Political Science Notes How al Qaida Ends The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups Kurth Cronin Introduction A Main argument Past experience with the decline of terrorist organizations is vital in dealing with the current threat and that the United States and its allies must tap into that experience to avoid prior mistakes and to effect alQaida s demise a Sections of Article i Review of previous research on how terrorism declines or ends ii Examination of the endings of other relevant terrorist organizations with an eye toward determining what has worked in the previous campaigns and why iii An analysis of al Quaida s unique characteristics to determine where comparisons with other groups are appropriate and where the are not iv Addresses how what came before has implications for U S and allied policy towards al Qaida today Previous Research on How Terrorism Ends A Links Between Beginnings and Endings a Origins of terrorism persist throughout the life of terrorist organizations and shed light on sources of their eventual demise b Recognition of the interplay of internal and external forces in the evolution of terrorism is also crucial i Complex c Analyses of the role of individual operatives or their leaders i profiling terrorists and terrorist groups d Analyzing the organizational dynamics of a terrorist group i Late 20th century research concluded that terrorism is essentially a group including its shared ideological commitment and group identity analysts can isolate the means of ending its terrorist attacks ii Dynamics as a way of gaining insight to the vulnerability of the group s hierarchy weakness of its political structure etc iii Internet has changed dynamics of contemporary terrorism e Nature of the grievance that drives a terrorist organization has some bearing on the speed and likelihood of its decline i Left wing ii Right wing iii Ethno nationalist separatist 1 There is not enough research to discuss religious impetus f Because the degree to which terrorism research had been subsidized by the governments and biased by later policy imperatives the role of counterterrorism is often over emphasized B Cycles Stages Waves and Phases a Temporal pattern leads to increases and decreases in number of attacks i Understanding the life span of a terrorist movement is to search for identifiable cycles 1 Walter Enders and Todd Sandler long term analysis of terrorism trends during the late twentieth century indicates that transnational terrorist attacks run in cycles with peaks approximately every two years 2 Provides no significant insight into the decline of specific terrorist groups ii Statistical models based on assumptions to determine a specific group s decline is limited b Developmental stages through which all terrorist groups evolve especially psychological stages of growing alienation or moral disengagement for groups individuals or both i Conflict theory framework 1 Emergence escalation de escalation ii Useful in examining terrorist groups originating or operating in Western Europe do not know if this is applicable to other regions of the world in a contemporary setting iii Specific groups exhibit unique cyclical patterns 1 Driven by grievances specific to their particular group 2 enemy is defined by the nature of the group who they are not what they do c types of social movements i as a theory on the declne of terrorist groups this give more insight as to the purpose of the groups origin of an established group than revealing its decline d waves of terrorism occur with in generations 40 years i these waves are characterized by expansions and contradictions 1 transformation in communication or transportation patterns 2 new doctrine or culture ii Rapoport argues that because most individual organizations have short life spans they often disappear before the over arching wave loses force 1 The current wave of jihadist terrorism may be different because of its basis on religion C Comparative Counterterrorism Cases a Heavy state interest leads to emphasis on a comparison of counterterrorist techniques used by states over the span of each group with policy implications for current challenges b Comparative terrorism cases can fall victim to superficiality c Access to data is big problem i Difficult and dangerous to make contact with operatives or their targets ii Governments may restrict access to written sources for national security d Maintaining objectivity in studying behavior that is deliberately designed to shock can prove challenging e Researching this field over a range of terrorist groups requires generalization an risks the introduction of distortion when making comparisons How Other Terrorist Groups Have Ended A Seven explanations for or critical elements in the decline and ending of terrorist groups in the modern era a Capture or killing of the leader i Depends on the structure of the organization cult of personality and the presence of a viable successor b Failure to transition to the next generation i Supports theory that terrorism is generational ii Group need to have a well articulated vision of their goals that could be handed douwn to successors after the first generation of radical leaders departed or were eliminated c Achievement of the group s aims i Some terrorist groups cease to exist once they have fulfilled their original objective ii Walter Laqueur groups that achieve their goals into three categories 1 Those with narrow clearly defined aims that were realistically attainable 2 Those with powerful outside protectors 3 And those facing imperial powers that were no longer willing or able to hold on to their colonies or protectorates d Transition to a legitimate political process i Groups that have transitioned to political legitimacy and away from terrorist behavior 1 Can result in counter productive splintering e Undermining of popular support i Groups need active or passive support from the surrounding population ii Without it the group will die Needs to be protected from attack and needs finances all of which require either active or passive support f Repression i Terrorist use asymmetrical violence because they are unwilling or unable to meet the status quo government o the battlefield 1 Military intervention and repression is a force that is readily available to the state and controllable a This can lead to export of the terrorist problem to another country or can be counterproductive or temporary b This is hard to do in a democracy and leads to