Political Science Class Notes Al Qaida and Affiliates Historical Perspective Global Presence and Implications for U S Policy John Rollins Summary A Al Qaida in 2001 core cadre of veterans of the Afghan insurgency against Soviet Union a Centralized leadership structure b Mostly Egyptians c Plots emanated form the top of the organization B Al Qaida now diffuse global network and philosophical movement composed of dispersed nodes with varying degrees of independence a Franchise i Yemen Somalia et 1 Affiliates receive money weapons training 2 Some still look to the central core leadership in Pakistan for strategic guidance theological justification and larger narrative of global struggle b Less centralized command and control with on clear center of gravity and likely rising and falling centers of gravity depending on where the US and the international focus is for that period i Harder to detect possibly more lethal c Semi autonomous or self radicalized actors who often have only peripheral or ephemeral ties to either the core cadre in Pakistan or affiliated groups elsewhere d The dispersion of Al Qaeda affiliates fits into the larger strategy of Bin laden and his associates e Qaeda means base or foundation C Understanding the origins of al Qaeda is key to developing sound US strategies D Focus of this report is on the history of Al Qaeda known or attributed actions and suspected capabilities of the organization and non aligned entities and an analysis of selected regional Al Qaeda affiliates Background 1 Al Qaeda movement has transformed a The views and goals of new affiliates leaders and recruits have evolved and become more diverse b Continue to desire to attack the United States and its global interests c Debate on whether Al Qaeda is declining or gaining strength i Will they make a grand attack 9 11 in the future Or are they incapacitated to carry out such an attack 2 Jihad Al Qaeda and the other Violent Islamist Groups a The concept has been understood by Muslims in various ways over time to include fighting quital against thos who oppose the advancement of islam ot who harm Muslims Fundraising for Islamic causes proselytizing doing charitable work and struggling against personal desires i Sunni and Shi a religious texts such as collections of sayings and deeds of the prophet Mohamed most often referred to Jihad in terms of religiously approved fighting on behalf of Islam and Muslims ii Mobilize Muslims for collective action b Islamists individuals who support a formal political role for Islam through the implementation of Islamic law sharia by stat political action through a religious party or the creation of a religious system of governance c Jihad and Al Qaeda i Shared view of jihad as first and foremost and individual duty to fight on behalf of Islam and Muslims in some cases to offensively attack Muslims or non Muslims who are deemed insufficiently Pious or who oppose enforcement of Islamic principles and religious law ii Illegitimacy of democracy iii At odds with other Muslims d Jihad is a contested topic of discussion for Muslims and non Muslims Origins Of Al Qaeda 1 Bin Laden 1957 2011 studied at King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah Saudi Arabia a Mohammad Qutb Abdulla Azzam i Jihad against Soviet occupation 1979 1989 b Went to Afghanistan in 1979 i Donated to the mujahedin volunteers for the war anti Soviet ii Bin Laden and Azzam structured the maktab al Khidamat service office also known as the Khifah 1 Maktab monetary donations to the jihad and recruitment of jihad organizational forerunner of Al Qaeda 2 US viewed the volunteers to fight aginst the Soviets as a good thing and made on effort to stop recruitment of the non Afghanistan volunteers for the war 3 Bin Laden and Azzam wanted the volunteer work from Muslims to be utilized after the war against Soviets a Al Qaeda base or foundation termed in 1988 b rapid reaction force available to intervene wherever Muslims were perceived to be threatened 4 Azzam assassinated in 1989 most likely by Bin Laden a Bin Laden becomes the director of the Maktab s funds and organizational mechanisms The Threat Unfolds 1 1990 Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait reinforced Bin Laden s turn from de facto US ally against the Soviet Union into one of its most active adversaries a Bin Laden did not want US troops in Saudi Arabia He wanted the Saudi government to support a Mujahedin army to oust the Iraq from Kuwait i Saudi government chose US help causing Bin Laden s falling out with the Saudi government ii Although the post 1991 US force in Saudi Arabia was relatively small and confined to Saudi military facilities Bin Laden and his followers painted the US force as aoccupiers of sacred Islamic ground and the Saudi royal family as facilitator of that occupation b Bin Laden and Zawahiri believed that the only way to bring Islamic regimes to power was to oust from the region the perceived backer of secular regional regimes the United States i Al Qaeda was transformed in 1990 s to a global threat to US national security 9 11 ii By 9 11 Al Qaeda had become a coalition of factions of radical Islamic groups operating throughout the Muslim world mostly groups opposing their own governments Afghanistan 1 Background and Threat Assessment a Afghanistan main base for Al Qaeda 1996 2001 supported by the Taliban i Operation Enduring Freedom began 10 7 2001 and is still going on drove out most of the Taliban and the Al Qaeda leaders ii 98 000 US forces plus 41 000 forces from partner countries in Afghanistan 1 objective to deny Al Qaeda safe haven in Afghanistan and to deny the Taliban the capacity to overthrow the government 2 Implications for US policy Targeting leaders of Al Qaeda experts with in Al Qaeda air strikes on their resources a More common under Obama strategy proven helpful Pakistan 1 Background and Threat Assessment a AL Qaeda is widely believed to maintain camps in Western Pakistan where foreign etremists receive training in terrorist operations i 150 Westerners reportedly have attended b Military pressure mounted on Al Qaeda camps may have become smaller and more mobile i Recruits still continue ii Al Qaeda s sanctuary in Pakistan still remains a crucial threat 1 Homeland attack capability Pakistan is a safe haven for AQ c Obama has accelerated the pace of unmanned aerial vehicle strikes drones in western Pakistan i Analysts worry that successful drone attacks are driving Al Qaeda members into the cities which makes them harder to get d Despite