Political Science Notes Iran and the Bomb Waltz Why Iran Should Get the Bomb 1 Iran getting the bomb would create a more durable balance of military power in the Middle East a A nuclear Iran would yield more stability 2 History has shown that the pajor powers always get riled up whenever another country has begin to develop a nuclear weapon of its own Yet so far every time another country has acquired nuclear weapons the other members learn to deal with it a Reducing imbalances in military power nuclear states generally produce more regional and international stability 3 Israeli s regional monopoly has long fueled instability in the Middle East a Israel s nuclear arsenal that has created the crisis i Israel wants to remain the sole nuclear power in the region and why it is willing to use force to secure that status ii Balance of military power must be restored end the Middle Eastern nuclear crisis 1 Israel s ability to strike potential rivals with impunity is dangerous for other states in the region fuels instability because the other nations have limited security 4 Danger of nuclear Iran grossly over exaggerated a Fundamental misunderstandings on how states work in the international system i Iran is not irrational 1 The leaders of Iran are acting logically relatively to their security situation 2 No propensity for self destruction 3 Most likely for its own security 5 History shows that when countries acquire the bomb they feel increasingly vulnerable and become acutely aware that their nuclear weapons make them a potential target in the eyes of major powers a This awareness discourages nuclear states from bold aggressive action i Maoist china 1 less bellicose after acquiring nuclear weapons in 1964 ii India and Pakistan have both become more cautious since going nucear 6 Iran will not likely hand over the nuclear bomb to terrorists because the risk of being found out is too high a US surveillance capabilities would pose a serious obstacle i US ability to identify the source of fissile material b Terrorist groups are un predictable c Iran would want to keep full control over its arsenal i Bomb is costly and dangerous 7 Chances of a Nuclear arms race in the middle east is unlikely because after 70 years with the bomb in international Iran would only be the second middle Eastern country with it hardly proliferation which means rapid and uncontrollable spread a When Israel acquired the bomb the threat of security the incentive to make the bomb for other states in the international system wer much higher i Israel s acquisition did not cause an arms race why would Iran 8 If Iran goes nuclear than Israel and Iran will deter each other as nuclear powers always have a There has never been a full0scale war between two nuclear states b Once Iran crosses nuclear threshold deterrence will apply even if Iranian arsenal is relatively small c History has shown that where nuclear capabilities emerge so too does stability