Violent Crime in AmericaTable of ContentsWhat are the causes of crime?Our Measures of ViolenceSlide 5Negative CorrelationsPositive CorrelationsCorrelations to ViolenceViolent Crimes vs. EthnicityViolent Crimes Regressed Against Possible Factors DataMultiple RegressionsRegression DiagnosticSlide 14Regression DiagnosticData IssuesSlide 17Crime vs. Expenditures, DC DummySlide 19ConclusionsWorks CitedViolent Crimein AmericaECON 240AGroup 4Thursday 3 December 2009Qui ckTime™ og en-dekomprime rerkreves for å se de tte bi ldet.Table of ContentsIntroductionDataDescriptive StatisticsStatistical AnalysisWhat are the causes of crime?Our team hypothesized that there may be five factors contributing to the prevalence of violent crime in a specific jurisdictionPublic Expenditures on Law Enforcement and Public SafetyPublic Firearm OwnershipEducation IncomeEthnicityQuickTime™ og en-dekomprimererkreves for å se dette bildet.Violent crimes per 100,000 people. Our Measures of ViolenceData From the 50 States and DCEducation: Percentage of public high school freshman going on to graduate high school. Poverty: Per capita income. Public Spending: per capita expenditures on state and local law enforcement and corrections. Ethnicity: percent of population that is non-white. Firearms percent of households that own guns.Freshmen that Graduate HSCost of State and Local Law Enforcement Guns Per Household Income Per Capita Percent Non-White (Minorities) Freshmen that Graduate HSCost of State and Local Law Enforcement Guns Per Household Income Per Capita Percent Non-White (Minorities)Negative Correlations Freshmen that Graduate HS and Percent Non-White (Minorities). Expenditures on State and Local Law Enforcement and Guns Per Household .Guns Per Household and Income Per Capita. Guns Per Household and Percent Non-White (Minorities). QuickTime™ og en-dekomprimererkreves for å se dette bildet.QuickTime™ og en-dekomprimererkreves for å se dette bildet.QuickTime™ og en-dekomprimererkreves for å se dette bildet.QuickTime™ og en-dekomprimererkreves for å se dette bildet.Positive Correlations Cost of State and Local Law Enforcement and Income Per Capita Cost of State and Local Law Enforcement and Percent Non-White (Minorities)Correlations to ViolencePositive Percent Non-White (Minorities) Income Per CapitaState and Local Law Enforcement ExpendituresNegative Guns Per Household Freshmen that Graduate HSAll negative and positive correlations are statistically significantViolent Crimes vs. EthnicityDependent Variable: VIOLENTCRIMEPERMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/02/09 Time: 13:25Sample(adjusted): 1 51Included observations: 51 after adjusting endpointsVariable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. PERCENTNONWHITE 9.250446 1.547537 5.977530 0.0000C 191.0509 47.71586 4.003929 0.0002R-squared 0.421698 Mean dependent var 431.6078Adjusted R-squared 0.409896 S.D. dependent var 238.3361S.E. of regression 183.0855 Akaike info criterion 13.29621Sum squared resid 1642495. Schwarz criterion 13.37197Log likelihood -337.0533 F-statistic 35.73086Durbin-Watson stat 1.972195 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 H(0): t0.025,50 =2.009 n=51 H(1): t0.025,50 ≠ 2.009α=5Percent of population that is non white is a significant explanatory variable for violent crimes per 100,000 capitaViolent Crimes Regressed Against Possible Factors DataPossible Factors R-squared t-StatisticNon-whites 0.4216980.0000Income per capita 0.0980540.0253Guns per household 0.1087230.0181Expend. on public security 0.3333220.0000Freshmen to graduate HS0.3226530.0000Multiple RegressionsDepende nt Variable: VIOLENTCRIMEPER Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/09 Time: 14:16 Sample(adjusted): 1 51 Includ ed observations: 51 after adjus ting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. AVGFRESHMANGRAD -1402.599 314.2518 -4.463295 0.0001 EXPEDITURECAPITA 0.570637 0.174902 3.262603 0.0021 HOUSEHOLDGUNS -252.7796 193.8526 -1.303978 0.1986 C 1285.674 309.1428 4.158834 0.0001 R-squared 0.535028 Mean depende nt var 431.6078 Adjusted R-squared 0.505349 S.D. dependent var 238.3361 S.E. of regression 167.6252 Akaik e info criterion 13.15652 Sum squared resid 1320615. Schwar z criterion 13.30804 Log likelihood -331.4913 F-statistic 18.02712 Durbin -Watson stat 2.134995 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 - Average freshman grad and expenditure per capita are significant.- Households with guns are no longer significant.-R-squared = 53,5%Regression Diagnostic 024681012-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500Series : ResidualsSample 1 51Observations 51Mean 1.69E-13Median -19.93613Maximum 538.9753Minimum -346.9274Std. Dev. 162.5186Skewness 0.502499Kurtos is 4.262888Jarque-Bera 5.535431Probability 0.062805 The Jarque-Bera statistic suggests that the residuals plot are normally distributed.Multiple Regressions•Minority group is still significant in explaining violence per capita.•Income per capita is not a significant explanatory variable.• Regression is significant. Prob(F-statistic) = 0.000 Dependent Variable: VIOLENTCRIMEPERMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/02/09 Time: 14:10Sample(adjusted): 1 51Included observations: 51 after adjusting endpointsVariable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. PERCENTNONWHITE 8.679604 1.597096 5.434616 0.0000PERCAPITAINCOME 0.006128 0.004682 1.308896 0.1968C -1.632381 154.6450 -0.010556 0.9916R-squared 0.441628 Mean dependent var 431.6078Adjusted R-squared 0.418362 S.D. dependent var 238.3361S.E. of regression 181.7674 Akaike info criterion 13.30036Sum squared resid 1585891. Schwarz criterion 13.41399Log likelihood -336.1591 F-statistic 18.98207Durbin-Watson stat 2.082096 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001Regression Diagnostic024681012-600 -400 -200 0 200 400Series : ResidualsSample 1 51Observations 51Mean 7.13E-14Median -25.67716Maximum 503.4726Minimum -581.7378Std. Dev. 178.0950Skewness 0.079576Kurtos is 4.774282J arque-Bera 6.743485Probability 0.034330 The Jarque-Bera p-statistic suggests that the residuals are not normally distributed.Data IssuesResiduals Regressions Residuals plotted against the fitted violent crime per capita. White Heteroskedasticity Test:F-statistic 20.93164 Probability 0.000000Obs*R-squared 23.75862 Probability 0.000007Results from the White Heteroskedasticity for violent crime per capita regressed
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