-statistic) 0.010770Is there a relationship between critic and viewer ratings?Dependent Variable: CRITICRATINGMethod: Least SquaresDate: 11/24/10 Time: 00:05Sample: 1 50Included observations: 50Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. VIEWERRATING 1.209273 0.162735 7.430955 0.0000C -21.14761 12.31142 -1.717723 0.0923R-squared 0.534970 Mean dependent var 68.00000Adjusted R-squared 0.525282 S.D. dependent var 28.38223S.E. of regression 19.55530 Akaike info criterion 8.823548Sum squared resid 18355.67 Schwarz
View Full Document
Unlocking...