Political Science Notes Power Transition and China US Conflicts Ronald Tammen and Jacek Kugler Intro 1 The US risks its pre eminent status by focusing all of its resources energy and capabilities on the war on terror a American strategic thinking has grown stale i The cold war policy makers are failing to anticipate the new world 1 Their concepts are useless both in war on terrorism and in the broader effort to maintain US world leadership ii Great est challenge for the US and the world is not terrorism or regional conflict 1 It is the long term collision of interests between the US and an emerging powerful China a US needs to reevaluate a strategic perspective b Events in Asia Middle East and East Asia are important because they will demonstrate characteristics about American leadership in the changing new world i As Asia becomes the focal point of world politics Theoretical Framework through a Policy Lens 1 World politics global hierarchy a Nations States b Soft Power i NGOs 2 US is militarily dominant but not a world hegemon a Brazil China or India i These nations are regional hegemons ii Nations are satisfied with status quo and accept the rules the pre eminent nation creates manages and defends 1 Cooperating with the system because of the resulting stability prosperity and peace b Some nations are outside coalition because they challenge or reject the existing international rules and norms i In some cases these dissatisfied nations can become powerful enough to challenge the pre eminent nation for leadership in the international order ii World Wars restructure world hierarchies 1 Regional wars alter distribution of power and reorder regional hierarchies but do not change the structure of world politics c THIS IS WHERE CURRENT STRATEGIC THINKING HAS GONE ARWY i The outcomes of Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts may alter the face of terrorism and reshape the Middle East regional structuring but it will not fundamentally change the relations among CONTENDERS in the global hierarchy 1 Regional re structuring in the Middle East will not ensure long term stability for the United States a Rising China threatens the stability of the US ii Sine qua non US the pre eminent power foreign policy is global stability 1 US liberal economic and political leadership is designed to utilize incentives or sanctions to align other nations interests with their own a Diplomacy trade economic incentives b Force i Last resort force is expensive iii Force can fundamentally change global system 1 After WWII US recast international system a US altered political preferences and goals of the populations in Germany and Japan challenging nations b Changing preferences is the path to stability when conflict arises between pre eminent nations and challengers 2 Unified strategic framework would provide a guide to the future of a comples evolutionary process a Understanding of structures it allows decisions makers to anticipate periods of confrontation and cooperation i Allows policy prioritization based on strategy Dynamics of the Theoretical Framework 1 Central variables of Tammen s Strategic argument a Power hierarchy satisfaction and the probability of war and peace 2 Wars occur at the global level when a dissatisfied challenger sees an opportunity to take on the pre eminent international leader a Equal power distribution of power i Peace only occurs when major global participants all agree on the set of norms and rules that govern world politics b Global Peace is maintained when there is one overwhelmingly powerful dominant country c Power Parity key contenders in the international system challenge one another for dominance when they anticipate that the prospects of overtaking the regime leader are credible i Conflict can still take place despite strong power asymmetry but the severity of the conflict is significantly reduced d Peaceful overtaking in a power parity involves agreement on the rules that guide the hierarchy ex US taking pre eminence after WWII Britain peacefully transferred power i Agreement or disagreement with preferences in coordination with parity leads to was and peace e Integration changing preferences to align with pre eminent nations interests i Post overtaking asymmetric period 1 Does not occur when nations are at parity 2 Occurs around cores of strength where a dominant nation provided the nucleus for integration ii Hierarchy dominated by pre eminent nation produces bias towards stability 1 The cost of conflict is too high for smaller nations Policy Implications Probability of Conflict as a Global Level 1 Power parity doesn t produce peace a US USSR example 2 Power parity allows contenders to anticipate the choice between war and peace a Extended territorial dispute b Military Build ups and arms races are predictors of the willingness of contenders to choose was over peace when both parity and an extended dispute are present Empirical Implications the Asian Challenge 1 Parity challenger has over 80 of the capabilities of the dominant nation a Parity ceases when the challenger has exceeded the dominant nation s capabilities by 20 this is when the challenger becomes the dominant nation 2 US EU a There aren t any countries in the EU that can single handedly challenge the US i Ther aren t any countries in the EU that are outwardly dissatisfied with US b If the EU were to become a unified political body and become dissatisfied with the current system they could challenge the US c The US should try and integrate Russia into the Western alliance and build a strong coalition between Japan Russia and the EU the US can maintain dominance i The Asian challenge may not be avoidable but it can be postponed The Rise of China 1 US China locked in long term competition for economic primacy a China growing faster than US b Generating conditions for an overt taking in the future i Anticipated between 2025 2035 ii China in the zone of parity and potential transition with the US 1 Peace in parity only occurs when countries are satisfied iii China s parity will most likely result in military superiority because one they are at partiy on an economic level they will invest in military equipment China Dissatisfied or Satisfied 1 Territorial disputes a Taiwan seen by China as a part of its core territory prospect of war over Taiwan 2 Build up or arms race a China is building up its defense b Not necessarily an arms race i US is significantly more superior as of now 3 Is China dissatisfied with the