California Expenditure VS Immigration By Daniel Jiang Keith Cochran Justin Adams Hung Lam Steven Carlson Gregory Wiefel Fall 2003 Introduction What Economic significance of relationship between California Immigration and California Expenditure Why Recent California budget crisis How Propose hypothesis gather data and run regression Evaluate regression to see if H0 is rejected Original Hypothesis H0 m 0 No relationship between Immigration and Expenditure H1 m 0 Correlation exists Expenditure dependent on level of Immigration Data Population Expenditure VS Year 302000 252000 202000 Expenditure 152000 Population 102000 52000 2000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Immigration VS Expenditure Immigration VS Expenditure 90000 80000 Expenditure 70000 60000 50000 y 0 2363x 814 96 R2 0 3733 40000 30000 20000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Immigration 300000 350000 Regression Dependent Variable CAEXPENDITURES Method Least Squares Sample 1 19 Included observations 19 Variable Coefficient Std Error t Statistic Prob CAIMMIGRATION 0 236312 0 074262 3 182128 C 814 9557 14972 46 0 054430 0 9572 R squared 0 373294 Mean dependent var 0 0055 47463 47 Adjusted R squared 0 336429 S D dependent var 16294 13 S E of regression Akaike info criterion 21 92418 13273 18 Sum squared resid 3 00E 09 Schwarz criterion 22 02359 Log likelihood F statistic 10 12594 Prob F statistic 0 005453 206 2797 Durbin Watson stat 0 388539 Actual Fitted Residual Graph 80000 60000 40000 30000 20000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 2 4 6 8 Residual 10 12 Actual 14 16 Fitted 18 Result of Regression R2 Significant ratio between Explained and Unexplained 37 F stat Significant F stat value of 10 125 T stat Value indicates that regression was significant 3 182 Residual Show signs of autocorrelation when it is positive it tends to stay positive and when it is negative it also tends to stay negative General Trend Positive slope indicates that an increase in immigration would result in an increase in expenditure 80000 CAEXPENDITURES 60000 40000 20000 100000 150000 200000 250000 CAIMMIGRATION 300000 Conclusion Result of the regression helps support the alternative hypothesis there is a significant correlation between California Immigration Expenditure This confirms our initial hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between California Immigration Expenditure Arnold They keep coming Currently 3 billion spent annually on the 2 5 million illegal immigrants residing in California Only 220 million received from federal government to offset these costs This analysis supports Arnold s policy to curb illegal immigration
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