Political Science Notes The Democratic Peace Idea The Rand Corp A The Democratic Peace Proposition a Widely accepted among political scientists b absence of war between democratic states comes as close as anything we have to an empirical law in international relations c Democracies are less likely to fight wars with each other i Democracies tend to prevail in wars they fight with nondemocracies ii In wars they initiate democracies suffer fewer casualties and fight shorter wars that non democracies iii Democratic states locked in disputes with each other choose more peaceful means of resolution than other pairings of states iv Democratic great powers do not initiate preventive wars d Explanations of the democratic peace typically fall into one or a combination of three main ideas i Democratic institutions place constrains on the ability of leaders to fight other democracies or simply make them reluctant to choose war 1 Constitutional and legal restrictions prevent leaders from engaging in wars 2 Institutions give democracies lime to work out disputes 3 Political elites want to be reelected and therefore will not engage in wars that could result in policy failure also when they do engage in war they will fight hard to win 4 They will not fight wars they don t think they will win ii Norms shared by democratic states cause them to view each other as pacific and unthreatening 1 Democratic states are predictable reasonable and stable 2 live and let live pacific nature iii Democracy tends to foster economic interdependence which reduces the likelihood of war 1 Democratic states have free market economies 2 Credible commitments regarding the terms 3 Interdependence promotes peace by increasing contacts among democracies and contributing to mutual understanding 4 More inclined to trade trade tends to decrease the benefits of conquest e Caveats in the theory examples and arguments that go against the Democratic peace theory the idea that democratic states are less likely to fight wars with each other i Probabilistic not deterministic war between democratic nations is unlikely but still possible ii Defense intelligence competition among peer competitors iii Democratic nations are not immune from security competition and wars with non democracies both of which could bring them into conflict with the US iv Democratizing state may be may be more war prone not universally accepted argument 1 Democratization leads to the establishment of a number of politically significant groups with diverse and sometimes conflicting platforms Syria 2 Threatened elites have an impetus to mobilize allies among the mass population sometimes along nationalist lines 3 State authority in general is weak and unstable 4 In summation the process of democratization is characterized by turbulence and uncertainty that can lead to war Especially when elites attempt to retain or increase mass support by utilizing nationalist or populist themes during the democratization process triggers elite logrolling v Perceptions of other democracies as peaceful and friendly can change if there is substantial security or economic competition 1 Perceptions of democracies a Externalize their domestic norms of tolerance b Compromise rather than elimination c Live and let live d International law entreats democratic states to harbor mutual respect for each other Kant 2 These perceptions can change rapidly with security or economic completion vi Democracies may resort to proxy wars or covert action rather than direct conflict Cold War vii There have been numerous periods of democratic reversals in history and there may be some in the future History has shown us that reversals can lead to aggressive foreign excursions viii Democratic peace may be an example of high correlation rather that causation making it of questionable utility for intelligence purposes B Causation Vs Correlation a Correlation the state or relation of being correlated specifically a relation exits between a phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tand to vary be associated or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone There is a strong correlation between democratic states and peace i Correlation does not necessarily lead to causation democratic states do not necessarily cause peace though they may be correlated b Causation the act or process of causing the act or agency which produces an effect cause and effect i causation implies that X and Y are strongly correlated because X causes Y Obesity and diabetes are strongly correlated it is known that obesity causes diabetes if you are obese you will most likely get diabetes However the reverse is not true if you have diabetes you will not necessarily become obese c Correlation of democratic peace theory opponents of the DPT i First If democratic institutions had pacifying effect on leaders through constitutional and legal restraints free public debate desire to be reelected then they would be peaceful with all states There would be no conflicts between democratic nations ii Second normative arguments do not reduce the likelihood of conflict between democratic states because democratic states can still engage in security competition utilize covert action and change the perceptions of other democratic states depending on the context 1 Wars between democracies have been averted because of adverse distributions of military capabilities and concerns that other states would take advantage of the fight not because of normative live and let live reasons iii Third interdependence may promote war as well as peace 1 It may cause peace by augmenting contacts between states contributing to mutual understanding and economic gain 2 It may cause war because it increases the occasions for conflicts that may promote resentment or even war brazil cotton fiasco a Interdependence way be an effect of peace rather than a cause correlation versus causation iv Fourth Peace between democracies during the post1945 period may have been a function of alliance patterns caused by the Cold War rather than democratic peace explanations d Causation in terms of the Democratic peace theory i With in the last two years there has been an emergence of a causal empirically tested linkage between democracy and peace 1 The crucial variable is in the presence of a multitude of pacifying mechanisms in democracies that generally do not allow disputes to develop to a point of crisis 2 If the disputes actually