Power 16 1 Projects 2 Logistics Put power point slide show on a high density floppy disk for a WINTEL machine Email Llad econ ucsb edu the slide show as a PowerPoint attachment 3 Assignments 1 Project choice 2 Data Retrieval 3 Statistical Analysis 4 PowerPoint Presentation 5 Executive Summary 6 Technical Appendix Power 12 4 PowerPoint Presentations Member 4 1 Introduction Members 1 2 3 What Why How 2 Executive Summary Member 5 3 Exploratory Data Analysis Member 3 4 Descriptive Statistics Member 3 5 Statistical Analysis Member 3 6 Conclusions Members 3 5 7 Technical Appendix Table of Contents Member 6 5 Executive Summary and Technical Appendix 6 I Your report should have an executive summary of one to one and a half pages that summarizes your findings in words for a nontechnical reader It should explain the problem being examined from an economic perspective i e it should motivate interest in the issue on the part of the reader Your report should explain how you are investigating the issue in simple language It should explain why you are approaching the problem in this particular fashion Your executive report should explain the economic importance of your findings The technical details of your findings you can attach as an 7 appendix Technical Appendix Table of Contents Spreadsheet of data used and sources or if extensive a subsample of the data Descriptive Statistics and Histograms for the variables in the study If time series data a plot of each variable against time If relevant plot of the dependent Vs each of the explanatory variables 8 Technical Appendix Cont Statistical Results for example regression Plot of the actual fitted and error and other diagnostics Brief summary of the conclusions meanings drawn from the exploratory descriptive and statistical analysis 9 Slide Show Challenger disaster 10 Challenger Disaster Failure of O rings that sealed grooves on the booster rockets Was there any relationship between o ring failure and temperature Engineers knew that the rubber o rings hardened and were less flexible at low temperatures But was ther launch dat that showed a problem 11 Challenger Disaster What Was ther a relationship between launch temperature and o ring failure prior to the Challenger disaster Why Should the launch have proceeded How Analyze the relationship between launch temperature and o ring failure 12 Launches Before Challenger Data number of o rings that failed launch temperature 13 o rings 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 temperature 53 57 58 63 66 67 67 67 68 69 70 14 o rings 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 temperature 70 70 70 72 73 75 75 76 76 78 79 15 o rings temperature 0 80 0 81 16 Exploratory Analysis Launches where there was a problem 17 Orings temperature 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 58 57 70 63 70 75 53 18 3 5 3 0 ORINGS 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 0 5 50 55 60 65 TEMP 70 75 80 4 ORINGS 3 2 1 0 50 60 70 TEMP 80 90 Outline ANOVA and Regression Non Parametric Statistics Goodman Log Linear Model 21 Anova and Regression One Way Salesaj c 1 convenience c 2 quality c 3 price e E salesaj convenience 1 quality 0 price 0 c 1 mean for city 1 c 1 mean for city 1 convenience c 2 mean for city 2 quality c 3 mean for city 3 price Test the null hypothesis that the means are equal using a Wald test c 1 c 2 c 3 22 One Way ANOVA and Regression Table 5 One Way ANOVA Estimated Using Regression Dependent Variable SALESAJ Method Least Squares Sample 1 60 Included observations 60 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob CONVENIENCE QUALITY PRICE 577 5500 653 0000 608 6500 21 08844 21 08844 21 08844 27 38704 30 96483 28 86178 0 0000 0 0000 0 0000 R squared Adjusted Rsquared S E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin Watson stat 0 101882 0 070370 Mean dependent var S D dependent var 613 0667 97 81474 94 31038 506983 5 Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion 11 97977 12 08448 F statistic Prob F statistic 3 233041 0 046773 356 3930 1 525930 Regression Coefficients are the City Means F statistic Anova and Regression One Way Alternative Specification Salesaj c 1 c 2 convenience c 3 quality e E Salesaj convenience 0 quality 0 c 1 mean for city 3 price the omitted one E Salesaj convenience 1 quality 0 c 1 c 2 mean for city 1 convenience c 1 mean for city 3 the omitted city c 2 mean for city 1 minus mean for city 3 Test that the mean for city 1 mean for city 3 24 Using the t statistic for c 2 Anova and Regression One Way Alternative Specification Salesaj c 1 c 2 convenience c 3 price e E Salesaj convenience 0 price 0 c 1 mean for city 2 quality the omitted one E Salesaj convenience 1 price 0 c 1 c 2 mean for city 1 convenience c 1 mean for city 2 the omitted city c 2 mean for city 1 minus mean for city 2 Test that the mean for city 1 mean for city 2 25 Using the t statistic for c 2 ANOVA and Regression Two Way Series of Regressions Compare to Table 11 Lecture 15 Salesaj c 1 c 2 convenience c 3 quality c 4 television c 5 convenience television c 6 quality television e SSR 501 136 7 Salesaj c 1 c 2 convenience c 3 quality c 4 television e SSR 502 746 3 Test for interaction effect F2 54 502746 3501136 7 2 501136 7 54 26 1609 6 2 9280 3 0 09 Table of Two Way ANOVA for Apple Juice Sales Table 11 2 Way ANOVA of Apple Juice Sales Source of Variation Sumof Squares Degrees of Mean Square Freedom Explained between ESS treatments Strategy ESS Strat 98838 6 a 1 2 49419 3 Medium ESS Med 13172 0 b 1 1 13172 0 a 1 b 1 2 804 8 n ab 60 6 9280 3 Interaction Unexplained within ESS I 1609 6 USS 501136 7 treatments Total 54 TSS 614756 98 n 1 59 ANOVA and Regression Two Way Series of Regressions Salesaj c 1 c 2 convenience c 3 quality e SSR 515 918 3 Test for media effect F1 54 515918 3502746 3 1 501136 7 54 13172 9280 3 1 42 Salesaj c 1 e SSR 614757 Test for strategy effect F2 54 614757515918 3 2 501136 7 54 98838 7 2 28 9280 3 5 32 Nonparametric Statistics What to do when the sample of observations is not distributed normally 29 3 Nonparametric Techniques Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test for independent samples Data Analysis Plus Signs Test for Matched Pairs Rated Data Eviews Descriptive Statistics Wilcoxon Signed Rank Sum Test for Matched Pairs Quantitative Data Eviews 30 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test for Independent Samples Testing the difference between the means of two populations when they are non …
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