NBA Statistical Analysis Econ 240A Intro to Econometrics Fall 2010 Group 3 Lu Mao Ying Fan Matthew Koson Ryan Knefel Eric Johnson Tyler Nelson Grop Group 33 NBA NBA Statistical Statistical Analysis Analysis Goal What factors determine winning percentage Attendance Field Goal Rebounds for against Salary Offensive turnovers Previous season win Points per game for against Group Group33 NBA NBAStatistical StatisticalAnalysis Analysis Spreadsheet Year Team win pct salary attend ppg def ppg off fgp reb def reb off to off prev win pct 9 10 denver 0 646 74595729 17995 102 4 106 5 0 468 42 3 41 4 13 9 0 659 8 9 denver 0 659 67068631 17223 100 9 104 3 0 47 41 2 41 6 15 3 0 61 7 8 denver 0 61 81177202 17364 107 110 7 0 469 45 4 44 1 14 4 0 549 6 7 denver 0 549 65000230 17230 103 7 105 4 0 465 42 3 43 4 16 5 0 537 5 6 denver 0 537 53844460 17135 100 1 100 3 0 461 41 9 41 3 14 8 0 598 4 5 denver 0 598 45716482 17657 97 5 99 5 0 459 41 7 42 0 14 9 0 524 3 4 denver 0 524 36004731 17597 96 1 97 2 0 443 42 9 42 3 14 6 0 207 2 3 denver 0 207 40985480 14826 92 4 84 2 0 411 40 3 42 4 17 4 0 329 1 2 denver 0 329 53687498 15460 98 92 2 0 424 43 0 41 8 13 8 0 489 http basketballreference com http content usatoday com sports basketball nba salaries default aspx http www hoopsworld com Story asp story id 17840 Group Group33 NBA NBAStatistical StatisticalAnalysis Analysis Executive Summary Significant variables Points per game for against Attendance Field Goal Rebounds for Offensive turnovers Insignificant variables Rebounds against Previous season win Salary Group Group33 NBA NBAStatistical StatisticalAnalysis Analysis Figures 1 2 1 Smallest 23097398 Charlotte Bobcats Q1 51659402 5 Median 58937828 5 Q3 67526621 25 Largest 104321823 Portland Trailblazers IQR 15867218 75 Few Outliers 2 Normally distributed Salary BoxPlot BoxPlot 0 20000000 40000000 60000000 80000000 100000000 Group Group33 NBA NBAStatistical StatisticalAnalysis Analysis Figures 3 4 3 Smallest 0 146 New Jersey Nets Q1 0 402 Median 0 512 Q3 0 61 Largest 0 817 Dallas Mavericks IQR 0 208 No outliers 4 Normally distributed Win Percentage BoxPlot 0 15 0 25 0 35 0 45 Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis 0 55 0 65 0 75 0 85 0 95 Figures 5 6 9 115 8 110 7 105 6 100 5 95 4 90 3 85 2 1 80 FGP OFFENSE WIN PCT PPG DEFENSE PPG OFFENSE Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis Figures 77 8 8 Figures WIN PCT vs SALARY 12000 9 8 10000 7 WIN PCT 8000 6000 4000 6 5 4 3 2000 0 2 R EB D R EF EN SE EB O FF EN SA 1 2 00E 07 6 00E 07 SALARY SE Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis 1 00E 08 Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable WIN PCT Method Least Squares Table 1 Date 12 02 10 Time 15 05 Sample 1 260 Included observations 257 Overpowering variables Points per game Excluded observations 3 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob SALARY 1 32E 10 1 80E 10 0 731284 0 4653 ATTEND 1 52E 06 1 14E 06 1 332019 0 1841 PPG DEF 0 032102 0 000823 39 01530 0 0000 PPG OFF 0 031329 0 001123 27 90907 0 0000 FGP 0 166536 0 256154 0 650139 0 5162 REB DEF 0 000279 0 000928 0 300763 0 7638 REB OFF 0 002226 0 001621 1 373561 0 1708 TO OFF 0 002991 0 002117 1 412532 0 1591 PREV WIN PCT 0 006241 0 018925 0 329774 0 7419 C 0 424614 0 126705 3 351190 0 0009 R squared 0 948402 Mean dependent var 0 502790 Adjusted R squared 0 946522 S D dependent var 0 147270 S E of regression 0 034056 Akaike info criterion 3 883459 Sum squared resid 0 286481 Schwarz criterion 3 745363 Log likelihood 509 0245 F statistic 504 4499 Durbin Watson stat 2 071517 Prob F statistic 0 000000 Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable WIN PCT Method Least Squares Table 2 Date 12 02 10 Time 15 05 Sample 1 260 Included observations 257 Regression omitting points per game for and against Excluded observations 3 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob SALARY 1 18E 09 4 70E 10 2 517008 0 0125 ATTEND 1 05E 05 2 98E 06 3 528972 0 0005 FGP 3 558306 0 408643 8 707618 0 0000 REB DEF 0 003316 0 002240 1 480015 0 1401 REB OFF 0 027199 0 003682 7 386682 0 0000 TO OFF 0 034460 0 005153 6 687113 0 0000 PREV WIN PCT 0 288126 0 046269 6 227154 0 0000 C 1 867137 0 274358 6 805479 0 0000 R squared 0 629822 Mean dependent var 0 502790 Adjusted R squared 0 619416 S D dependent var 0 147270 S E of regression 0 090853 Akaike info criterion 1 928515 Sum squared resid 2 055311 Schwarz criterion 1 818038 Log likelihood 255 8142 F statistic 60 52146 Durbin Watson stat 1 846513 Prob F statistic 0 000000 Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable WIN PCT Table 3 Method Least Squares Date 12 02 10 Time 15 15 Sample 1 260 Regression omitting rebounds against Included observations 257 Excluded observations 3 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob SALARY 1 19E 09 4 71E 10 2 518818 0 0124 ATTEND 1 12E 05 2 95E 06 3 798803 0 0002 FGP 3 618387 0 407589 8 877547 0 0000 REB OFF 0 027214 0 003691 7 373247 0 0000 TO OFF 0 033760 0 005144 6 563525 0 0000 PREV WIN PCT 0 292058 0 046303 6 307556 0 0000 C 2 056185 0 243387 8 448228 0 0000 R squared 0 626566 Mean dependent var 0 502790 Adjusted R squared 0 617604 S D dependent var 0 147270 S E of regression 0 091069 Akaike info criterion 1 927539 Sum squared resid 2 073391 Schwarz criterion 1 830871 Log likelihood 254 6887 F statistic 69 91040 Durbin Watson stat 1 843407 Prob F statistic 0 000000 Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable SALARY Method Least Squares Table 4 Date 12 02 10 Time 15 17 Sample 1 260 Included observations 260 Checking if salary endogenous Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob WIN PCT 19793301 5569105 3 554126 0 0005 C 50886658 2919464 17 43014 0 0000 R squared 0 046675 Mean dependent var 60848094 Adjusted R squared 0 042980 S D dependent var 13468311 S E of regression 13175697 Akaike info criterion 35 63331 Sum squared resid 4 48E 16 Schwarz criterion 35 66070 Log likelihood 4630 330 F statistic 12 63181 Prob F statistic 0 000451 Durbin Watson stat 0 896121 Group 3 NBA Statistical Analysis Dependent Variable ATTEND Method Least Squares Date 12 02 10 Time 15 19 Table …
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