Test 3 in middle Germany and other european countries have older age group that has a pyramid concentrated towards the midle and top While most countries in africa have a really Middle aged population has median age of 36 7 and narrow top and bottom with large When bottom of the the graph is narrow that means the TFR are below replacement Italy is aging quickly and TFR are below replacement Main driver of population aging is low fertility So to reverse population aging we raise How do poplulations grow younger fertility Reversal in population aging is not immediate it takes time What a population age structure looks like has implication on what its going to look like a few years down the road Populations age structure has repercussions for future rate of increase and future population size Population momentum the potential for continued growth or shrinkage inherent in a populations age structure Concept originated in observation that population growth occurs even after a country reaches replacement level fertility When a countries birth reaches 2 1 it becomes below replacement level Replacement level depends on which country we are talking about and the average life expectancy of women Total fertility rate for replacement depends on balance of births and deaths In population with positive rate of natural increase growth continues even after In population with negative rate of natural increase shrinkage continues ager replacement level fertility is attained replacement level fertility is attained Can evaluate potential momentum with simple calculation called population momentum factor PMF crude birth rate e Exp birth per 1000 population 20 Global life expectancy 71 Didvide CBR by 1000 0 02 PMF 1 If result is greater than 1 then you have growth and momentum and possstitve momentum meaning growth will continue If it equals 1 then there is a 0 rate of natural increase If it is less than 1 PMF 1 population will continue will decrease negative Mexico momentum 1 Lie expectancy 74 2 CBR 24 3 TFR 2 29 PMF 24 74 1 776 Italy 1 Life expectancy 82 2 CBR 9 3 TFR 1 4 4 PMF 009 82 0 738 0 4408 age sructure through DT Between these two spots is a sweet spot when populTion of working age adults is growing faster than child poplation Creates potential for a demographic dividend Increase in economic productivity that may occur when population age 15 to 64 is larger than Changing age structure changes a population demography Children and the elderly consume more than they produce When the fertlity rate and elderly rate decreases the economy will grow and more attention will be given to children Demographic dividend Social security is one of the resources that is depleting Consumptions vary over the life course during childhood and in old age individuals consume but don t produce so they during the working age individuals produce more than they consume they are dependent support the dependents at houselhold level parents of fewer children have more reources to invest in health care education their own business small family tend to have more money to invest savings for future because they are able to invest their money they wil be able to save and invest in their children at population level per capital income grows faster all else equal more persons in labor forces represent potential tax dollars this creates for investment in social and economic development this week the un is meeting to discuss how poor countries might achive demographic dividend because global TFR 2 5 rate of natural increase 1 2 per year 25 of global population is between 10 and 24 1 8 billion people in Tunisia economic growth women equality and governance invest in health programs for children and women immunizations education on preventing and treating infections good nutrition reproductive health invest in high quality education system one that can adapt to changing labor market needs support for economic transitioning from labor intensive agriculture to more efficient agricultural production to diversified services and industries promote good governance corruption and inefficiency discourage economic growth established legal sysgtems contranct law and financial standards that regulates companies necessary to motivate investments by citizens and investments for foreing firms equitable access to credit property and resources enact policies that promote economic growth incentives to promote savings tax incentives for investors health economic education and governance are important for demographic dividend promising interventions stoping child marriage sexual rights prevent sexual violence was Malthus right Is population over breeding itself to where we have to many population and not enough food He is also known as the gloomy parson author of Essay of the principle of population Malthus started his observation in the beginning of the industrial revolution peoples jobs were being replaced by machines As a result there were a lot of poor young adults with children Based on his observation he came with Two natural laws Two Natural laws 1 populations grow exponentially while food supply grows in linear fashion and we would outgrow our supply of food 2 population always tend toward the limits set by subsistence Meaning population will keep growing until something dramatic happens or they over run their environment we start out with plenty of food strain on food supply leades to increased mortality as positive checks war starvation catastrophe population decline what drives the cycle malthusian cycle Passion of sex leads to the over production of population feeding into the cycle If passion between the sexes is inevitable and necessary continuation of human species can the cycle be stopped He wanted people to exercise moral restraint no sex unless you are trying to have a child Malthusian cycle Mass education instills ability to reason reason leads to understanding of preventive checks long run balance between population and resources Interpreting population change Demographic perspectives on population change address Underlying causes implied consequences demographic perspectives reflect available data preailing social beliefs Neo Malthusian perspective population pessimists contemporary perspectives Paul Enrlich Studied butterflies Population bomb 1968 the problem too many people too little food a dying planet People were distroying the planet soylent green sustainability of the human population depends on PAT population size