Loading Advertising Age 04 24 2007 01 53 PM Bob Garfield s Chaos Scenario 2 0 The Post Advertising Age By Bob Garfield Published March 26 2007 Maybe you d better lean forward Presently you will be given five reasons to consider something barely imaginable a post apocalyptic media world substantially devoid of brand advertising as we have long known it Photo Illustration John Kuczala It s a world in which Canadian trees are left standing and broadcast towers aren t It s a world in which consumer engagement occurs without consumer interruption in which listening trumps dictating in which the internet is a dollar store for movies and series in which ad agencies are marginalized and Cannes is deserted in the third week of June It is a world to be specific in which marketing and even branding are conducted without much reliance on the 30 second spot or glossy spread The new realities that are Because nobody is much interested in seeing them and because soon they unending the old media and marketing order are now clearly will be largely unnecessary visible and gaining momentum Perhaps you are already rolling your eyes Perhaps you believe that vast every day Download Ad Age chronicles the chaos The timeline Video Excerpts Garfield s Chaos 2 0 Presentation http adage com print article id 115712 structures on which vast societies and vast economies depend do not easily lose their primacy Perhaps you believe that the TV commercial and magazine spread and radio spot and newspaper classified are forever and immutable like the planets orbiting the sun Good for you Now say hello to Pluto the suddenly former planet Forever and immutable it turns out are subject to demotion This could be grim news for the agency business which continues its erratic Pluto like orbit around marketing budgets as if unaware that it has lost its stature and its relevance Page 1 of 11 Loading Advertising Age 04 24 2007 01 53 PM is next to go In due course you shall see how circumstances have conspired to threaten its place on the cosmic map altogether Video killed whom To support the analogy of planetary delisting we needn t go back 5 billion years to the origin of the solar system Instead just think back to approximately the day before yesterday Remember how they used to talk about the MTV generation It was shorthand for the post baby boomers who couldn t be stimulated unless you basically jammed kaleidoscopes in their eyeballs They had cut their teeth on the rapid fire editing and visual noise of music video so all media were obliged to pick up the pace or lose the attention of an entire generation And just in case the symbolism escaped you don t forget the first song that ever played on MTV Video Killed the Radio Star by the Buggles Ironic eh But not as ironic as this The latest thing the MTV generation has begun losing interest in is MTV where ratings fell sharply last year Short Attention Span Theater has changed venues and is now housed on YouTube Online video is killing the video star Over at MTV Networks the layoffs began in February No huge surprise there Two years ago in this very publication The Chaos Scenario predicted that the pillars of old media would soon come tumbling down That the MTV pillar had Public Enemy and George Michael and NSync posters plastered all over it and was deemed the last word in modern TV makes it especially noteworthy but by no means unique Since Chaos In December 2005 Viacom spun off CBS the so called Tiffany Network lest the broadcast business impede growth and depress shareholder value Just before Christmas 2005 Time Inc laid off 100 employees Just after Christmas in January 2006 Time Inc laid off 100 more employees In April 2006 Time Inc laid off 250 more employees the last round of job cuts the company said In January Time Inc laid off 300 more employees No wonder Since 2001 Time Warner s market capitalization has shrunk to 82 billion from 193 billion Last fall ostensibly to promote their new seasons five broadcast networks bypassed their local affiliates and gave away new programs online In October 2006 NBC announced a 750 million cost cutback including 700 jobs and a moratorium on scripted programs in the first hour of prime time In November 2006 Clear Channel the boogeyman of media consolidation sold to private equity owners and declared that it wants to unload its TV and small market radio stations The sale fetched 38 a share In 2000 the stock sold at 100 a share The Minneapolis Star Tribune acquired by McClatchy in 1998 for 1 2 billion was sold to private investors in December 2006 for 530 million In 2000 Chicago based Tribune Co was valued at 12 billion It then bought Times Mirror Co for more than 8 billion At this writing with Tribune Co for sale as a whole or in part the value of the merged company is 7 34 billion YouTube Two years ago it much less Joost and Revver and Brightcove and the online video industry in general did not exist Nor does the disruption end there Since spring 2005 according to Magna http adage com print article id 115712 Page 2 of 11 Loading Advertising Age 04 24 2007 01 53 PM Global USA DVR penetration has doubled to 20 from 10 and Forrester Research predicts it will reach half of U S households within three years well beyond the threshold at which 40 of advertisers say they will dramatically reduce their TV buys Meanwhile after years of steady growth in spite of steadily declining audiences the broadcast upfront market last year was down 5 Coca Cola never a big upfront player pulled out altogether So did Johnson Johnson which shifted 250 million online According to TNS General Motors slashed 600 million from its 2006 ad spend Is somebody nervous Half of the 109 national advertisers surveyed by Forrester in 2006 said their ad agencies and media agencies were ill equipped to deal with changes in the TV environment What me worry So what s it like to face your economic mortality There are some clues in a February speech by Timothy Balding CEO of the Paris based World This is the fourth installment of Association of Newspapers What we are seeing completely contradicts the conventional wisdom that newspapers are in terminal decline The fashion Ad Age Ad Review columnist of predicting the death of newspapers should be exposed for what it is Bob Garfield s Chronicles of the Media Revolution series in nothing more than a fashion based on common assumptions that are belied by the facts which he explores ongoing technological upheaval across the media