Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary Published September 2002 by Polish Market Review Polish Market Review Ltd Market Intelligence for Business Professionals Polish Market Review will not be held liable for the consequences of decisions taken on the basis of the information presented in this report All rights reserved Parts of this publication may be reproduced provided that Polish Market Review www polishmarket com is given as the source All data in this report other than sourced as Polish Market Review was obtained from published publicly available information Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary Table of contents Polish Market Review methodology Executive summary 7 9 Part I Political outlook Diminishing support for the government New tasks of the National Bank of Poland Poland has a new Finance Minister 13 14 16 Part II EU accesion update State of European Union accession preparations after the first seven months of 2002 19 Poland s readiness 19 EU readiness for Poland s accession When will accession happen EU accession implications 22 24 24 Part III Economic outlook Polish economic development forecast for the years 2002 2006 27 Initial comments www polishmarket com 27 3 Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary The midyear 2002 economic situation and chances of recovery 29 Synthesis of the forecast for the years 2002 06 31 Conditions for growth in the Polish economy in the years 2002 2006 as well as assumptions to the forecast 32 Economic growth in Poland in the years 2002 2006 35 Poland s economic policies in light of the challenges of lower growth and integration with the EU 38 Part IV Key sector overview Industrial output in 2002 39 Automotive industry signs of improvement in the second quarter 48 Chemicals higher growth will come together with consumer wealth 50 Construction mixed signals 52 Electrical machinery and equipment stimulus will come from abroad 55 Food and beverages oversupply IT gradual increases 57 59 Textiles and clothing declining foreign trade 61 Part V Privatisation update Privatization progress in Poland during the period January June 2002 65 Privatization plans accepted or under government discussion in the first half of 2002 by sector 69 Part VI Business environment Labor market in the first six months of 2002 4 75 www polishmarket com Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary Labor costs 80 Polish government policy towards foreign investors 82 Corruption in Poland 85 Statistical data summary List of tables List of graphs 87 97 99 Information on Polish Market Review www polishmarket com 101 5 Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary 6 www polishmarket com Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary Polish Market Review methodology Polish Market Review reports combine desk research in house data analysis and original research to get the most up to date information available on a given sector of the market In desk research sources of information include newspapers trade magazines and the Internet as well as free and paid research reports prepared by leading market research companies PMR always verifies the validity of the data published regardless of the source Only experienced and quality sources of information are quoted All company information presented is verified through PMR interviews with company spokespersons and management www polishmarket com 7 Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary 8 www polishmarket com Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary Executive summary Political outlook n Public opinion polls in July 2002 registered the lowest support for both the government and the Prime Minister since the beginning of the new coalition government In July 2002 60 of Poles gave low ratings to the Prime Minister s performance while 70 did the same in relation to the government As a result of the decline in popularity of the SLD UP coalition and the severe fragmentation of the right wing electorate the radical populist and anti EU movement known as Self Defense has become the third most popular political force in Poland n In the first half of 2002 the Prime Minister and other government members blamed the unfavorable economic situation in Poland on the Monetary Policy Council MPC A majority of parliamentary deputies approved a motion submitted by the Polish Peasant Party PSL to expand the number of members in the MPC from 10 to 16 members The draft bill was submitted for further parliamentary deliberation If the bill is accepted it would considerably limit the independence of the Monetary Policy Council The President declared that he would protect the independence of the MPC and not support the new law unless it complies with the constitution n On July 3 2002 Marek Belka Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance in the SLD UP coalition government officially resigned from his ministerial post Grzegorz Ko odko was appointed the new Minister of Finance EU accession outlook n During the first seven months of 2002 Poland became one of those countries most advanced in accession negotiations During the March 2002 round of negotiations Poland closed two chapters taxation and free movement of capital bringing the number of chapters closed to 22 out of 30 Having closed another two chapters in June 2002 fisheries and transport as well as the justice and domestic affairs chapter in July 2002 Poland made significant progress in its efforts to join the European Union n Support for EU enlargement among Poles remains stable with 57 of the population in favor of enlargement and 28 against www polishmarket com 9 Poland 2002 2006 Midyear Summary n The EU is not yet ready for enlargement which is planned for 2004 when the European Union will admit 10 new members Such enlargement cannot take place without institutional reforms within the EU that would enable the EU to function within the new enlarged framework The most controversial issues to be set aside for later discussion and requiring the EU to adopt a common stance include agriculture regional policy and financial and budgetary provisions n Support for enlargement among EU citizens remains stable with 50 of EU citizens being in favor of enlargement and 30 against EU countries where support for enlargement is below the EU average are Austria France Germany and the UK n Accession to the EU is a long term process and the moment of accession will not have an immediate impact on the Polish economy Poland is expected to benefit from EU accession both during the period prior to accession as well as after it enters the European Union Various assessments of additional
View Full Document
Unlocking...